An Approach to Vulnerability Analysis of Complex Industrial Systems

The concept of vulnerability of complex industrial systems is defined and discussed in relation to risk and system survivability. The discussion is illustrated by referring to a number of previous industrial accidents. The various risk factors, or threats, influencing an industrial system's vulnerability are classified and discussed. Both internal and external threats are covered. The general scope of vulnerability analysis is compared to traditional risk analysis approaches and main differences are illustrated. A general procedure for vulnerability analysis in two steps, including building of scenarios and preparation of relevant worksheets, is described and discussed.     

AbSRiM: An Agent‐Based Security Risk Management Approach for Airport Operations

Security risk management is essential for ensuring effective airport operations. This article introduces AbSRiM, a novel agent‐based modeling and simulation approach to perform security risk management for airport operations that uses formal sociotechnical models that include temporal and spatial aspects. The approach contains four main steps: scope selection, agent‐based model definition, risk assessment, and risk mitigation. The approach is based on traditional security risk management methodologies, but uses agent‐based modeling and Monte Carlo simulation at its core. Agent‐based modeling is used to model threat scenarios, and Monte Carlo simulations are then performed with this model to estimate security risks. The use of the AbSRiM approach is demonstrated with an illustrative case study. This case study includes a threat scenario in which an adversary attacks an airport terminal with an improvised explosive device. The approach provides a promising way to include important elements, such as human aspects and spatiotemporal aspects, in the assessment of risk. More research is still needed to better identify the strengths and weaknesses of the AbSRiM approach in different case studies, but results demonstrate the feasibility of the approach and its potential.     

Axiomatic characterizations of solutions for Bayesian games

Bayesian equilibria are characterized by means of consistency and one-person rationality in combination with non-emptiness or converse consistency. Moreover, strong and coalition-proof Bayesian equilibria of extended Bayesian games are introduced and it is seen that these notions can be characterized by means of consistency, one-person rationality, a version of Pareto optimality and a modification of converse consistency. It is shown that, in case of the strong Bayesian equilibrium correspondence, converse consistency can be replaced by non-emptiness. As examples we treat Bayesian potential games and Bayesian congestion games.     

Towards the desired future of the elderly and ICT: policy recommendations based on a dialogue with senior citizens

This study dealt with the interaction between two important trends in future Western societies, i.e. the greying of society and the technology-induced transformation of everyday life. It aimed at formulating a framework of policy recommendations with regard to the elderly and ICT in 2030. To meet this objective a three-phased methodology was developed, relying on methods of participatory technology assessment and technology foresighting. In the first phase of the project, a literature study, semi-structured expert discussions and focus groups with (future) elderly provided the necessary information for the development of scenarios about the future. In the second phase, these scenarios were transformed into a theatre play, which was performed for elderly audiences. Group discussions with senior participants led to the formulation of the “desired” future with regard to the elderly and ICT. During the last phase of the project—a backcasting exercise—experts and stakeholders from different fields formulated policy recommendations, necessary to achieve this future.     

Multiple Imputation of Predictor Variables Using Generalized Additive Models

The sensitivity of multiple imputation methods to deviations from their distributional assumptions is investigated using simulations, where the parameters of scientific interest are the coefficients of a linear regression model, and values in predictor variables are missing at random. The performance of a newly proposed imputation method based on generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) is investigated. Although imputation methods based on predictive mean matching are virtually unbiased, they suffer from mild to moderate under-coverage, even in the experiment where all variables are jointly normal distributed. The GAMLSS method features better coverage than currently available methods.     

Almost sure convergence of vertex degree densities in the vertex splitting model

We study the limiting degree distribution of the vertex splitting model introduced in Ref.^[3 David, F.; Dukes, M.; Jonsson, T.; Stefansson, S.Ö. Random tree growth by vertex splitting. J. Statist. Mech. Theory Exp. 2009, 04. doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2009/04/P04009. [Google Scholar]^]. This is a model of randomly growing ordered trees, where in each time step the tree is separated into two components by splitting a vertex into two, and then inserting an edge between the two new vertices. Under some assumptions on the parameters, related to the growth of the maximal degree of the tree, we prove that the vertex degree densities converge almost surely to constants which satisfy a system of equations. Using this, we are also able to strengthen and prove some previously non-rigorous results mentioned in the literature.     

The management of professional roles during boundary work in child welfare

Hall C, Slembrouck S, Haigh E, Lee A. The management of professional roles during boundary work in child welfare Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 348–357 © 2010 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and International Journal of Social Welfare. This article examines the ways in which child welfare professionals negotiate their roles and those of other professionals in home visits with clients, in this case the parents of young children. The concept of boundary work is developed within the context of the professional–client encounter. Drawing on Goffman's concept of ‘footing’, the analysis examines how professionals attend to ways of constructing family problems in terms of appropriate professional interventions – both from themselves and others. It is argued that the careful consideration of how problems merit interventions displays an adherence to the development of the supportive relations which move beyond strict professional remits. The article adds to the research evidence, which sees inter‐professional coordination as a complex matter, located in everyday practice rather than as advocating more tightly monitored procedure.     

Risk aversion in n-person bargaining

Relations between risk properties of Pareto optimal n-person bargaining solutions are studied. The (weak) worse alternative property, risk sensitivity property, and risk profit opportunity property are considered, in particular relations between these properties, and between these properties and other properties such as independence of irrelevant alternatives and individual monotonicity. A distinction is made between bargaining games where all Pareto optimal outcomes are riskless, and bargaining games where Pareto optimal outcomes may represent the utilities of lotteries between riskless alternatives. In the first mentioned case, more general results can be obtained.     

Life histories as counter-narratives against dominant and negative stereotypes about people with intellectual disabilities

The history of intellectual disabilities is largely a story of discrimination and social exclusion portraying people with intellectual disability as abnormal and inferior. This article describes a particular methodological approach to inclusive life history research with a small group of women with intellectual disabilities in Iceland. The article documents how, through a four-year collaborative research process, the life histories became counter-narratives to dominant historical beliefs and stereotypes. In addition to the personal empowerment of the women and the construction of a collective memory, this project has also resulted in public sharing of their stories through speaking up and giving presentations, and thus potentially also changing the historical memory.