Predicting losses of residential structures in the state of Florida by the public hurricane loss evaluation model

As an environmental phenomenon, hurricanes cause significant property damage and loss of life in coastal areas almost every year. Although a number of commercial loss projection models have been developed to predict the property losses, only a handful of studies are available in the public domain to predict damage for hurricane prone areas. The state of Florida has developed an open, public model for the purpose of probabilistic assessment of risk to insured residential property associated with wind damage from hurricanes. The model comprises three components; viz. the atmospheric science component, the engineering component and the actuarial science component. The atmospheric component includes modeling the track and intensity life cycle of each simulated hurricane within the Florida threat area. Based on historical hurricane statistics, thousands of storms are simulated allowing determination of the wind risk for all residential Zip Code locations in Florida. The wind risk information is then provided to the engineering and actuarial components to model damage and average annual loss, respectively. The actuarial team finds the county-wise loss and the total loss for the entire state of Florida. The computer team then compiles all information from atmospheric science, engineering and actuarial components, processes all hurricane related data and completes the project. The model was submitted to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology for approval and went through a rigorous review and was revised as per the suggestions of the commission. The final model was approved for use by the insurance companies in Florida by the commission. At every stage of the process, statistical procedures were used to model various parameters and validate the model. This paper presents a brief summary of the main components of the model (meteorology, vulnerability and actuarial) and then focuses on the statistical validation of the same.     

Authors’ responses to the discussion on “Predicting losses of residential structures in the state of Florida by the Public Hurricane Loss Evaluation Model”

Hurricanes threaten the Florida coast line every year and are capable of causing catastrophic losses. The Public Hurricane Loss Model was developed in response to the need for having an open transparent model to predict the above losses. The results were summarized in the paper “Predicting Losses of Residential Structures in the State of Florida by the Public Hurricane Loss Model” which was subsequently a subject of discussion by experts in Meteorology, Engineering, Actuarial Sciences and Statistics. The present paper presents a response to the discussions on the above mentioned article.     

Serials Workflow Adaptation and the New ILS

Abstract

This article examines serials workflow adaptation at Notre Dame University Libraries in the context of migration from the NOTIS LMS to the Aleph 500 ILS. In addition to detailing three specific workflows—check-in, claiming, and binding—in NOTIS versus Aleph 500, the authors discuss the workflow adaptation process in general. Emphasis is placed not only on the pragmatic side of the process but also on its psychological aspects. The last section of the article outlines several suggestions for how to deal with expectations for workflow that simply do not match a new system's functionality. Serials Review 2002; 28:298–315.     

The Access/Impact Problem and the Green and Gold Roads to Open Access

Abstract

The research access/impact problem arises because journal articles are not accessible to all of their would-be users; hence, they are losing potential research impact. The solution is to make all articles Open Access (OA; i.e., accessible online, free for all). OA articles have significantly higher citation impact than non-OA articles. There are two roads to OA: the “golden” road (publish your article in an OA journal) and the “green” road (publish your article in a non-OA journal but also self-archive it in an OA archive). Only 5% of journals are gold, but over 90% are already green (i.e., they have given their authors the green light to self-archive); yet only about 10–20% of articles have been self-archived. To reach 100% OA, self-archiving needs to be mandated by researchers' employers and funders, as the United Kingdom and the United States have recently recommended, and universities need to implement that mandate.     

Confidence Bounds and Hypothesis Tests for Normal Distribution Coefficients of Variation

For normally distributed populations, we obtain confidence bounds on a ratio of two coefficients of variation, provide a test for the equality of k coefficients of variation, and provide confidence bounds on a coefficient of variation shared by k populations.     

Offending behaviours of persons with schizophrenia: a case review of psychiatric halfway houses in Hong Kong

Persons with schizophrenia are believed to have a higher risk for criminal offending, especially for violent offences. Offending behaviour among schizophrenics is mediated by a variety of factors such as substance abuse and clinical symptoms. However, existing studies have failed to identify the association between those mediating factors and particular types of offence. This study examines the association between substance abuse, clinical symptoms and different types of offences among persons with schizophrenia. Three hundred and sixty eight case files of residents diagnosed with schizophrenia in four psychiatric halfway houses in Hong Kong were reviewed. Substance abuse, but not clinical symptoms, was associated with general conviction rate. Violent-related offences were found to be positively associated with paranoid delusion; persons with common thought disorders, negative symptoms and who abused substances were more likely to commit property crimes. The causes and mediating factors of various offences were different. It is concluded that attention should be given to the recent mental status, clinical symptoms and social condition in studying the offending behaviours of persons with schizophrenia.     

New ways of believing or belonging: is religion giving way to spirituality?1

In this article, the presence of alternative spirituality and practices within the general culture and their relationship to institutional religion are examined using national survey data collected as part of the 2001 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey. Alternative practices are found to divide into two groups of interests: concerns with personal well-being and interest in divination. Better-educated women are much more likely to engage with holistic practices associated with well-being; a minority of younger, less well-educated women are more likely to have found horoscopes, astrology, fortune-telling and tarot 'important in their lives'. Churchgoers find divination antithetical to religion while the use and salience of a range of holistic practices is as acceptable among churchgoers as it is among non-attenders and the secular (once allowance has been made for the connections between putatively alternative practices, gender, age and education). This underscores a focus on personal well-being rather than alternative spirituality in the consumption of holistic products and practices within the general culture. The study findings are used to assess claims for a spiritual revolution in modern Britain.     

Adding insult to injury: development and initial validation of the Partner-Directed Insults Scale

Women who are verbally abused by their intimate male partners suffer serious mental health consequences and often experience physical violence in their relationship. Despite the importance of studying verbal abuse, no previous research has investigated the specific content of the insults men use to derogate their partners. We present the development and initial validation of a new measure designed to assess the specific content of insults used by men against their intimate partners. In a preliminary study, we used feedback from battered women, along with a review of the relevant literature, to identify specific insults for inclusion in the Partner-Directed Insults Scale (PDIS). We administered the PDIS to a sample of United States participants (Study 1) and a sample of New Zealand participants (Study 2), allowing for a cross-national investigation of the specific insults that men use to derogate their partners. The results demonstrate the practical need for such a scale and provide evidence for the discriminant validity of the PDIS by documenting that men's use of insults predicts their use of controlling behaviors and physical violence.     

Part II. Work hardening for warriors: Training military Occupational Therapy professionals in the management of combat stress casualties

The purpose of this article is to describe the training of military occupational therapy personnel in a unique application of their professional skills. Ergonomic principles of training for stressful environments were implemented to ensure training effectiveness and transfer of skills to combat situations. Training schedules, casualty role-play scenarios, critical incident stress debriefing principles and scenarios, unit survey guidelines, and premises for training persons to function under stressful conditions are provided. Comparisons with civilian applications are drawn, and suggestions for future roles and training for Occupational Therapy professionals are given.     

Randomized Online Scheduling with Delivery Times

We study one of the most basic online scheduling models, online one machine scheduling with delivery times where jobs arrive over time. We provide the first randomized algorithm for this model, show that it is 1.55370-competitive and show that this analysis is tight. The best possible deterministic algorithm is 1.61803-competitive. Our algorithm is a distribution between two deterministic algorithms. We show that any such algorithm is no better than 1.5-competitive. To our knowledge, this is the first lower bound proof for a distribution between two deterministic algorithms.