Scenario Tree Modeling to Analyze the Probability of Classical Swine Fever Virus Introduction into Member States of the European Union

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.     

Bayesian Analysis of DNA Profiling Data in Forensic Identification Applications

The utilization of DNA evidence in cases of forensic identification has become widespread over the last few years. The strength of this evidence against an individual standing trial is typically presented in court in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) or its reciprocal (the profile match probability). The value of this LR will vary according to the nature of the genetic relationship between the accused and other possible perpetrators of the crime in the population. This paper develops ideas and methods for analysing data and evaluating LRs when the evidence is based on short tandem repeat profiles, with special emphasis placed on a Bayesian approach. These are then applied in the context of a particular quadruplex profiling system used for routine case-work by the UK Forensic Science Service.     

An R2criterion based on optimal predictors

The predictor that minimizes mean-squared prediction error is used to derive a goodness-of-fit measure that offers an asymptotically valid model selection criterion for a wide variety of regression models. In particular, a new goodness-of-fit criterion (cr²) is proposed for censored or otherwise limited dependent variables. The new goodness-of-fit measure is then applied to the analysis of duration.     

The interaction of depersonalization and deindividuation

Abnormal experiences of the self defined here in terms ofdepersonalization may predispose individuals to aggressive behavior in situations that further alter their self-awareness. Conditions that raise self-awareness may inhibit the aggressive behavior of individuals prone to these abnormal experiences of self. In the current research, individuals prone to a distorted body image were least likely to express attitudes reflecting verbal hostility when their self-awareness was raised. Individuals prone to a sense of unreality about others were most likely to express attitudes that reflect physical aggression when their sense of social identity was raised. However, these attitudes were less likely in individuals prone to self-criticism whose social identity was enhanced. The results suggest that a multidimensional construct of depersonalization may aid in the prediction of aggressive behavior that is facilitated by situations that alter the individual’s sense of self.     

An Analysis of Autism as a Contingency-Shaped Disorder of Verbal Behavior

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior - This paper analyzes autism as a contingency-shaped disorder of verbal behavior. Contingencies of reinforcement in effect during the first to third year of a...     

Positioning terrorism in management and marketing: Research propositions

Terrorism poses both direct and indirect threats to the operations of the firm. It represents a market imperfection that increases transaction costs and creates barriers to the free flow of goods, affecting potential gains that would occur in the presence of unhindered exchange. Terrorism reflects the risk or actual encounter of violent acts, whose goal is to engender fear, coercion, or intimidation. We investigate terrorism and its association with marketing strategy and operations. Key concepts on terrorism are reviewed and a collection of propositions is offered. We highlight the pivotal roles of sourcing, production, distribution, pricing, communications, and general business strategy as functions influenced by, or capable of influencing, terrorism. Lastly, we offer managerial implications, as well as directions and guidelines for future research.     

Self-perception of aging and health among older adults in Korea

The way that each individual perceives his or her own aging and health may be a key indicator of adaptation and well-being in old age. This study explored the determinants of self-perception of aging and health using 291 community-dwelling older adults in Korea (mean AGE=69.9). Older individuals with lower levels of education and economic status and various types of health problems (more chronic conditions, greater disability, poorer vision, and greater numbers of sick days) were found to have more negative self-perception of aging and health. In addition, a significant role of psychological factors was observed. For self-perception of health, sense of mastery was found to be a significant factor, and for self-perception of aging, neuroticism was observed to be significant along with sense of mastery. The mediating role of self-perception of health was supported that positive perception of health intervened the adverse effects of health problems on self-perception of aging. The findings demonstrate the important roles of psychological resources and subjective perceptions and suggest a need to consider them when planning interventions.     

Is Autism a Preventable Disorder of Verbal Behavior? A Response to Five Commentaries

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior - This paper presents a response to five commentaries on our article An Analysis of Autism as a Contingency-Shaped Disorder of Verbal Behavior (Drash &...     

Using the Image Exchange to Enhance Interdisciplinary Team Building in Child Welfare

A team building activity, the image exchange, was helpful to interdisciplinary teams in clarifying perceptions and opinions of participants about the roles of each discipline (child welfare, domestic violence, mental health, and substance abuse workers) at a five-day interdisciplinary training workshop. Discussion of team members’ perceptions and views provided opportunities to develop insights about misperceptions. Training in team development and role clarification provided a foundation for the development of effective interdisciplinary collaboration, which may improve interdisciplinary practice.Dr. Packard is an Associate Professor and Dr. Jones is a Professor in the School of Social Work at SDSU. At the time of writing, Ms. Nahrstedt was a Research Assistant in the School of Social Work at SDSU. This project was funded by a grant from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children, Youth, and Families.     

Why does the new labor movement look so much like the old one? Putting the 1990s revitalization project in historical context

In the 1990s the labor movement underwent a major transformation in an attempt to confront the challenges facing organized labor, most notably a precipitous membership decline— in the private sector, membership is currently at a post-Great Depression low. Despite the enthusiastic response among unionists and scholars alike to this revitalization project, as Zald and Berger (1978) note, change within formal organizations is often a contentious process, as competing interests struggle for control. The current labor movement is no exception: Significant conflict surrounds the issue of new organizing activities. While this period is certainly interesting for the level of open debate occurring over the future of the movement, it is not unique as a time of heightened tensions among unionists. Herein I describe debates, both historical and present, over organizing goals and tactics. In order to draw parallels between the past and present, I offer a theoretical account of why organizing is such a controversial topic. Initial support for these explanations, drawn from quotes from unionists and observers of the movement alike, indicates that the current turmoil in the labor movement is similar to that which occurred in other important periods and that the consequences of the decisions made today regarding organizing can have significant ramifications for the movement’s future.