Quantifying the Hurricane Catastrophe Risk to Offshore Wind Power

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100‐year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10‐year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk.     

Transition from school for youths with a disability: issues and challenges

Australian research has demonstrated that students with a disability are more likely to remain out of the full‐time workforce. These research findings have been the catalyst for a call for a comprehensive career development and transition planning approach for all students with disabilities in schools as well as for employers to rethink the role of people with disabilities in the workforce. In the Australian context the transition from school for individuals with a disability is complicated by a disparate and fragmented group of service agencies providing a range of services, including employment, supported accommodation, recreation and leisure pursuits, as well as training and placement, along with, at times, a deep‐seated prejudice towards people with disabilities in the market place. This paper reviews a number of issues and challenges confronting individuals with a disability making the transition from school to the post‐school environment.     

Into the divide: community identities and the visualisation of place

This article discusses the experience of place in a profoundly divided urban area of Sheffield. At a time when the gap between affluence and poverty has reached its widest point since the 1960s, this article explores the relationship between individuals and their sense of place and of the trenchant divisions separating communities. The study employs various methods but centres upon the use of hand-drawn maps; creating a dialogue between the interviewers and a number of local residents. These maps and the accompanying commentaries demonstrate the diverse individual sense of a particular place and a dialectical sense of space. The resulting picture is one of both the persistence of historical divisions, suggesting regulation and control through planning and policing, but also of complex entanglements of social identities, habitus and place which defy easy categorisation.     

Rational exchange and trust: Business relationships in a fishing community

This paper assesses the hypothesis that in markets where information is lacking concerning the price and the quality of a commodity and the commodity is variable in its supply, sellers will tend to form long‐term, stable relationships with buyers. Data from a coastal Alabama community are used to test the nature of exchange relations between commercial shrimp fishers and the dealers to whom they sell. It is further hypothesized that the social aspects of these exchanges will better predict stable relationships than will economic aspects. The evidence presented supports the stated hypotheses. Finally, the relevance of this research for social theory is discussed.     

Reply

This article develops a new identification procedure to estimate the contemporaneous relation between monetary policy and the stock market within a vector autoregression (VAR) framework. The approach combines high-frequency data from the futures market with the VAR methodology to circumvent exclusion restrictions and achieve identification. Our analysis casts doubt on VAR models imposing a recursive structure between innovations in policy rates and stock returns. We find that a tightening in policy rates has a negative impact on stock prices and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has responded significantly to movements in the stock market. Estimates are robust to various model specifications.     

The nature,extent and determinants of violence against psychiatric personnel

Violence against psychiatric staff seems to be on the increase. Such abuse can lead to mental health consequences for the staff and a reluctance to be closely involved with patients. Few Swedish investigations have examined violence against mental nurses and psychiatrists, or undertaken comparative studies between them. In this study we examined the extent, nature and determinants (i.e. risk factors) of violence against psychiatric nurses (n = 731) and psychiatrists (n = 320) working in the eight health care districts of Stockholm. These caregivers were assessed cross-sectionally by means of a questionnaire covering various areas (e.g. violence and work environment). The majority of the participants (85%) reported having been exposed to violence during their careers, with 57% being victimized in the past 12 months. Physical violence was common, and factors such as negative attitudes to work and diminished sense of autonomy were associated with an increased vulnerability to violence. Nurses and psychiatrists did not differ in violence variables. In spite of the weaknesses of the design (cross-sectional self-selecting sample), this study corroborates previous findings and identifies personal factors associated with violence that have received little attention in the literature (e.g. lack of respect for the organization of care).     

On the robustness of the extreme deviate test for a single multivariate outlier against heavy-tailed distributions

In this paper we assess the sensitivity of the multivariate extreme deviate test for a single multivariate outlier to non-normality in the form of heavy tails. We find that the empirical significance levels can be markedly affected by even modest departures from multivariate normality. The effects are particularly severe when the sample size is large relative to the dimension. Finally, by way of example we demonstrate that certain graphical techniques may prove useful in identifying the source of rejection for the multivariate extreme deviate test.