A simple recursive estimation method for linear regression models with AR(p) disturbances

An exact transformation that reduces the AR(p) process into white noise is well known in statistics, see Fuller (1976). However, practitioners still use and econometric textbooks still recommend the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure for p>2, see Greene (1990). This paper derives an alternative exact transformation for the AR(p) process which is computationally simple. Based on this transformation, a GLS estimator is proposed, requiring only least squares regressions and recursive computations. This is illustrated for the AR(3) case.     

The effect of lawyers on non-discipline/discharge arbitration decisions

Both labor and management often have a lawyer present their case at an arbitration hearing. This paper investigates whether the probability of obtaining a favorable arbitration outcome was related to the use of legal counsel. An analysis of 1,284 Canadian non-discipline/discharge cases revealed that a party was more likely to receive a favorable award when it had legal representation and the other side did not. However, there was no difference in win rates when the outcomes of cases in which both parties used lawyers were compared with those in which neither side was represented by legal counsel. Support for this research was provided by a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council/Saint Mary’s University Matching Grant. The excellent research assistance of Nancy Canavan is gratefully acknowledged.     

ASYMPTOTIC EXPANSIONS APPLIED TO F-TEST CRITERIA

Using asymptotic expansions of the Kummer hypergeometric function, the sequential. F-test criterion is evaluated asymptotically in terms of the sample size. The continuation region inequalities for the test are inverted and expressed in terms of known test criteria. A rapidly converging algorithm for carrying out the sequential procedure is provided. This makes the F-test easier for the practitioner to use. Almost sure finite termination of the sequential. F-test is asserted by appealing to the continuation inequalities and a heuristic asymptotic expansion of the test criterion. Average stopping times of the sequential procedure for a variety of population means and population number configurations are tabulated. The computer symbolic manipulation program MAPLE was used to derive some formulae.     

Vocal signs of confidence

This study examined whether two paralinguistic variables, vocal loudness and response latency, were associated with confidence in answers to trivia questions. Audience presence and size were manipulated and subjects' assertiveness was measured. Subjects verbally responded to trivia questions by indicating their choice and how confident they were in each answer. Tapes of these responses were later analyzed for latency of response and loudness of speech. As expected, the more confident individuals were in their answers, the faster and louder they responded. Assertive subjects spoke louder. The presence of an audience had no effects on vocal responding. Apparently, the confidence of a speaker can be inferred from the speed and loudness of the speaker's responses.This study was a Master's thesis project conducted by the second author under the supervision of the first author.     

The evolving concept of "retirement": Looking forward to the year 2050

Economic growth, more than demography, will determine the nature of future retirement. With growth has come a steady increase in retirement years. Now, however, there is increasing interest in "rolling back" these gains. Alternatively, some scholars propose a different framework for evaluating "work" late in life — one that includes altruism, citizenship, stewardship, creativity, and the search for faith. Attitudes toward retirement in the future are likely to move sharply away from the simplistic view of all work before retirement and no work after. Some of the resulting changes we can expect to see are more part-time work, expanded "citizen participation," and an older workforce with more training and retraining.