A quantitative study of the determinants of fertility behavior

Recent literature shows great interest in the quantitative study of the determinants of fertility. In a similar way, this study takes an across-country approach to specify independent variables, to separate economic from social and political variables, to make distinct comparisons of fertility responses in developed and underdeveloped countries, and to examine a wide range of hypotheses. The key is empirical analysis by separate regressions. This permits direct comparisons of countries at different levels of development, increases the probability of obtaining statistically significant regression coefficients, and standardizes the analysis for factors which vary with level of development.In this way, the authors determine positive and statistically significant relations between fertility and illiteracy, child mortality, proportion of agricultural population, proportion of nonfarm selfemployment, and overcrowded housing and show a negative significant relationship between fertility and communism. The study does not establish statistically significant relations, however, for population density, social mobility, substitutes for sexual intercourse, achievement motivation, protein in the diet, and religion.In general, the signs of the regression coefficients for the separate levels of development are the same as those for all countries combined. Any failure to attain statistical significance may be explained by small sample size and insufficient variation in the variables for separate levels of development.     

A Hybrid Model for Research on Subjective Well-being: Examining Common- and Component-specific Sources of Variance in Life Satisfaction,Positive Affect,and Negative Affect

The primary components of subjective well-being (SWB) include life satisfaction (LS), positive affect (PA), and negative affect (NA). There is little consensus, however, concerning how these components form a model of SWB. In this paper, six longitudinal studies varying in demographic characteristics, length of time between assessment periods, number of assessment periods, and type of measures employed were used to test a hybrid model of SWB comprising both common and component-specific sources of variance. The majority of explained variance in LS was attributable to temporally consistent common variance, rather than component-specific sources. For PA and NA, both common and component-specific sources were substantive and consistent over time. Implications for the conceptualization and operationalizations of SWB are discussed.     

Young people's and carers' perspectives on the mental health needs of looked-after adolescents

While the mental health needs of looked‐after young people have been described in a number of clinical studies, the views of looked‐after adolescents themselves concerning their mental health needs have only rarely been reported. This study used focus groups to elicit the ideas and experiences of looked‐after young people in two local authorities in England. Front‐line carers in the region were also surveyed. Young people and carers were agreed in highlighting the damaging effects of the discontinuity and change experienced in the looked‐after system. Young people emphasized the importance of exercising choice and control when seeking and receiving support and identified the value of positive role models provided by ‘survivors’ of the care system. Carers reported high levels of risk behaviour, particularly self‐harm, among young people in children's homes. These differing perspectives need to be openly acknowledged and negotiated within care settings in order that relevant and accessible therapeutic and support services can be offered to looked‐after adolescents.     

Unlikely hikers? Activism,Instagram, and the queer mobilities of fat hikers,women hiking alone,and hikers of colour

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates a nascent, primarily online community of so-called ‘unlikely hikers’, united in the premise that hiking is good for everyone’s mental and physical health and that diversity can and should extend to outdoor spaces including national parks. However, the ways in which hikers have hitherto been represented in outdoors media, advertising, and wider social imaginaries present potent barriers to participation. The paper traces the discursive origins and positioned ideologies of ‘the outdoors’ in former British settler colonies, particularly the USA, showing how national parks maintain legacies of frontier colonialism and default understandings of legitimate outdoorspeople as necessarily White, able-bodied, straight, and male. These legacies are then traced through four years of online ethnographic data (2015–2018), comprising multimedia narratives of fat hikers, solo women hikers including lesbian women, and hikers of colour as they relate their outdoor experiences on Instagram and related podcasts, blogs, and magazine articles. The discussion is theorized using Holman Jones and Harris’s notion of queering and Urry’s mobilities paradigm, and ‘queer mobilities’ is proposed as part of an activism and amplification aimed at queering the trail both within and beyond academic spaces.     

