An Integrated Approach to Managing Change

Complex systems often involve a huge number of variables whose interdependence must be taken into account. This makes the adoption of an integrated approach essential for the proper management of a wide range of aspects related to human life, from social matters to the environment. In particular, this paper takes into consideration three different experiences in which the use of an integrated approach represented the most effective response for managing the evolving realities we took into consideration. We focused on the issue of land management, with particular attention to the problem of monoculture in Brazil. Then we analyzed the attempted cooperation between the States of the Aral Sea area for efficient water management of the basin and, finally, we dealt with the matter of energy efficiency and how the production of home integrated systems could lead to a better rationalization of energy consumption in the near future.      

Another look into the effect of premarital cohabitation on duration of marriage: an approach based on matching

Summary.  The paper proposes an alternative approach to studying the effect of premarital cohabitation on subsequent duration of marriage on the basis of a strong ignorability assumption . The approach is called propensity score matching and consists of computing survival functions conditional on a function of observed variables (the propensity score), thus eliminating any selection that is derived from these variables. In this way, it is possible to identify a time varying effect of cohabitation without making any assumption either regarding its shape or the functional form of covariate effects. The output of the matching method is the difference between the survival functions of treated and untreated individuals at each time point. Results show that the cohabitation effect on duration of marriage is indeed time varying, being close to zero for the first 2–3 years and rising considerably in the following years.     

Association of Problem Gambling with Type of Gambling Among Italian General Population

The origin of gambling disorders is uncertain; however, research has shown a tendency to focus on specific types of games as a potential important risk factor. The principal aim of this study is to examine the relationships between types of gambling practices and gambling disorder. The data were extracted from IPSAD-Italia^® 2010–2011 (Italian Population Survey on Alcohol and other Drugs), a survey among the Italian general population which collects socio-cultural information, information about the use of drugs, legal substances and gambling habits. In order to identify the “problem gambler” we used the Problem Gambling Severity Index. Three groups are considered in this analysis: no-risk gamblers, low-risk gamblers, moderate-risk/problem gamblers. Type of gambling practice was considered among two types of gambler: one-game players and multi-games players. 1.9 % of multi-game players were considered problem gamblers, only 0.6 % of one-game players were problem gamblers (p < 0.001). The percentage of players who were low and moderate-risk gamblers was approximately double among multi-game players, with 14.4 % low-risk and 5.8 % moderate-risk; compared with 7.7 % low-risk and 2.5 % moderate risk among one-game players. Results of ordinal logistic regression analysis confirmed that higher level of gambling severity was associated with multi-game players (OR = 2.23, p < 0.0001). Video-poker/slot-machines show the highest association with gambling severity among both one-game players and multi-game players, with scores of OR equal to 4.3 and 4.5 respectively. These findings suggest a popular perception of risk associated with this type of gambling for the development of gambling problems.     

Immigration,religious diversity and recognition of differences: the Italian way to multiculturalism

Migration entails, among other consequences, the presence of different cultures and religions. Italy, being a latecomer among immigration countries, has had specific difficulties in acknowledging the new cultural and religious pluralism brought by migrations, due to lack of knowledge and reflection in this sphere. In the more recent context of social and cultural change in Europe, Italian society is also going through a phase characterised by reactive identities and cultural conflicts. They are producing a diffused anti-multiculturalist opinion, even though multiculturalist policies have not been openly implemented. Thus, on the one hand, this situation has so far prevented a real recognition of cultural and religious differences, particularly concerning Islam. But on the other hand, positive actions in favour of migrants can also be observed, especially at the local level.     

