A School Feeding Supply Chain Framework: Critical Factors for Sustainable Program Design

School feeding is an established development aid intervention with multiple objectives including education, nutrition, and value transfer. Traditionally run by international organizations in low‐income settings, school feeding programs have had a substantial impact in many less‐developed countries. However, recent rethinking by the World Bank and the World Food Programme has prompted a shift toward long‐term, sustainable solutions that rely more upon local resources, local capacity, and community participation. Supply chain management, which is critical to program delivery, is vital to developing a sustainable approach to school feeding. We propose a theoretical framework that identifies the internal and external factors that shape the supply chain and connects them to the objectives and performance measures of sustainable programs. Drawing upon supply chain management theory, current school feeding practices, and expert feedback, this article contributes to development aid logistics and program transitioning with a focus on sustainable program design. It aims to provide a comprehensive introduction to school feeding and relevant supply chain issues, a framework to identify sustainability problems in school feeding supply chains, and a starting point for further research on program design.     

LIVE AID REVISITED: LONG‐TERM IMPACTS OF THE 1984 ETHIOPIAN FAMINE ON CHILDREN

In 1984, the world was shocked at the scale of a famine in Ethiopia that caused over half a million deaths, making it one of the worst in recent history. The mortality impacts are clearly significant. But what of the survivors? This paper provides the first estimates of the long‐term impact of the famine 20 years later, on the height of young adults aged 19–22 years who experienced this severe shock as infants during the crisis. An innovative feature of the analysis is that famine intensity is measured at the household level, while impacts are assessed using a difference‐in‐differences comparison across siblings, and compared with an IV cross‐section, using rainfall as an instrument for the shock. We find that by adulthood, affected children who were aged of 12‐36 months at the peak of the crisis are significantly shorter than the older cohort, and their unaffected peers, by at least 5 cm. There are no significant effects on those in utero during the crisis, although we cannot rule out that for this cohort, the selection effect dominates scarring. Indicative calculations show that for the affected group such height loss may lead to income losses of around 5% per year over their lifetime. The evidence also suggests that the relief operations at the time made little difference to those who survived.     

On the Preference to Avoid Ex Post Inventory Errors

The value of demand information underlies many supply chain strategies that aim at better matching supply and demand. This study reports on the results of a laboratory experiment designed to estimate the behavioral value of demand information. Relative to the commonly assumed benchmark of a rational risk‐neutral decision maker, we find that decision makers are consistently willing to pay too much for the option to eliminate the risk of supply not matching demand. Contrary to intuition, we show that risk aversion does not explain this result. We posit that demand information provides behavioral value because it mitigates regret from ex post inventory errors.     

Kernel-based semiparametric multinomial logit modelling of political party preferences

Conventional, parametric multinomial logit models are in general not sufficient for capturing the complex structures of electorates. In this paper, we use a semiparametric multinomial logit model to give an analysis of party preferences along individuals’ characteristics using a sample of the German electorate in 2006. Germany is a particularly strong case for more flexible nonparametric approaches in this context, since due to the reunification and the preceding different political histories the composition of the electorate is very complex and nuanced. Our analysis reveals strong interactions of the covariates age and income, and highly nonlinear shapes of the factor impacts for each party’s likelihood to be supported. Notably, we develop and provide a smoothed likelihood estimator for semiparametric multinomial logit models, which can be applied also in other application fields, such as, e.g., marketing.     

A statistical method to convert published response rates into marginal distributions with an example application in psoriasis

