Health care futures. Part 2: The future of physician executives? Panel discussion

What is the future of health care in America? This is Part 2 of The Physician Executive panel discussion that explores the future of health care in America. To narrow this ambitious focus somewhat, the future is defined as five to 10 years hence. In Part 1, which was published in the May/June issue, Russell C. Coile, Jr., Barbara LeTourneau, MD, MBA, FACPE, James Reinertsen, MD, Uwe Reinhardt, PhD, Marshall Ruffin, MD, MPH, MBA, FACPE, and David Vogel, MS, shared their opinions about what the future holds in managed care, information technology, and biotechnology. In Part 2, Susan Cejka, Barbara LeTourneau, MD, MBA, FACPE, John Henry Pfifferling, PhD, Uwe Reinhardt, PhD, and James Todd, MD, share their views on the future of medical education and physician executives.     

Organizational politics: did you hear?

How do you define organizational politics? The underground system of communication, the grapevine, what's really going on in the organization, rumors, knowing who really has the power? However you define it, all sources agree you'd better not ignore it. According to one physician executive: "Organizational politics is how things really get done, who really has the power, how decisions get made. Things are not always what they appear to be on the organizational chart." Presented here are some thoughts about organizational politics from physician executives and their stories of when it helped or hurt their careers or prevented them from accomplishing something in their organizations.     

Making borders stick: population transfer and resettlement in the Trans-Curzon territories, 1944-1949

"Designed in 1919-20 by the British mediator Lord Curzon as an armistice proposal between the then warring powers Poland and Soviet Russia, the Curzon Line served to identify the maximum territorial reach of Soviet political influence in Europe....[The author discusses] a program of resettlement which would target communities on both sides of the new border, a policy eventually affecting some 1.4 million individuals...." The implementation and impact of this population exchange are described.     

Counterurbanisation and rural depopulation revisited: landowners,planners and the rural development process

"This paper reopens the debate between Weekley (1988) and Rowsell (1989) over why pockets of depopulation have persisted within parts of rural Britain which have experienced net growth through counterurbanisation. It argues that Weekley has not fully appreciated the context for local population losses, namely the emergence of a new structural relationship between people, households, and dwellings, and the growing tension between production and consumption interests in rural locales. Moreover, the paper disputes claims that depopulation is triggered by the actions of either the landowner or the planner. Drawing on case study material informed by critical realism, it argues that planners and landowners have been drawn into an asymmetrical power relationship. This has tended to buttress landed interests and, in so doing, reproduce mechanisms which protect the less populous communities from growth and change."     

Migration as a consumption activity

"While a generalized utility maximization approach to migration decisionmaking is not innovative, the principal extensions of this paper involve the search for an instrument capable of measuring changes in utility levels consistent with all preferences (i.e., with all forms of utility functions), requiring only data on observed behaviour. Our approach is to construct a Location-Specific Utility Index (LSUI), whose component variables serve as proxies for the arguments in [U.S.] households' utility functions.... The testable hypothesis is formulated as follows: Assuming constant household preferences and expansion of the household's feasible set over time, the household's utility level is greater following the migration decision.... The results are compared with the households' migration decisions. The empirical evidence shows that migration may reasonably be modelled as a consumption activity by households to maximize utility." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Evaluation design for a community prevention trial. An environmental approach to reduce alcohol-involved trauma

The Community Prevention Trial was 5-year effort to reduce alcohol-involved injuries and death through a comprehensive program of community awareness and policy activities. The three experimental communities were of approximately 100,000 population each (one in Northern California, one in Southern California, and one in South Carolina). Matched comparison communities were used for each experimental community. This article describes the evaluation approach used in a program that sought to change environmental factors not a specific population or target group. This approach demanded unique evaluation approaches for determining overall community aggregate effects, that is, distal outcomes, as well as changes in key mediating variables, that is, process effects. The problem of trending and lagged effects of community prevention programs are discussed.     

Long-term impact of Drug Abuse Resistance Education (D.A.R.E.). Results of a 6-year follow-up

The long-term effectiveness of Drug Abuse Resistance Education (D.A.R.E.) was assessed by contrasting drug use and other D.A.R.E.-related attitudinal latent variables among 356 twelfth-grade students who had received the program in the 6th grade with 264 others who did not receive it. A prior study of these subjects when they were in 9th grade had shown no significant differences. A follow-up survey in 12th grade assessed central D.A.R.E. concepts such as self-esteem, police bonds, delay of experimentation with drugs, and various forms of drug use. Although the authors found no relationship between prior D.A.R.E. participation and later alcohol use, cigarette smoking, or marijuana use in 12th grade, there was a significant relationship between earlier D.A.R.E. participation and less use of illegal, more deviant drugs (e.g., inhalants, cocaine, LSD) in a development sample but not in a validation sample. Findings from the two studies suggest a possible sleeper effect for D.A.R.E. in reference to the use of harder drugs, especially among teenage males.     

Comparing measures of poverty and relative deprivation: an example for Belgium

This paper presents three different poverty standards. A first approach takes the disposable income as an indicator of poverty. A second approach uses the Leyden approach. Finally an aggregate index of deprivation, based on the observation of consumption events, is constructed through a particular econometric procedure proposed by Desai and Shah (1988). These alternative measures are then compared on a sample composed of 6380 Belgian households. Such an analysis can be expected to provide some further insight into the problem of measuring poverty, which has been the subject of a recent controversial debate.We thank the participants of the Second Annual Meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, June 23–25, 1988, Mannheim (FRG), L. Gevers, J. Lindsey, P. Pestieau, B. Sak, K. Van den Bosch and two anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions.     

Will a large-scale migration of Russians to the Russian Republic take place over the current decade?

The author discusses "the likely scale of in-migration from the other former union republics into the Russian Republic over the remainder of this decade....I believe that during the 1990s there will be continued mass in-migration into Russia from the seven former union republics of Central Asia and the Transcaucasus....I also foresee that Russians will continue to leave such inhospitable milieux as southern Kazakhstan and western Ukraine."