Competing Failure Risk Analysis Using Evidence Theory

Safety systems are important components of high-consequence systems that are intended to prevent the unintended operation of the system and thus the potentially significant negative consequences that could result from such an operation. This presentation investigates and illustrates formal procedures for assessing the uncertainty in the probability that a safety system will fail to operate as intended in an accident environment. Probability theory and evidence theory are introduced as possible mathematical structures for the representation of the epistemic uncertainty associated with the performance of safety systems, and a representation of this type is illustrated with a hypothetical safety system involving one weak link and one strong link that is exposed to a high temperature fire environment. Topics considered include (1) the nature of diffuse uncertainty information involving a system and its environment, (2) the conversion of diffuse uncertainty information into the mathematical structures associated with probability theory and evidence theory, and (3) the propagation of these uncertainty structures through a model for a safety system to obtain representations in the context of probability theory and evidence theory of the uncertainty in the probability that the safety system will fail to operate as intended. The results suggest that evidence theory provides a potentially valuable representational tool for the display of the implications of significant epistemic uncertainty in inputs to complex analyses.     

Co‐Present Conversation as “Socialized Trance”: Talk,Involvement Obligations,and Smart‐Phone Disruption

In an era where digital and co‐present involvements become entangled, the role of face‐to‐face conversation now vies with mediated communication. Applying insights provided by Erving Goffman, we explore conversational interaction and consider how engrossing face‐to‐face conversation can be understood as a form of socialized trance. We explore how this interaction represents one type of “involvement obligation” that can become disrupted and, increasingly, uniquely impacted by mediated involvements that are enabled through mobile and “smart” devices. The crux of the argument is considered in the context of a burgeoning digital era where conversation is found to become meshed together in uneven ways with mediated interaction. We highlight the efficacy of Goffman's approach with regards to the current information environment, providing insights into how engrossing conversation and its involvement obligations are impacted by mediated interactions and how breaches of conduct are experienced. A video abstract is available at https://youtu.be/ulL8mMN4oig .     

Modeling Repeatable Events Using Discrete‐Time Data: Predicting Marital Dissolution

I join two methodologies by illustrating the application of multilevel modeling principles to hazard‐rate models with an emphasis on procedures for discrete‐time data that contain repeatable events. I demonstrate this application using data taken from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) to ascertain the relationship between multiple covariates and risk of subsequent marital dissolution. I consider both fixed‐ and random‐effects versions of the multilevel model, as well as a Generalized Estimating Equation alternative to estimating random effects. I compare results obtained from the various estimators, noting why differences occur, and recommend when to choose the various alternatives. I also provide a set of SAS and STATA programs that can be used to analyze the NSFG data.     

Individual Actual or Perceived Property Flood Risk: Did it Predict Evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina, 2003?

Individual perception of risk has consistently been considered an important determinant of hurricane evacuation in published studies and reviews. Adequate risk assessment is informed by environmental and social cues, as well as evacuation intentions and past disaster experience. This cross‐sectional study measured perceived flood risk of 570 residents of three coastal North Carolina counties, compared their perception with actual risk determined by updated flood plain maps, and determined if either was associated with evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Census blocks were stratified by flood zone and 30 census blocks were randomly selected from each flood zone. Seven interviews were conducted at random locations within selected blocks. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to produce crude and adjusted risk differences. Neither the designated flood zone of the parcel where the home was located nor the residents' perceived flood risk was associated with evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in the bivariate analysis. In the multivariable analysis, intention to evacuate and home type were important confounders of the association between actual risk and evacuation. The belief that one is at high risk of property damage or injury is important in evacuation decision making. However, in this study, while coastal residents' perceived risk of flooding was correlated with their actual flood risk, neither was associated with evacuation. These findings provide important opportunities for education and intervention by policymakers and authorities to improve hurricane evacuation rates and raise flood risk awareness.     

Triage and Ethics: Social Workers on the Front Line

ABSTRACT

This article highlights the results of an international qualitative study examining the impact of terrorism and other disasters—both human-made and natural—on social work agencies and their labor force. The study was conducted with focus groups of social workers in health care and social service settings. The major research question concerned the impact of disaster—both natural and human-made—on agencies and social work practitioners. Focus was placed on the ethical dissonance experienced by social workers under pressure to prioritize how services and resources are distributed to those in need.     

Estimating a covariance function having an un unknown scale kakameter

The structure of a family ρ of measures corresponding to a zero-mean Gaussian process with covariance αR(s,t) is discussed. When R itself is known (R and T completely arbitrary), it is shown that ρ is either homogeneous or composed of singular measures, depending on whether the reproducing kernel Hilbert space H(R,T) is finite- or infinite-dimensional. For the case dim H < ∞ the MLE α is given; when dim H = ∞ an almost sure discriminator is constructed. More generally, it is shown that when R itself depends upon a parameter θ (not necessarily a scalar) and certain broad assumptions are met, one may describe the orthogonal decomposition of P and estimate both a and θ.     

On the presidential campaign trail: Apologia of association

During the 2008 presidential primary campaign, the supporters of Senators Clinton, McCain, and Obama made a number of controversial public statements. After these remarks became public and a focus of media attention, the candidates and their surrogates/supporters engaged in what we term apologia of association. This study examines this previously unexplored apologetic form.     

The Marital Scales: Measurement of Intent,Attitudes, and Aspects Regarding Marital Relationships

Studies on marital relationships focus on intent to marry, global positive or negative attitudes toward marriage, and expectations for what married life will be like. There are currently no instruments capable of assessing all three of these areas. This study outlines the development and validation of the Marital Scales. One is designed to measure intent to marry (Intent to Marry Scale), another is for general attitudes toward marriage (General Attitudes Toward Marriage Scale), and the last scale measures expectations for marital relationships (Aspects of Marriage Scale). They are also designed to be applicable for any individual, regardless of marital status or sexual orientation. Results demonstrated excellent factor structure, and good internal reliability and construct validity for the instrument.     

Father's involvement in the lives of children in foster care

Limited understandings exist about non‐resident fathers' views of their involvement with their children in foster care placements. Guided by the ecological systems framework, the purpose of this exploratory study was to gain insights into fathers' perceptions of their involvement with a child in foster care. Data were collected from demographic questionnaires and two focus groups with 17 men. Fathers expressed how kinship compared with non‐kinship placements affected their involvement. Fathers were also in agreement that their financial hardships were a significant factor affecting their involvement. Several fathers also reported how they experienced discrimination in the child welfare system as men. Surprisingly, uncommon to findings from other studies, few men viewed the child's mother as being a barrier to their involvement. The findings provide insights into factors requiring attention to help non‐residential fathers become involved with their children.