Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties: Assessing Accuracy and the Impact of Adjustments

Projections of total population have been evaluated extensively, but few studies have investigated the performance of projections by age. Of those that did, most focused on projections for countries or other large areas. In this article, we evaluate projections by age for Florida and its counties, as produced and published between 1996 and 2010 by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. We first compare the precision and bias of projections of total population with the precision and bias of projections by age, at both the state and county levels. This is followed by a more detailed examination of county-level projection errors for individual age groups, first in the aggregate and then disaggregated by sex and population size. The second part of the analysis focuses on a number of adjustments that were implemented in projections published in 2006 and 2009. Intended to improve accuracy, these adjustments involved updates to the base population, fertility rates, and survival rates. We compare the accuracy of projections incorporating these adjustments with the accuracy of projections excluding them. We believe this study offers a unique opportunity to examine a variety of characteristics regarding the forecast accuracy of small-area population projections by age.     

Peer Group Affiliation of Children: The Role of Perceived Popularity,Likeability, and Behavioral Similarity in Bullying

To understand children's peer group affiliation, this study examined to what extent children in naturally occurring groups resemble each other on bullying, likeability, and perceived popularity. Participants were fourth‐ to sixth‐grade pupils (N = 461). Peer groups were identified using the social cognitive map procedure. Resemblance on bullying, likeability, and perceived popularity was evaluated by means of variance components models. Resemblance in peer groups was strongest for perceived popularity, followed by bullying and likeability. Moreover, resemblance on bullying could for a large part be attributed to the high‐perceived popularity of the group, and to a lesser extent, to the low likeability of the group. It is concluded that children showing bullying seem to affiliate with each other most of all to attain or maintain their position in a perceived popular peer group. Results stress the importance of considering the functionality of bullying from a group perspective.     

Fishing in Urban New Jersey: Ethnicity Affects Information Sources,Perception, and Compliance

Recreational and subsistence angling are important aspects of urban culture for much of North America where people are concentrated near the coasts or major rivers. Yet there are fish and shellfish advisories for many estuaries, rivers, and lakes, and these are not always heeded. This paper examines fishing behavior, sources of information, perceptions, and compliance with fishing advisories as a function of ethnicity for people fishing in the Newark Bay Complex of the New York–New Jersey Harbor. We test the null hypothesis that there were no ethnic differences in sources of information, perceptions of the safety of fish consumption, and compliance with advisories. There were ethnic differences in consumption rates, sources of information about fishing, knowledge about the safety of the fish, awareness of fishing advisories or of the correct advisories, and knowledge about risks for increased cancer and to unborn and young children. In general, the knowledge base was much lower for Hispanics, was intermediate for blacks, and was greatest for whites. When presented with a statement about the potential risks from eating fish, there were no differences in their willingness to stop eating fish or to encourage pregnant women to stop. These results indicate a willingness to comply with advisories regardless of ethnicity, but a vast difference in the base knowledge necessary to make informed risk decisions about the safety of fish and shellfish. Although the overall median income level of the population was in the $25,000–34,999 income category, for Hispanics it was on the border between $15,000–24,999 and $25,000–34,999.     

Explicaciones No Psicologicas Del Comportamiento

Resumen

Se propone un acercamiento socio-construccionista para el estudio de las subjetividades de género sexual frente al tratamiento cognitivista y sociocognitivista, dominantes en Psicología Social, en la investigación sobre identidad sexual, estereotipos y categorías de género. Asimismo se parte de ciertos planteamientos provenientes de la epistemología feminista postmoderna que ponen un énfasis especial en el análisis del lenguaje como instrumento mediatizador, regulador y modelador de la subjetividad y el género desde una perspectiva de las relaciones de poder y su regulación de subjetividades. Desde este triple marco el objetivo es analizar si la subjetividad de género femenino, supuestamente heredada y compartida según la mayoría de estudios de estereotipos, modela las identificaciones de las propias mujeres o si éstas desarrollan formas de resistencia hacia ella. Por todo ello la metodología de Análisis del Discurso aparece como la estrategia de investigación más adecuada. Los resultados del Análisis del Discurso de las narraciones de las mujeres sobre ellas mismas pone de manifiesto distintas subjetividades con diferentes niveles de agencia en relación a la reproducción o transformación de la escisión de género femenino.     

The occurrence of fingerprint characteristics as a two-dimensional poisson process

The individuality of n fingerprint is based on the configuration of occurences of the ten Galton characteristics ( ridge endings, forks, etc. ). A model ( Osterburg, Parthasarthy, Raghavan, Sclove, 1977 ) for the occurence of these characteristics, in terms of a grid of cells, is further developed. The occurence of the characteristics is modelled as a two-dimensional multivariate Poisson process. This approach allows one to treat multiple occurrences in a more satisfying way than in Osterburg, Parthasarathy, Raghavan and Sclove ( 1977 ) or Sclove ( 1978 )