After the End of History

Over the last century, the national approach has been the mainstream conception leading superpowers’ foreign policy, while the end of the Cold War brought about the worldwide multiplication of local conflicts. This differs from the past as this extensive international fragmentation urgently requires the adaptation of a new theoretical model to current international relations. This implies the re-consideration of some basic concepts such as national sovereignty, whose traditional fixed borders tend now to blur with a set of overlapping clusters of jurisdictional, economic, political, cultural interests.     

Purchasing performance management systems: an empirical investigation

This article aims at further developing the purchasing performance management systems (PPMSs) body of knowledge, assuming the wider perspective of the adoption process rather than key performance indicators (KPIs) only. In particular, the research questions are focused on understanding what are the most adopted indicators, what are the key elements characterising the implementation process and what are the differences among different organisational levels and different purchasing categories. The literature provides a framework for classifying purchasing KPIs, identifying the implementation process and the PPMS architecture, thus supporting the empirical research protocol. Nine case studies of large multinationals belonging to different industries are conducted. Empirical evidence shows that companies are still adopting mainly an external perspective, by focusing on performance measurement efforts on suppliers. Widely adopted indicators mainly measure cost, time and quality. However, the purchasing department has acquired an important role within the organisation and new performance indicators have been created; flexibility, innovation and sustainability are becoming increasingly important.     

The Insurance Industry in Jordan

This paper examines the structure and performance of the insurance industry in Jordan during the period of 2000–2005. The Jordanian insurance industry is free of state ownership in both primary insurance and reinsurance markets and has been spared the pervasive premium, product, investment, and reinsurance controls that have bedeviled the insurance markets of so many developing countries around the world. Despite these positive features, the insurance industry is not developed, which mainly reflects the underdevelopment of life insurance that has annual premiums of only 0.27 percent of GDP. In contrast, the level of general insurance is comparable to that of several other developing countries in the region. To overcome this situation a major modernization effort should be undertaken.      

DEBT,POLICY UNCERTAINTY,AND EXPECTATIONS STABILIZATION

This paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for stabilizing expectations. Because of learning dynamics, uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy is shown to restrict, relative to a rational expectations analysis, the set of policies consistent with macroeconomic stability. Anchoring expectations by communicating about monetary and fiscal policy enlarges the set of policies consistent with stability. However, absent anchored fiscal expectations, the advantages from anchoring monetary expectations are smaller the larger is the average level of indebtedness. Finally, even when expectations are stabilized in the long run, the higher are average debt levels the more persistent will be the effects of disturbances out of rational expectations equilibrium.     

Using Electronic Contact to Reduce Homonegative Attitudes,Emotions, and Behavioral Intentions Among Heterosexual Women and Men: A Contemporary Extension of the Contact Hypothesis

The current study experimentally examined the potential for a contemporary extension of the contact hypothesis, known as electronic contact, or E-contact, to reduce sexual prejudice, intergroup anxiety, and avoidant behavioral intentions among heterosexuals. It also extended the sexual minority contact literature by examining the role of participant and interaction partner sex as a possible boundary condition of this contact–prejudice relationship. To test our hypotheses, 140 heterosexual female and male university students were randomly allocated to interact with a homosexual or heterosexual, female or male E-contact partner, in a collaborative and text-only online interaction before completing the outcome measures. Overall, the results demonstrated that interacting online with a female, as opposed to a male, homosexual E-contact partner reduced heterosexual men’s feelings of intergroup anxiety, which in turn was associated with lower sexual prejudice and outgroup avoidance. For heterosexual women, however, E-contact did not influence the outcome variables. In the context of sexual prejudice, these results suggest that E-contact may be particularly useful as a prejudice-reduction strategy among individuals who typically require it most: heterosexual men.     

BENIGN NEGLECT OF COVENANT VIOLATIONS: BLISSFUL BANKING OR IGNORANT MONITORING?

