Demography of disaster: Population estimates after hurricane Andrew

Hurricane Andrew blasted through the southern tip of Florida in August 1992, damaging or destroying tens of thousands of homes and forcing hundreds of thousands of persons to move at least temporarily to different places of residence. The hurricane not only disrupted the lives of many Floridians, but destroyed the statistical basis for producing local population estimates in South Florida as well. These estimates are used for many types of decision-making, from the distribution of state revenue-sharing dollars to choosing sites for fast-food restaurants. This article describes the estimation problems created by the hurricane and how those problems were resolved through the use of existing data sources and the collection of new types of data. It closes with a discussion of several conceptual, methodological and procedural issues that will have to be faced in virtually any attempt to estimate the demographic consequences of natural disasters.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1994 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Miami, Florida, USA.     

Tree-structured subgroup analysis for censored survival data: Validation of computationally inexpensive model selection criteria

The performance of computationally inexpensive model selection criteria in the context of tree-structured subgroup analysis is investigated. It is shown through simulation that no single model selection criterion exhibits a uniformly superior performance over a wide range of scenarios. Therefore, a two-stage approach for model selection is proposed and shown to perform satisfactorily. Applied example of subgroup analysis is presented. Problems associated with tree-structured subgroup analysis are discussed and practical solutions are suggested.     

Projection and Misperception in Couples Treatment

Projective identification is discussed as an interpersonal mechanism involved in distortions of perceptions and communications. Several case illustrations are presented to show how this mechanism manifests itself in relatively healthy, though neurotic, couples. A treatment approach based on correction of the perceptual distortions is suggested as a model for short-term counseling with such couples.     

What might Normalisation Process Theory bring to policy implementation studies? Learning lessons and uncovering questions through a case study of the profound implementation failure of a new policing policy

Normalisation Process Theory (NPT), used nationally and internationally to explore implementation within health services research, is used for the first time within policing to understand profound policy implementation failure and to generate broader discussion of policy implementation theory. The policy in question (Police to Primary Care [P2PC]) was an intervention designed to notify GPs when women are assessed by police as at high risk of future domestic abuse. Designed to improve interagency communication, it took place amidst radical organisational change. Using qualitative interviews with domestic abuse specialist and frontline officers, this paper addresses how NPT helps to explain the (non)implementation of P2PC, how such an analysis differs from other policy implementation approaches, and what this means for our understandings of policy implementation more broadly. NPT proved useful in understanding mechanisms leading to (non)implementation of the intervention: fuzzy alignment with existing practice, faulty communication of purpose, and inattention to discretionary implementation spaces. It helped us understand why the intervention came to be invisible. Dwarfed by its organisational context, made institutionally hard to read by a lack of formal protocols, and given restricted view to police officers, it was compromised by a failure to instigate systems of organisational learning. More broadly, NPT helped reveal practices intersecting top‐down and bottom‐up implementation theory. The paper concludes by asking how NPT and theories of street‐level bureaucracy might be better used in tandem and, particularly, how this might help explorations of policy implementation where human actors are joined by technological actors in interpreting and making policy in vivo.     

Employee Work Attitudes: The Subtle Influence of Gender

Using the construct of job satisfaction, this study examined work attitudes of 286 females and 416 males employed in 27 female-owned and 29 male-owned small businesses in three industries: construction, manufacturing, and distribution. Job satisfaction scores (dependent variables) were analyzed with regard to the interaction of owner employee gender. Demographic and job-related variables were also considered. The gender-moderated results are discussed in terms of methodological implications for conducting research regarding work attitudes.     

Principles for Conduct of Pest Risk Analyses: Report of an Expert Workshop

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have focused attention on risk assessment of potential insect, weed, and animal pests and diseases of livestock. These risks have traditionally been addressed through quarantine protocols ranging from limits on the geographical areas from which a product may originate, postharvest disinfestation procedures like fumigation, and inspections at points of export and import, to outright bans. To ensure that plant and animal protection measures are not used as nontariff trade barriers, GATT and NAFTA require pest risk analysis (PRA) to support quarantine decisions. The increased emphasis on PRA has spurred multiple efforts at the national and international level to design frameworks for the conduct of these analyses. As approaches to pest risk analysis proliferate, and the importance of the analyses grows, concerns have arisen about the scientific and technical conduct of pest risk analysis. In January of 1997, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) held an invitation-only workshop in Washington, D.C. to bring experts in risk analysis and pest characterization together to develop general principles for pest risk analysis. Workshop participants examined current frameworks for PRA, discussed strengths and weaknesses of the approaches, and formulated principles, based on years of experience with risk analysis in other setting and knowledge of the issues specific to analysis of pests. The principles developed highlight the both the similarities of pest risk analysis to other forms of risk analysis, and its unique attributes.     

Peace and Conflict Resolution Organizations in Three Protracted Conflicts: Structures,Resources and Ideology

Guided by organizational and social movement theories, this study compares the structures, resource bases, ideologies, and strategies of nongovernmental organizations engaged in peace and conflict resolution (P/CROs) in three regions with extended violent conflicts: Northern Ireland, South Africa, and Israel/Palestine. Qualitative content analysis techniques are used to analyze 27 detailed case reports. We analyze the funding patterns and structural attributes of the P/CROs in our sample, with particular attention to how they obtain fiscal resources and membership in spite of the risks they may experience. We then explore the degree of formalization among P/CROs over time and, finally, we examine the ideological frames that P/CROs use and how these frames relate to their tactics. Throughout the analysis we pay attention to how the political context of each region influences P/CRO behavior.     

Failures in Child Protection: A Case Study

A case example is used to illustrate how powerful a child abuser may become; where a complex hostage-type relationship develops between family members and is then extended to include the child protection worker. One consequence of this is the increased risk of re-abuse of the children. To establish this relationship the abuser uses a number of techniques such as violence, intimidation, isolation and unpredictability. In the case presented, the three children were subjected to ongoing severe abuse, although the child protection agency had known the family for 10 years. The children often denied and hid the abuse, and the child protection workers were left largely unsupported by other professionals and often appeared to comply with the wishes of the abusing parents. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

加强改革顶层设计关键问题研究

改革顶层设计不仅是一个政治新词汇,而且具有促进思想进一步解放的重要作用。改革顶层设计既不同于战略谋划与确定,也不同于战术制定与实施,它是介于二者之间而又联系二者的关键环节。对于加强改革顶层设计这一课题应结合改革历史进程进行深入研究,从而进一步明确加强改革顶层设计需要重视和把握的重点和难点问题,即突出导向性、体现规律性、强化统筹性、明确主体性、具有操作性、重视动力性。     

论民族旅游场域中的跨文化交流与认知——以云南元阳箐口哈尼族村为例

对元阳县箐口村哈尼族在民族旅游场域中的中外跨文化交流与认知情况的实地调查分析表明,在民族旅游的场域中,外国游客与东道主之间存在一定形式的交流互动,但是对双方认知获得和交流影响有所区别。基本来讲,这种旅游场域中的跨文化交流对东道主的影响要大于对外国游客的影响,但交流对双方的认知都有积极的意义。