Who Evacuates When Hurricanes Approach? The Role of Risk,Information, and Location*

Objective. This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions. Methods. We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight‐county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005. Results. We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas. Conclusions. Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.     

The shrinking or disappearing observed treatment effect

It is frequently noted that an initial clinical trial finding was not reproduced in a later trial. This is often met with some surprise. Yet, there is a relatively straightforward reason partially responsible for this observation. In this article, we examine this reason by first reviewing some findings in a recent publication in the Journal of the American Medical Association. To help explain the non‐negligible chance of failing to reproduce a previous positive finding, we compare a series of trials to successive diagnostic tests used for identifying a condition. To help explain the suspicion that the treatment effect, when observed in a subsequent trial, seems to have decreased in magnitude, we draw a conceptual analogy between phases II–III development stages and interim analyses of a trial with a group sequential design. Both analogies remind us that what we observed in an early trial could be a false positive or a random high. We discuss statistical sources for these occurrences and discuss why it is important for statisticians to take these into consideration when designing and interpreting trial results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hold or roll: reaching the goal in jeopardy race games

We consider a class of dynamic tournaments in which two contestants are faced with a choice between two courses of action. The first is a riskless option (“hold”) of maintaining the resources the contestant already has accumulated in her turn and ceding the initiative to her rival. The second is the bolder option (“roll”) of taking the initiative of accumulating additional resources, and thereby moving ahead of her rival, while at the same time sustaining a risk of temporary setback. We study this tournament in the context of a jeopardy race game (JRG), extend the JRG to $N > 2$ contestants, and construct its equilibrium solution. Compared to the equilibrium solution, the results of three experiments reveal a dysfunctional bias in favor of the riskless option. This bias is substantially mitigated when the contestants are required to commit in advance how long to pursue the risky course of action.     

Developing a Faith-Based Caregiver Support Partnership

Caring Together, Living Better (CTLB), a partnership of nonprofit and faith-based organizations, developed a culturally appropriate regional network of supportive caregiver services in the south suburbs of Chicago, IL. This article describes the findings of a mixed-methods evaluation that included network analysis to track network growth and development, tracking of service delivery, assessment of caregiver-related outcomes using standardized pre-post measures, and analysis of change stories elicited from project partners. Results include documentation of network expansion and statistically significant improvements in caregiving self-efficacy and adequacy of help. Story themes highlight participants’ positive experiences with CTLB and improved caregiver quality of life.     

Response distortion in adolescents who smoke: a pilot study

A wide range of data are obtained with self-report. Information obtained from persons using substances is generally reliable and valid, however, many studies show that some proportion of self-reports regarding substance use are inaccurate. This study examines self-reported response distortion in adolescents who received a brief intervention to reduce their smoking. Findings indicate that age and ethnicity of respondent may influence reported response distortion. Factors that appear to influence under- and over-reporting include social desirability and fear of repercussion. Response distortion does not appear to affect rated usefulness of the intervention, nor does intervention type appear to influence whether respondents thought the researcher wanted them to report less use. Results point to the need for further research regarding adolescents and response distortion.     

Abuse of Adolescents: Implications of North American Research for the UK

In the last edition of this journal we reviewed the extensive North Amercican (mainly US) literature on the abuse of adolescents. Here we look at the implications of the research for the current UK context.     

Occupational stress,relaxation therapies,exercise and biofeedback

Occupational stress is a widespread occurrence in the United States. It is a contributing factor to absenteeism, disease, injury and lowered productivity. In general stress management programs in the work place that include relaxation therapies, exercise, and biofeedback have been shown to reduce the physiological symptoms such as hypertension, and increase job satisfaction and job performance. Strategies to implement a successful stress management program include incorporating the coping activities into one's daily schedule, monitoring one's symptoms and stressors, and being realistic in setting up a schedule that is relevant and attainable. A short form of meditation, daily exercise program and the use of heart rate or thermal biofeedback can be helpful to a worker experiencing occupational stress.