Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation: Further Evidence

The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. In an earlier paper we argued that the method itself cannot be properly characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In that paper we presented several new techniques for estimating the number of households and average number of persons per household (PPH). However, the testing of these new techniques was limited by the lack of census results against which the estimates could be compared. Complete census data on population, households, and PPH are now available and can be used to test alternate estimation techniques. In this paper we replicate the tests reported in our earlier paper using 1980 census data for Florida’s 67 counties. These tests provide further evidence that the new techniques produce more precise, less biased estimates than previously used techniques.     

A Model for Inferring the Voluntary and involuntary causes of residential segregation

It is clear that both voluntary and involuntary forces normally contribute to the residential segregation existing between groups. For the most part, the contribution of each dimension has not been determined. Rather, researchers operate as if either one or the other force is operating. In the United States, for example, black-white segregation is assumed to be imposed by whites on blacks, as if the latter were themselves totally indifferent to the racial composition in their areas of residence. On the other hand, it is assumed that segregation between white ethnic groups is at present purely a voluntary matter. In an earlier period, it was assumed that their segregation was both voluntary (reflecting desires to be among compatriots) and involuntary (reflecting the imposition of restrictions on residential movement by other groups as well as economic forces). But it has not been possible for investigators to determine the relative importance of each factor. Using asymmetrical segregation indexes, a rudimentary procedure is proposed for determining the relative importance of voluntary and involuntary forces operating to generate a given level of segregation. Data based on Black, Anglo, and Spanish residential patterns are then considered in terms of the proposed model.     

On the limits of generalizability: applying resource exchange theory to gay relationship processes

In the present studies, we examined patterns of interpersonal resource exchange (E. B. Foa & U. G. Foa, 1980; U. G. Foa & E. B. Foa, 1974) among gay male and female couples. Study 1 was quantitative in nature, whereas Study 2 was qualitative in nature. In Study 1 (n's = 61 male couples and 54 female couples), we explicitly tested the hypotheses that partners in same-sex romantic relationships would exchange affection and respect positively and significantly; results indicated that affection (but not respect) was exchanged or reciprocated positively and significantly among gay male (but not gay female) pairs. In Study 2 (n's = 15 male couples and 15 female couples), we asked the research question, but did not test any formal hypotheses, as to whether same-sex romantic pairs would spontaneously invoke interpersonal resource exchange and other reinforcement processes when describing their relationships; results indicated that gay female (but not gay male) couples appeared to adopt a communal, rather than exchange, orientation toward their relationships with regard to displays of affection. Implications for the study of relationship processes among same-sex romantic pairs are discussed.     

Culture and Openness

Previous literature on openness has mainly dealt with the consequences of openness. In this paper, however, we are interested in the cultural determinants of openness. Conducting a cross-country analysis incorporating 53 countries over the period 1959–1997, we find that several aspects of national culture have an impact on openness. Specifically, we find positive effects of individualism and negative effects of uncertainty avoidance and power distance on openness. These findings point to the importance of taking cultural influences into account in future research on openness. Interestingly, the cultural effects were found to become stronger over time and to smoothen out in the end of the study period. This result is in line with the idea that the effect of culture may be expressed most clearly in situations where freedom of choice for policy makers is greatest. When this freedom is restricted, because of scarcity reasons or because there is a dominant view on best practice, the possibility of cultural preferences to influence policy decisions seems to be smaller.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Population Forecast Errors

Many studies have found that population forecast errors generally increase with the length of the forecast horizon, but none have examined this relationship in detail. Do errors grow linearly, exponentially, or in some other manner as the forecast horizon becomes longer? Does the error-horizon relationship differ by forecasting technique, launch year, size of place, or rate of growth? Do alternative measures of error make a difference? In this article we address these questions using two simple forecasting techniques and population data from 1900 to 1980 for states in the United States. We find that in most instances there is a linear or nearly linear relationship between forecast accuracy and the length of the forecast horizon, but no consistent relationship between bias and the length of the horizon. We believe that these results provide useful information regarding the nature of population forecast errors.     

The use of nativity data to estimate ethnic characteristics and patterns

Until recently, nativity data for the first and second generations (the foreign stock) have been the primary source of census information on white ethnic groups in the United States. With the development of an ancestry item, it is now possible to deal with all generations regardless of birthplace. The 1979 Current Population Survey provides a rare opportunity to cross-tabulate the results obtained from each system in order to determine the degree of overlap in the populations and the extent to which inferences about the social characteristics of ethnic groups are altered. The degree of overlap varies enormously among groups, but the results show that inferences based on nativity data are fairly close to those that would be obtained with the use of the ethnic ancestry item. This is an encouraging result for researchers obliged to use nativity data in working with earlier censuses.     

Racial Quotas and the Culture War in Brazilian Academia

Dozens of Brazilian universities recently adopted racial quotas for negros, read Afro-Brazilians, in higher education. Anyone familiar with the Brazilian context will recognize this step as a paradigm shift in the state’s approach to ‘race’. State discourse in past decades touted a mixed-race population not beset by overt discriminatory practices. In response to this new approach, two well-defined clusters of professors in Brazil’s universities authored several dueling manifestos supporting and opposing race-based affirmative action. This article suggests a ‘culture war’ framing of the debate and delineates the contrasting historic ideologies of racialism and antiracialism that inform the divergent racial worldviews of each academic camp. It then explores four points of contention from the manifestos that characterize their conflicting perspectives. They differ in terms of (1) their images of the Brazilian nation, (2) their diagnoses of the mechanisms behind non-white underrepresentation in Brazilian universities, (3) their prognoses for a remedy via racial quotas, and (4) their motivations for entering the debate. At the same time, the article locates some possible common ground.