Maternal Hurricane Exposure and Fetal Distress Risk

Logistic regression and spatial analytic techniques are used to model fetal distress risk as a function of maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew. First, monthly time series compare the proportion of infants born distressed in hurricane affected and unaffected areas. Second, resident births are analyzed in Miami‐Dade and Broward counties, before, during, and after Hurricane Andrew. Third, resident births are analyzed in all Florida locales with 100,000 or more persons, comparing exposed and unexposed gravid females. Fourth, resident births are analyzed along Hurricane Andrew's path from southern Florida to northeast Mississippi. Results show that fetal distress risk increases significantly with maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew in second and third trimesters, adjusting for known risk factors. Distress risk also correlates with the destructive path of Hurricane Andrew, with higher incidences of fetal distress found in areas of highest exposure intensity. Hurricane exposed African‐American mothers were more likely to birth distressed infants. The policy implications of in utero costs of natural disaster exposure are discussed.     

University student enrollment forecasts by analysis structural ratios using ARIMA-methods

Summary Forecasts for the number of students in Germany are conducted by the Kultusministerkonferenz. They use a transition model which does not allow for prediction intervals and therefore lack a measure of uncertainty of the forecast. Since the uncertainty is high for such forecasts, this lack is of importance. In this paper, structural ratios, relating the number of university students to the population of the same age, are analyzed and forescasted using ARIMA-models with outliers. Multiplying these ratios with official population forecasts for Germany provides the future number of students, additionally giving prediction intervals. This number will increase from 1.94 million in 2002 to 2.35 million in 2015. The uncertainty of the forecast is high; the forecast interval in 2015 will range between 1.72 and 2.98 million at a 95% confidence level. Supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG). We are grateful to an anonymous referee for some helpful comments.     

A learning collaborative approach to training school-based health providers in evidence-based mental health treatment

Collaborative care models among pediatric primary care and child and adolescent mental health providers are increasingly emphasized to improve quality of and access to mental health services. The current case example of a multi-site clinical training opportunity in school-based collaborative care settings illustrates the success of a learning collaborative approach to improve children's mental health care in schools. Quality improvement data from participating sites indicated an increase in use of evidence-based practices (i.e., “core skills”) and an improvement in quality service delivery indicators for children's mental health (i.e., screening, risk assessment, diagnostic processes, associated diagnostic coding, use of core skills, associated procedural coding, and follow-up assessment and referral) over time. Clinician self-report and chart review data are supplemented by qualitative data from site leader interviews conducted following completion of the project. Implications for mental health workforce development to improve the quality of care to children and adolescents in schools and other community mental health settings are discussed.     

PEOPLE AND PLACES: WELFARE REFORM AND THE SEPARATE EFFECT OF CASELOAD CHARACTERISTICS AND LOCAL CONDITIONS

An intersectional feminist approach informs qualitative content analyses of gender and trade advocacy websites in order to gain insights into the relation between trade liberalization and women in the global South. Findings include these websites are advocating for more representation in policymaking institutions spanning the global and local divide; emphasizing the need for networks within and outside institutions; and advocating for alternatives to free trade. The diverse and often contradictory understandings and strategies displayed by these websites arise from concern with giving voice to local needs and women in the South. These findings underscore the contributions a feminist approach makes to global political economy research by bringing attention to the heterogeneity of global political economic processes and power relations, and providing insights as to how global counter-hegemonic efforts can embrace diversity rather than being homogenizing.     

DO LAB EXPERIMENTS MISREPRESENT SOCIAL PREFERENCES? THE CASE OF SELF‐SELECTED STUDENT SAMPLES

Social preference research has received considerable attention among economists in recent years. However, the empirical foundation of social preferences is largely based on laboratory experiments with self‐selected students as participants. This is potentially problematic as students participating in experiments may behave systematically different than nonparticipating students or nonstudents. In this paper we empirically investigate whether laboratory experiments with student samples misrepresent the importance of social preferences. Our first study shows that students who exhibit stronger prosocial inclinations in an unrelated field donation are not more likely to participate in experiments. This suggests that self‐selection of more prosocial students into experiments is not a major issue. Our second study compares the behavior of students and participants recruited from the general population in a trust experiment. In general, we find very similar behavioral patterns for the two groups, but nonstudents make significantly more generous repayments suggesting that results from student samples might be seen as a lower bound for the importance of prosocial behavior.     

Sustainable Development and Capabilities for the Polar Region

The paper develops a sustainable development framework for individual and collective capabilities in mixed subsistence and wage-based economies. We apply this framework to such regions of the Arctic and evaluate interactions and conflicts between two sectors of the mixed economy and between current and future generations of Arctic inhabitants. A recent Arctic Social Indicators Report published by the Arctic Human Development Report (AHDR) Task Force recognizes the importance of the mixed economy in the Arctic and aims to integrate collective assets, as well as individual assets in order to understand the human development in the Arctic. Yet due to its concerns of comparability of social development and data availability across the whole Arctic region (of which some parts do not have the similar population structure), its proposed indicators are not capable of covering the social development of predominantly indigenous regions of the North. We emphasize the importance of tracking collective capabilities, as well as individual capabilities to sustain community development. In addition we suggest that environmental sustainability, which is ignored by the AHDR Task Force, has to be integrated with social development as environmental deterioration significantly influences the social well-being and cultural stability of traditional inhabitants of the Arctic. We critically review the proposed indicators of the AHDR Task Force and make supplementary and alternative suggestions.     

Global sourcing in integrated network structures: The case of hybrid purchasing organizations

An issue for companies in globally competitive markets is to adapt their organizational structures and governance in increasingly complex organizations. At the functional level of purchasing, companies are turning to hybrid purchasing organizations in order to leverage global sourcing benefits. One of the key challenges in this context is to distinguish between categories to be integrated across sites and those that are to remain under the authority of each purchasing location in order to maximize purchasing synergies.This paper presents a purchasing portfolio model that provides a comprehensive view of relevant global synergy dimensions. Based on a literature review, a theoretically-grounded purchasing portfolio model for global sourcing is developed. The theoretical basis stems from information processing theory, organizational buying behavior (OBB) and transaction cost economics. The validity of the model is explored by means of case study research. Complementing the extant literature, the theoretical contribution of the paper lies in not only addressing category selection criteria for exploiting economies of scale, but also for economies of information and learning and economies of process. Furthermore, it provides insights regarding integrated network coordination mechanisms at the functional level of purchasing.     

Regularized Gaussian belief propagation

Belief propagation (BP) has been applied in a variety of inference problems as an approximation tool. BP does not necessarily converge in loopy graphs, and even if it does, is not guaranteed to provide exact inference. Even so, BP is useful in many applications due to its computational tractability. In this article, we investigate a regularized BP scheme by focusing on loopy Markov graphs (MGs) induced by a multivariate Gaussian distribution in canonical form. There is a rich literature surrounding BP on Gaussian MGs (labelled Gaussian belief propagation or GaBP), and this is known to experience the same problems as general BP on graphs. GaBP is known to provide the correct marginal means if it converges (this is not guaranteed), but it does not provide the exact marginal precisions. We show that our adjusted BP will always converge, with sufficient tuning, while maintaining the exact marginal means. As a further contribution we show, in an empirical study, that our GaBP variant can accelerate GaBP and compares well with other GaBP-type competitors in terms of convergence speed and accuracy of approximate marginal precisions. These improvements suggest that the principle of regularized BP should be investigated in other inference problems. The selection of the degree of regularization is addressed through the use of two heuristics. A by-product of GaBP is that it can be used to solve linear systems of equations; the same is true for our variant and we make an empirical comparison with the conjugate gradient method.