A Multifactorial Risk Prioritization Framework for Foodborne Pathogens

We develop a prioritization framework for foodborne risks that considers public health impact as well as three other factors (market impact, consumer risk acceptance and perception, and social sensitivity). Canadian case studies are presented for six pathogen‐food combinations: Campylobacter spp. in chicken; Salmonella spp. in chicken and spinach; Escherichia coli O157 in spinach and beef; and Listeria monocytogenes in ready‐to‐eat meats. Public health impact is measured by disability‐adjusted life years and the cost of illness. Market impact is quantified by the economic importance of the domestic market. Likert‐type scales are used to capture consumer perception and acceptance of risk and social sensitivity to impacts on vulnerable consumer groups and industries. Risk ranking is facilitated through the development of a knowledge database presented in the format of info cards and the use of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to aggregate the four factors. Three scenarios representing different stakeholders illustrate the use of MCDA to arrive at rankings of pathogen‐food combinations that reflect different criteria weights. The framework provides a flexible instrument to support policymakers in complex risk prioritization decision making when different stakeholder groups are involved and when multiple pathogen‐food combinations are compared.     

Australia's Changing Population Structure

The approach of equilibrium has been greeted with forebodings of labour shortages and of inability to populate growth centres or develop resources; further large scale immigration has been recommended and it is claimed that Australia can accommodate many times its present population. These forebodings are challenged. The population structure will become more normal and the workforce will continue to grow, its skills depending upon training and rewards. Growth centres are an alternative to further expansion of capital cities and imply fewer at risk of poverty and less risk to the environment.     

Does the marriage market sex ratio affect parental sex selection? Evidence from the Chinese census

Recent increases in the (male/female) sex ratio at birth in eastern Asia are thought to be associated with a preference for sons and to result from parental sex selection. However, males are less likely to marry and to have offspring as the ratio increases, and that decreases the expected number of grandchildren. Using data from the 2000 Chinese census, we test whether the sex ratio in the marriage market has an effect on the gender of subsequent births and hence on the sex ratio of the birth cohort. The slow population growth caused by the Great Famine in the early 1960s and the quick recovery that followed produced major changes in the sex ratio for those of marriageable age two decades later. We estimate that an increase of 1 % in the number of marriageable males relative to females, the marriage market sex ratio, would decrease the probability of having a son by 0.02 percentage points. That implies that the Great Famine, which occurred around 1960, led to an increase in the early 1980s of 5.8 extra male births per 100 females.     

Women's sexual experience during the menstrual cycle: identification of the sexual phase by noninvasive measurement of luteinizing hormone

Imprecise measures of ovulation obscure the relationship between women's sexuality and the menstrual cycle, as does studying women with different contraceptive goals in different social contexts. Here we present a novel noninvasive method to precisely pinpoint the preovulatory surge of Luteinizing Hormone (LH), demarcating hormonally distinct cycle phases with greater than 95% reliability. Women were more sexually active on days prior to and including the preovulatory (LH) surge. This pattern was evident only when women initiated sexual activity and not when their partners did, indicating an increase in women's sexual motivation rather than attractiveness. A second study replicated the 6-day increase in sexual activity beginning 3 days before the LH surge, accompanied by stronger sexual desire and more sexual fantasies. We propose the term 'sexual phase' of the cycle, since follicular phase is over inclusive and ovulatory phase is not sufficient. These findings are striking because the women were avoiding pregnancy and were kept blind to the hypotheses, preventing expectation bias. The sexual phase was more robust in women with regular sexual partners, although the increase in sexual desire was just as great in nonpartnered women, who also reported feeling less lonely at this time. We use these results to evaluate potential neuroendocrine mechanisms underlying women's sexual motivation and activity.     

A comment on De Jong and Sell's 'Changes in childlessness in the United States: A demographic path analysis'

Abstract I found De Jong and Sell's recent paper! to be a study in contrasts. On the one hand, the authors have done a good job of scouring the literature for information pertinent to their work. It is evident from the breadth of sources cited that they were both persistent and thorough in this task. I also found their discussions of possible explanations for changing patterns of childlessness to be very good.     

Great Expectations: Voluntary Sports Clubs and Their Role in Delivering National Policy for English Sport

Voluntary sports clubs (VSCs) account for about a quarter of all volunteering in England. The volunteers work in a mutual aid, self-production, self-consumption system whose main purpose is identifying and nurturing high-level performers. But the new HMG/Sport England strategies leading to London 2012 expects volunteers to make a major contribution to sustaining and extending participation. The study utilized six focus group sessions with a total of 36 officials and members of 36 clubs across the six counties of Eastern England to assess whether and to what extent government policy objectives can be delivered through the voluntary sector. The study focused on the perceptions and attitudes of club members about being expected to serve public policy and the current pressures they and their clubs face. The results lead the authors to question the appropriateness, sensitivity, and feasibility of current sport policy, particularly the emphasis on VSCs as policy implementers.     

Breaking bad: an attachment perspective on youth mentoring relationship closures

Endings in youth mentoring relationships have received little attention to date despite the frequency with which they occur. In this paper, we bring an attachment theory perspective to bear on youth mentoring relationship closures and consider how the rich empirical and theoretical literature on attachment can inform mentoring programme practice and possibly help prevent premature and poorly handled mentoring relationship endings. We consider what is known about endings in youth mentoring relationships, articulate an attachment perspective on mentoring relationships and their endings and offer recommendations informed by these literatures for how mentoring programmes can promote positive closure when relationships come to an end.     

Time series analysis and stochastic forecasting: An econometric study of mortality and life expectancy

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee-Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning. All correspondence to Frank T. Denton. This paper is a revised version of one presented at the Annual Congress of the European Society for Population Economics, Athens, Greece, June 2001. The underlying work was carried out as part of the SEDAP (Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population) Research Program supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Statistics Canada and the Canadian Institute for Health Information. Ronald Lee provided comments that were very helpful in revising an earlier version of the paper. We thank him and participants at the ESPE session at which that version was presented. We thank also the Journal's anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.