Assessment of severity is essential for the management of chronic diseases. Continuous variables like scores obtained from the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression or the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) are standard measures used in clinical trials of depression and psoriasis. In clinical trials of psoriasis, for example, the reduction of PASI from baseline in response to therapy, in particular the proportion of patients achieving at least 75%, 90%, or 100% improvement of disease (PASI 75, PASI 90, or PASI 100), is typically used to evaluate treatment efficacy. However, evaluation of the proportions of patients reaching absolute PASI values (eg, ≤1, ≤2, ≤3, or ≤5) has recently gained greater clinical interest and is increasingly being reported. When relative versus absolute scores are standard, as is the case with the PASI in psoriasis, it is difficult to compare absolute changes using existing published data. Thus, we developed a method to estimate absolute PASI levels from aggregated relative levels. This conversion method is based on a latent 2‐dimensional normal distribution for the absolute score at baseline and at a specific endpoint with a truncation to allow for baseline inclusion criterion. The model was fitted to aggregated results from simulations and from 3 phase III studies that had known absolute PASI proportions. The predictions represented the actual results quite precisely. This model might be applied to other conditions, such as depression, to estimate proportions of patients achieving an absolute low level of disease activity, given absolute values at baseline and proportions of patients achieving relative improvements at a subsequent time point.     

Public good and private good valuation for waiting time reduction: a laboratory study

In a laboratory experiment, subjects were endowed with money and waiting time. Preferences for waiting time reduction were elicited with salient rewards both as a private good and as a public good. The allocations of the public good that were theoretically predicted by the Nash equilibrium and the Lindahl equilibrium, respectively, were computed from the individual private good valuations and compared with the subjects?? actual contributions. We found a significant positive correlation between private good valuations in terms of willingness-to-pay and public good valuations in terms of voluntary contributions. Group contributions to public waiting time reduction significantly exceeded the non-cooperative prediction and were close to the socially optimal level. However, for a majority of subjects, the Lindahl equilibrium was not able to predict the observed contributions.     

Saving the Moral Capital of NGOs: Identifying One-Sided and Many-Sided Social Dilemmas in NGO Accountability

The literature on nonprofit management has embraced the concept of “accountability” to target urgent challenges related to NGO probity and integrity, and there have been attempts in the literature to use rational-choice-based governance approaches to solve them. Although the existing principal–agent frameworks provide important insights, they are limited to the analysis of financial relationships between NGOs and donors. We contribute to the literature in developing a comprehensive rational-choice-based governance approach to analyze all stakeholder relationships of NGOs. Applying the research program of ordonomics, we unpack two fundamental interaction problems: (a) the “stakeholder dilemma” between the NGO and a single accountability holder as a one-sided social dilemma and (b) the “competition dilemma” among rival NGOs as a many-sided social dilemma. We show that improving NGO accountability in relation to intended beneficiaries, peer organizations, and the general public also requires identifying the underlying governance problem as a competition dilemma focusing on collective self-regulation as a solution.     

Fat tail distributions and local thin tail alternatives

The behaviour of the Hill estimator for the tail index of fat tailed distributions in the presence of local alternatives which have a thin tail is investigated. The converse problem is also briefly addressed. A local thin tail alternative can severely bias the Hill statistic. The relevance of this issue for the class of stable distributions is discussed. We conduct a small simulation study to support the analysis. In the conclusion it is argued that for moderate out of sample quantile analysis the problem of local alternatives may be less pressing.     

The justice of earnings in dual-earner households

Over recent decades, the rise in female labor market participation and the increase in “atypical” employment arrangements have brought about a steady decline in traditional “male breadwinner” households and an increasing number of dual-earner households. Against this backdrop, the present paper investigates how different household contexts—ranging from traditional “male breadwinner” households to those challenging this model through joint contributions to household income—affect household members’ subjective evaluations of the justice of their personal income. In the first step, we derive three criteria used by individuals to evaluate the justice of personal earnings: compensation for services rendered, coverage of basic needs, and the opportunity to earn social approval. In the second step, we apply considerations from household economics and new approaches from gender research to explain why men's and women's evaluations of justice are determined to a considerable degree by the specific situation within their household. The assumptions derived regarding gender-specific patterns in justice attitudes are then tested on longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP). The results support our central thesis that dual-earner households both reinforce and undermine gender-specific patterns in the evaluation of personal earnings. These patterns are undermined because women in dual-income households tend to have higher income expectations that challenge the existing gender wage gap. At the same time, gender-specific patterns are reinforced because men evaluate the justice of their personal income in relation to their ability to fulfill traditional gender norms.