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This article develops a new identification procedure to estimate the contemporaneous relation between monetary policy and the stock market within a vector autoregression (VAR) framework. The approach combines high-frequency data from the futures market with the VAR methodology to circumvent exclusion restrictions and achieve identification. Our analysis casts doubt on VAR models imposing a recursive structure between innovations in policy rates and stock returns. We find that a tightening in policy rates has a negative impact on stock prices and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has responded significantly to movements in the stock market. Estimates are robust to various model specifications.     

The nature,extent and determinants of violence against psychiatric personnel

Violence against psychiatric staff seems to be on the increase. Such abuse can lead to mental health consequences for the staff and a reluctance to be closely involved with patients. Few Swedish investigations have examined violence against mental nurses and psychiatrists, or undertaken comparative studies between them. In this study we examined the extent, nature and determinants (i.e. risk factors) of violence against psychiatric nurses (n = 731) and psychiatrists (n = 320) working in the eight health care districts of Stockholm. These caregivers were assessed cross-sectionally by means of a questionnaire covering various areas (e.g. violence and work environment). The majority of the participants (85%) reported having been exposed to violence during their careers, with 57% being victimized in the past 12 months. Physical violence was common, and factors such as negative attitudes to work and diminished sense of autonomy were associated with an increased vulnerability to violence. Nurses and psychiatrists did not differ in violence variables. In spite of the weaknesses of the design (cross-sectional self-selecting sample), this study corroborates previous findings and identifies personal factors associated with violence that have received little attention in the literature (e.g. lack of respect for the organization of care).     

‘Show me the money and the party!’ – variation in Facebook and Twitter adoption by politicians

Our study explores the adoption of Facebook and Twitter by candidates in the 2013 German Federal elections. Utilizing data from the German Longitudinal Election Study candidate survey fused with data gathered on the Twitter and Facebook use of candidates, we draw a clear distinction between Facebook and Twitter. We show that adoption of both channels is primarily driven by two factors: party and money. But the impact of each plays out differently for Facebook and Twitter. While the influence of money is homogenous for Facebook and Twitter with the more resources candidates have, the more likely they are to adopt, the effect is stronger for Facebook. Conversely, a party’s impact on adoption is heterogeneous across channels, a pattern we suggest is driven by the different audiences Facebook and Twitter attract. We also find candidates’ personality traits only correlate with Twitter adoption, but their impact is minimal. Our findings demonstrate that social media adoption by politicians is far from homogenous, and that there is a need to differentiate social media channels from one another when exploring motivations for their use.     

Technological forecasting as a guide for managerial planning

The author discusses the limitations of statistical forecasting as a guide to managerial planning, with specific reference to technological and market changes in the glass industry. He advocates the use of a Forecast Adjustment Matrix as a framework for identifying marketing and technological factors which might produce significant deviations from established trends. Finally, he suggests that the analysis and adjustment of technological and market trends should be made periodically. The whole technological forecasting operation should be formalized and it should be made the specific responsibility of one organizational unit within the company.