Properties of Bayes Factors Based on Test Statistics

Abstract.  This article examines the consistency, interpretation and application of Bayes factors constructed from standard test statistics. Primary conclusions are that Bayes factors based on multinomial and normal test statistics are consistent for suitable choices of the hyperparameters used to specify alternative hypotheses, and that such constructions can be extended to obtain consistent Bayes factors based on likelihood ratio statistics. A connection between Bayes factors based on likelihood ratio statistics and the Bayesian information criterion is exposed, as is a connection between Bayes factors based on F statistics and parametric Bayes factors based on normal-inverse gamma models. Similarly, Bayes factors based on chi-squared statistics for multinomial data are shown to provide accurate approximations to Bayes factors based on multinomial/Dirichlet models. An illustration of how the simple form of these Bayes factors can be exploited to generate easily interpretable summaries of the experimental 'weight of evidence' is provided.     

EXECUTION PUBLICITY AND HOMICIDE IN SOUTH CAROLINA:

A recurrent flaw marks the work on the impact of executions on homicide: awareness of executions on homicide: awareness of exceutions usually is left unmeasured. The present study addresses this, inspecting the effect of publicized executions on homicide. Data from South Carolina are employed. Homicide drops 17.5% in months with publicized executions. In contrast, little publicized executions are unrelated to homicide. The effect is reduced when publicized executions for rape enter the analysis. Alternative assumptions regarding the length of the effect are tested: the death dip decreases with the use of an instantaneous effect period; it becomes nonsignificant with a lengthy incubation period. The findings, however, can be interpreted from several different theoretical perspectives: deterrence, normative validation, and victim mobilization. Hence, policy implications remain tenuous.     

Psychological implications of childhood meatotomies

This paper informs clinicians about the nature of childhood meatotomies, and presents two cases which suggest that the presence of a meatotomy in the developmental history of male clients should alert clinicians to the potential significance of particular body damage fears and body integrity issues in the client.     

Efficacy and Outcome Expectations Influence Career Exploration and Decidedness

In this multiple regression model, self-efficacy beliefs are the best predictor of career indecision, and outcome expectations are the best predictor of exploration intentions. When indecision was entered as a predictor, it also was a significant predictor of exploration intentions—students who were less decided were also more likely to plan career exploration. Career efficacy and outcome expectations relate significantly more strongly within the group of college men than within the group of college women. Implications for social cognitive career theory and practice are discussed.     

THE SOCIAL MANAGEMENT OF AMBITION

This study of "the social management of ambition' (Hopper 1968) analyzes the changes in occupational expectations that occur among a group of ambitious high school seniors during the seven years after graduation. The predictions of a socialization and of a social reproduction model of the process of expectations change are compared using data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972. Loglinear analysis is used to estimate a model, with a focus on the roles played by race, gender, social origins, and marriage. Less than one-fifth of the original sample remained "on track' toward achieving their original goals, most often members of already advantaged groups (whites and those from upper-middle-class homes). Married women were among the "cumulatively disadvantaged,' unlike their single peers. Marriage in particular had very different consequences for members of different social groups.     

Applying anticipatory and relational perspectives to the Nigerian delta region oil crisis

This paper addresses crisis communication shortcomings of oil companies working in the Nigerian delta region. The anticipatory model of crisis communication is blended with the public relations relational perspective to demonstrate how oil companies have responded to crises in the delta region in a manner contrary to what would be consistent with these perspectives. The result has been persistent turmoil in the region and significant distrust of the organizations.     

Linking Financial Strain to Marital Instability: Examining the Roles of Emotional Distress and Marital Interaction

Using a sample consisting of 4,997 married couples from the National Survey of Families and Households, individual emotional distress, the occurrence of couple disagreements, couple fighting, and couple quality time together mediated the relationship between financial strain and personal assessments of marital instability. The overall results suggest that financial strain influences both positive and negative forms of couple interaction which are stronger mediators than personal emotional distress of the relationship between financial strain and marital instability. The results further suggest that there were no gender differences among these linkages.