Input-output technologies and the effects of tariff reductions

Using input-output (IO) tables from several developed countries (United States, EEC, and Japan) and one developing country (Brazil), we calculate the effects of tariff removal using various combinations of these tables to represent technologies for the countries included in the Michigan Computational Model of World Production and Trade. Among the IO tables, Brazil's reflected unusually high shares of value added, low labor shares, and small supply elasticities. Supply elasticities for the developed countries were somewhat lower than for the United States. Using the Michigan model, our calculated effects of tariff reductions are overstated using the U.S. IO table to represent technologies for other developed countries. Further, for developing countries that use import licensing, the model shows considerable sensitivity to IO table specification. It is especially important, therefore, for computational purposes to obtain the most accurate information possible about IO structures of developing countries.     

Likelihood inference for small variance components

The authors explore likelihood‐based methods for making inferences about the components of variance in a general normal mixed linear model. In particular, they use local asymptotic approximations to construct confidence intervals for the components of variance when the components are close to the boundary of the parameter space. In the process, they explore the question of how to profile the restricted likelihood (REML). Also, they show that general REML estimates are less likely to fall on the boundary of the parameter space than maximum‐likelihood estimates and that the likelihood‐ratio test based on the local asymptotic approximation has higher power than the likelihood‐ratio test based on the usual chi‐squared approximation. They examine the finite‐sample properties of the proposed intervals by means of a simulation study.     

New directions for management accounting

Using a general systems rationale, this paper develops a theoretical structure for approaching the problem of management accounting. The management control problem is explicated in terms of maintaining a relationship between the enterprise's structure and its environment. An enterprise's structure is composed of three elements (and their inter-relations): a decision and control subsystem; a financial funds subsystem and an operating (physical transforms) subsystem. Portrayed in these terms, the problem of management accounting is shown to require a methodology which is able to take cognizance of economic, sociological, psychological and other aspects of the enterprise system. The model described here provides a general intellectual frame of reference for ordering the problem.     

Derivation of a Target Level of Lead in Soil at Residential Sites Corresponding to a De Minimis Contribution to Blood Lead Concentration1

Inability to define either a clear toxicologic threshold or a stochastic all-or-nothing (cancer-type) response model for the noncarcinogenic effects of lead (Pb) in young children has posed difficulties for derivation of risk-based target levels of Pb in residential soil. Approaches based on empirical relationships between Pb levels in blood (PbB) and Pb in soil suffer from inability to specify the numerous variables which mediate between these two quantities. Approaches based on achieving a toxicologically de minimis target PbB level (e.g., 10 μg/dl) are subject to large uncertainty in estimating the distribution of existing PbB levels in a specific exposed population and in estimating the relative contribution from nonsoil sources of Pb. The multisource contribution to the distribution of PbB makes this approach unsuited for determination of a target Pb level in a single medium. An alternative approach is presented based on achieving a de minimis contribution to PbB (ΔPbB) from soil. Contributions to Pb exposure from outdoor soil and indoor soil-derived dust (ISDD) are modeled and appropriate values are suggested for input parameters. This analysis predicts that chronic exposure of young children to 200 μg Pb/g (ppm) in residential soil will result in a ΔPbB of 2 μg Pb/dl blood. This concentration of Pb in soil may provide an appropriate target level for residential soil when other significant sources of Pb exposure are present. In other cases, this approach can be used to predict a soil concentration of Pb corresponding to an appropriate non-de minimisΔPbB.     

Social mobility and the interpretation of social class mortality differentials

The discussion of health inequalities in Britain (e.g. in the Black Report) has been conducted largely on the basis of social class mortality differentials measured by achieved social class and not by social class of origin. It is shown in this paper that social class mortality differentials by achieved social class are not invariant to the rate of social mobility and that the use of them is likely to result in a biased measure of trends in health inequalities when the absolute rate of social mobility varies over time. It is further shown that if, as is likely, health status is a factor systematically affecting the probability for an individual of upward or downward social mobility, then an increase in the rate of social mobility may well result in constant or widening social class mortality differentials by achieved social class even if the differentials are narrowing when measured by social class of origin. It is claimed that this process may well explain why the observed social class mortality differentials, which are measured by achieved social class, have not fallen in Britain during the post-1945 period.