The GMDH Algorithm of Ivakhnenko

In 1966, the Russian cyberneticist, A.G. Ivakhnenko, introduced a technique for constructing an extremely high-order regression-type polynomial. The algorithm, the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH), builds a multinomial of degree in the hundreds, whereas standard multiple regression becomes bogged down in computation and linear dependence. The GMDH method is ideal for complex, unstructured systems where the investigator is only interested in obtaining a high-order input-output relationship. Also, the Ivakhnenko algorithm is heuristic in nature and is not based on a solid foundation as is regression analysis.     

Partitioning a distribution

Suppose it is desired to partition a distribution into k groups (classes) using squared error or absolute error as the mea¬sure of information retained. An algorithm to obtain the optimal boundaries (or class probabilities) is giTen. For the case of squared error optimal class probabilities were obtained for k = 2 to 15 for beta (for various values of the parameters), chi-square (12 d.f.) exponential, normals and uniform distributions. Results obtained are compared and analysed in light of existing papers, Special attention is given to the case k =5, corresponding to the assignment of the letter grades A, B, C, D9 P in courses, and to the case k = 9 corresponding to stanines.     

Investing in the relationship: practitioners’ relationships with looked‐after children and care leavers in Social Work Practices

Providing more consistent and continuous relationships for looked‐after children and care leavers is a current preoccupation in social work in light of many criticisms of the quality of such relationships. Recommendations for more direct work have spurred new models of service delivery in children's services aimed at improving individual outcomes. Independent Social Work Practices (SWPs), a new organizational model piloted in some areas of England between 2009 and 2012, were established to enable social workers and other practitioners to spend more time in direct work and thus to improve the practitioner/child/young person relationship. This paper uses findings from interviews with 169 children and young people across 11 local authorities and 5 SWPs, undertaken as part of a 3‐year national matched control evaluation of pilot SWPs, to identify key elements of good quality practitioner relationships with children or young people. Focusing on children's and young people's perspectives and experiences, the study demonstrates that more direct work and consistent relationships are valued. The paper deploys Recognition Theory to further understanding of effective practice as defined by children and young people.     

Teaching Regressions an Exploratory Approach

An applied statistics and data-analysis course designed for students of public management and policy analysis, but suitable as an introductory graduate-level applied course in other contexts, is discussed. The course, Quantitative Methods for Public Management (QMPM), is a departure from traditional instruction in statistics. It uses subject-matter hierarchies to schedule the presentation of substantive material, and it integrates exploratory data analysis (EDA) and standard classical techniques. This integration is accomplished by using exploratory methods to clarify and evaluate analyses performed with classical procedures. The course, taught since 1975 at Carnegie-Mellon University's School of Urban and Public Affairs, has been evaluated experimentally through a randomized assignment of students to either a traditional introductory statistics course or QMPM. We concentrate here on the QMPM approach to teaching regression.     

A Dynamic Collaboration Capability as a Source of Competitive Advantage

The resource‐based view of the firm argues the essence of decision making is to determine how firm and supply chain resources can be configured to achieve inimitable advantage and superior performance. However, combining resources found among diverse members of a supply chain requires higher levels of coordination than exist at most companies. Manifest cross‐functional and interorganizational conflict impedes the relational advantages of collaboration. This research employs a multimethod—survey and interview—approach to evaluate collaboration's influence on operational and firm performance. Our findings show that collaboration, as a dynamic capability, mediates the conflict resulting from functional orientations, and improves performance. Specific structural enablers to enhance an organization's collaborative capability are identified and described, providing insight into how firms can exploit interfirm resources for competitive advantage.     

Nonresponse Bias in a Dual Frame Sample of Cell and Landline Numbers

We conducted a dual frame survey of landline and cell phonenumbers in 2004 to evaluate the feasibility of including cellphone numbers in random digit dial telephone surveys in theUnited States. By sampling cell phone numbers, the coveragebias associated with households that have only cell phones iseliminated. However, we discovered two major sources of nonresponsebias in the dual frame sample. In an attempt to reduce thesebiases, we applied several different estimation schemes. Buta comparison to the 2004 Current Population Survey Cell PhoneSupplement showed that none of the estimation schemes substantiallyreduced the nonresponse bias of the estimates. We suggest othermethods that might be used in future surveys that include cellphones and discuss the need for additional data collection andresearch on this issue.