Head movement during listening turns in conversation

In five subjects, head movement during conversation was monitored by polarised light goniometry, and recorded alongside speech and a signal proportional to peak amplitude of sound waves (peak loudness). Kinematic properties of listeners' head movements, such as amplitude, frequency and cyclicity, differentiated various conversational functions. That is, they were function-specific: symmetrical, cyclic movements were employed to signal yes, no or equivalents; linear, wide movements anticipated claims for speaking; narrow linear movements occurred in phase with stressed syllables in the other's speech (ynchrony movements); and wide, linear movements occurred during pauses in the other's speech. That, it is argued, bears upon the relation between thesignalling of communicative intentions and the synchronisation of interactional rhythm. Thus, the former appears to determine the timing and tempo of responses such as yes and no, while the latter determines the regulation of synchrony movements. The manner in which these factors interact in other conversational functions and their theoretical implications are discussed.     

Monitoring processes with data censored owing to competing risks by using exponentially weighted moving average control charts

In industry, process monitoring is widely employed to detect process changes rapidly. However, in some industrial applications observations are censored. For example, when testing breaking strengths and failure times often a limited stress test is performed. With censored observations, a direct application of traditional monitoring procedures is not appropriate. When the censoring occurs due to competing risks, we propose a control chart based on conditional expected values to detect changes in the mean strength. To protect against possible confounding caused by changes in the mean of the censoring mechanism we also suggest a similar chart to detect changes in the mean censoring level. We provide an example of monitoring bond strength to illustrate the application of this methodology.     

Zur Berücksichtigung von Heterogenit?t versus funktionaler Flexibilit?t in Absatzreaktionsmodellen: Eine empirische Studie auf Basis von Handelsdaten

In this paper, we explore the differences between store sales models that allow for heterogeneity in marketing effects across stores and models that accommodate potential irregularities in sales response through the use of nonparametric estimation techniques. In particular, we investigate the following question: What benefits can we gain from incorporating store heterogeneity versus functional flexibility in sales response models concerning fit and predictive validity, as compared to a simple parametric store sales model? In an empirical study based on store-level data, we also compare the different model versions with respect to estimated price elasticities and resulting shapes for own- and cross-price effects. Our empirical results indicate that addressing heterogeneity is not advantageous in general, as model fit, predictive validity and the accuracy of price elasticities did not improve for many brands. In contrast, estimating sales response flexibly provides much more potential for statistical improvements and leads to different implications concerning price elasticities, too.     

Grouped data exponentially weighted moving average control charts

In the manufacture of metal fasteners in a progressive die operation, and other industrial situations, important quality dimensions cannot be measured on a continuous scale, and manufactured parts are classified into groups by using a step gauge. This paper proposes a version of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts that are applicable to monitoring the grouped data for process shifts. The run length properties of this new grouped data EWMA chart are compared with similar results previously obtained for EWMA charts for variables data and with those for cumulative sum (CUSUM) schemes based on grouped data. Grouped data EWMA charts are shown to be nearly as efficient as variables-based EWMA charts and are thus an attractive alternative when the collection of variables data is not feasible. In addition, grouped data EWMA charts are less affected by the discreteness that is inherent in grouped data than are grouped data CUSUM charts. In the metal fasteners application, grouped data EWMA charts were simple to implement and allowed the rapid detection of undesirable process shifts.     

Forced Marriage and Birth Outcomes

We study the impact of marriages resulting from bride kidnapping on infant birth weight. Bride kidnapping—a form of forced marriage—implies that women are abducted by men and have little choice other than to marry their kidnappers. Given this lack of choice over the spouse, we expect adverse consequences for women in such marriages. Remarkable survey data from the Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan enable exploration of differential birth outcomes for women in kidnap-based and other types of marriage using both OLS and IV estimation. We find that children born to mothers in kidnap-based marriages have lower birth weight compared with children born to other mothers. The largest difference is between kidnap-based and arranged marriages: the magnitude of the birth weight loss is in the range of 2 % to 6 % of average birth weight. Our finding is one of the first statistically sound estimates of the impact of forced marriage and implies not only adverse consequences for the women involved but potentially also for their children.     

Urban human ecology

Cities are human ecosystems. Eight primary concepts assist us in understanding human ecosystems in terms of variability, time, and complexity. These concepts include: systems thinking; language, culture, and technology; structure, function, and change; edges, boundaries, and ecotones; interaction, integration, and institution; diversity; adaptation; and holism. Hierarchy theory presents a framework for organizing these concepts. Human settlements can be viewed hierarchically, that is, from a more immediate scale to the global. In this paper, the eight concepts will be explored and applied to the urban context. The exploration of human ecology is useful to design and plan the built environment. The ability to respond to change and to adjust actions positively helps to determine the resilience of cities     

Urbanization and warming of Phoenix (Arizona,USA): Impacts,feedbacks and mitigation

This paper examines the impacts, feedbacks, and mitigation of the urban heat island in Phoenix, Arizona (USA). At Sky Harbor Airport, urbanization has increased the nighttime minimum temperature by 5°C and the average daily temperatures by 3.1°C. Urban warming has increased the number of misery hours per day for humans, which may have important social consequences. Other impacts include (1) increased energy consumption for heating and cooling of buildings, (2) increased heat stress (but decreased cold stress) for plants, (3) reduced quality of cotton fiber and reduced dairy production on the urban fringe, and (4) a broadening of the seasonal thermal window for arthropods. Climate feedback loops associated with evapotranspiration, energy production and consumption associated with increased air conditioning demand, and land conversion are discussed. Urban planning and design policy could be redesigned to mitigate urban warming, and several cities in the region are incorporating concerns regarding urban warming into planning codes and practices. The issue is timely and important, because most of the world's human population growth over the next 30 years will occur in cities in warm climates.     

Strategic planning in non-profits: profit from it

Non-profit human service organizations, both public and private, face unique challenges and opportunities in the climate of the 1990s as human needs are increasing, funding is decreasing, and threats to organizational well-being are encountered. The purpose of this paper is to describe, advocate for, and illustrate a strategic planning model which facilitates a proactive, energizing, futuristic vision as services are being planned and delivered. Three case examples are used: a large state-run county social services department; a small, private, sectarian agency that provides group home services for the developmentally disabled; and a medium sized federal public health hospital.