Lot sizing with storage losses under demand uncertainty

We address a variant of the single item lot sizing problem affected by proportional storage (or inventory) losses and uncertainty in the product demand. The problem has applications in, among others, the energy sector, where storage losses (or storage deteriorations) are often unavoidable and, due to the need for planning ahead, the demands can be largely uncertain. We first propose a two-stage robust optimization approach with second-stage storage variables, showing how the arising robust problem can be solved as an instance of the deterministic one. We then consider a two-stage approach where not only the storage but also the production variables are determined in the second stage. After showing that, in the general case, solutions to this problem can suffer from acausality (or anticipativity), we introduce a flexible affine rule approach which, albeit restricting the solution set, allows for causal production plans. A hybrid robust-stochastic approach where the objective function is optimized in expectation, as opposed to in the worst-case, while retaining robust optimization guarantees of feasibility in the worst-case, is also discussed. We conclude with an application to heat production, in the context of which we compare the different approaches via computational experiments on real-world data.     

Examining the impact of social media on mood and body dissatisfaction using ecological momentary assessment

Abstract

Objective: To assess the effects of social media consumption on body dissatisfaction and negative affect using ecological momentary assessment, a method of assessment over time in the participants’ naturalistic environment. Participants: Woman college students (N?=?30) from a large public university participated in the study in Fall 2015. Methods: Participants were contacted via their smartphones five times per day for five days and asked to complete a battery of measures which assessed social media use, body dissatisfaction, and negative affect. Results: Results demonstrated that the number of social media sites visited was a significant predictor of body dissatisfaction while time spent using social media was not. The number of sites visited and time spent on social media were both significant predictors of general negative affect, sadness, and guilt. Conclusions: Results demonstrate the negative impact that social media use can have on body dissatisfaction and negative affect.     

Measuring Change Over Time in Socio-economic Deprivation and Health in an Urban Context: The Case Study of Genoa

Poverty and disability are interrelated, but data that can disentangle to what extent one causes the other and vice versa is not available. However, data from Vietnam allows us to examine this interrelationship in a way not done previously. Using small area estimation techniques, we uncover three findings not yet found in the literature. First, disability prevalence rates vary significantly within a country even at the district level. Second, the poverty gap between people with and without disabilities also varies at the district level. And most importantly, the size of that gap lessens based on district characteristics that can be affected by policy. Districts with better health care and infrastructure, such as road and health services, show less of a link between disability and poverty, supporting the hypothesis that improvements in infrastructure and rehabilitation service can lessen the impact of disability on families with disabled members.     

DEBT,POLICY UNCERTAINTY,AND EXPECTATIONS STABILIZATION

This paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for stabilizing expectations. Because of learning dynamics, uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy is shown to restrict, relative to a rational expectations analysis, the set of policies consistent with macroeconomic stability. Anchoring expectations by communicating about monetary and fiscal policy enlarges the set of policies consistent with stability. However, absent anchored fiscal expectations, the advantages from anchoring monetary expectations are smaller the larger is the average level of indebtedness. Finally, even when expectations are stabilized in the long run, the higher are average debt levels the more persistent will be the effects of disturbances out of rational expectations equilibrium.     

Testing for boundary conditions in case of fractionally integrated processes

Statistical Methods & Applications - Bounded integrated time series are a recent development of the time series literature. In this paper, we work on testing the presence of unknown boundaries...     

Chinese travel writing between (print) tradition and (digital) novelty: a transmedial approach to contemporary travel books and blogs

This article advances a transmedial comparison between several contemporary travelogues and travel blogs written by Chinese writers about China. The grounding assumption is that travel books and blogs are two mediated forms that realize the same generic matrix: travel writing. Building on research about classic Chinese travel writing and contemporary Internet Chinese literature, the article proposes a close reading of the texts with the aim, on the one hand, to understand how contemporary travel accounts – in print and online – follow and/or reinvent the genre, and, on the other hand, to bridge the gap between analogue and digital realms beyond their often over-accentuated differences. Findings suggest that contemporary Chinese travel books are much politicized. Contrary to traditional authors, who resorted to the genre in order to celebrate the status quo within the Middle Kingdom, today’s authors write about their travels in order to criticize the current political situation in China. Travel bloggers, instead, largely privilege a contemplative attitude towards their experiences; one that kindles a visually based and depoliticized writing that is very much in the spirit of classic texts.