Theoretically, bank's loan monitoring activity hinges critically on its capitalization. To proxy for monitoring intensity, we use changes in borrowers' investment following loan covenant violations, when creditors can intervene in the governance of the firm. Exploiting granular bank‐firm relationships observed in the syndicated loan market, we document substantial heterogeneity in monitoring across banks and through time. Better capitalized banks are more lenient monitors that intervene less with covenant violators. Importantly, this hands‐off approach is associated with improved borrowers' performance. Beyond enhancing financial resilience, regulation that requires banks to hold more capital may thus also mitigate the tightening of credit terms when firms experience shocks. (JEL G21, G32, G33, G34)     

Sub-Optimal Acquisition Decisions under a Majority Shareholder System

The high separation of ownership from control achieved through the concurrent use of non-voting shares and stock pyramiding could favor acquisitions made to increase private benefits of the controlling shareholders rather than all shareholders wealth. A standard event study methodology is carried out on three different samples of Italian acquisitions during the 1989–1996 period in order to test this hypothesis. We find evidence that a worse market reaction characterizes acquiring firms with a higher separation of ownership from control, while more value-enhancing transactions are undertaken by those smaller in size and with higher prior-performance. An entrenchment effect seems to determine a significant U-shaped relationship between the market reaction and the ultimate shareholder ownership. When the sample is restricted to acquiring firms with a dual class equity structure we find that non-voting shares report significantly negative excess returns in contrast to significantly higher positive returns for voting shares. Such evidence seems to indicate that the average acquisition has been overpaid, as suggested by the negative market reaction of the non-voting shares, while it was expected to lead to higher private benefits to the majority shareholders, as suggested by the revaluation of the voting shares. Finally, the market reaction to acquisitions made within pyramidal groups seems to indicate that the price is set so as to transfer wealth towards the companies located at the upper levels, where majority shareholders own greater fractions of the companies cash flows.JEL Codes: G34, G14A previous version of this paper was presented at the 1999 EFMA Conference in Paris, 1999 EFA Conference in Helsinki, and 1999 Australasian Banking and Finance Conference in Sydney. We would like to thank for helpful comments and suggestions, in alphabetical order: Lorenzo Caprio, Mara Faccio, Katiuscia Manzoni, Giovanni Siciliano, Sandro Sandri, the two anonymous referees and the editor. We would also like to thank Mara Faccio for providing ownership data. All remaining errors are ours.     

Estimating unobservable signal by Markovian noise induction

A sub threshold signal is transmitted through a channel and may be detected when some noise - with known structure and proportional to some level - is added to the data. There is an optimal noise level, called of stochastic resonance, that corresponds to the minimum variance of the estimators in the problem of recovering unobservable signals. For several noise structures it has been shown the evidence of stochastic resonance effect. Here we study the case when the noise is a Markovian process. We propose consistent estimators of the sub threshold signal and we solve further a problem of hypotheses testing. We also discuss evidence of stochastic resonance for both estimation and hypotheses testing problems via examples.     

Modelling spatio-temporal air pollution data from a mobile monitoring station

ABSTRACT

Environmental data is typically indexed in space and time. This work deals with modelling spatio-temporal air quality data, when multiple measurements are available for each space-time point. Typically this situation arises when different measurements referring to several response variables are observed in each space-time point, for example, different pollutants or size resolved data on particular matter. Nonetheless, such a kind of data also arises when using a mobile monitoring station moving along a path for a certain period of time. In this case, each spatio-temporal point has a number of measurements referring to the response variable observed several times over different locations in a close neighbourhood of the space-time point. We deal with this type of data within a hierarchical Bayesian framework, in which observed measurements are modelled in the first stage of the hierarchy, while the unobserved spatio-temporal process is considered in the following stages. The final model is very flexible and includes autoregressive terms in time, different structures for the variance-covariance matrix of the errors, and can manage covariates available at different space-time resolutions. This approach is motivated by the availability of data on urban pollution dynamics: fast measures of gases and size resolved particulate matter have been collected using an Optical Particle Counter located on a cabin of a public conveyance that moves on a monorail on a line transect of a town. Urban microclimate information is also available and included in the model. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed model over existing alternatives that do not model data over the first stage of the hierarchy.