Estimation of the Parameters of the Birnbaum–Saunders Distribution

Some alternative estimators to the maximum likelihood estimators of the two parameters of the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution are proposed. Most have high efficiencies as measured by root mean square error and are robust to departure from the model as well as to outliers. In addition, the proposed estimators are easy to compute. Both complete and right-censored data are discussed. Simulation studies are provided to compare the performance of the estimators.     

Some New Bounds on the Probability of Extinction of a Galton–Watson Process with Numerical Comparisons

Some new upper and lower bounds for the extinction probability of a Galton–Watson process are presented. They are very easy to compute and can be used even if the offspring distribution has infinite variance. These new bounds are numerically compared to previously discussed bounds. Some definite guidelines are given concerning when these new bounds are preferable. Some open problems are also discussed.     

Temporal Dependence and Bias in Meta-Analysis

Decisions to undertake bio-medical studies might depend on the results of previous similar studies. So too might the timing of meta-analyses. We show how temporal dependence among the studies analyzed in the meta-analysis, as well as the timing of the meta-analysis itself, can bias the results of the meta-analysis. We show analytically and numerically that a “toy” meta-analysis is biased. We then study bias in a more realistic stochastic process model of meta-analysis. We conclude that in meta-analysis it is difficult of avoid bias that is caused by statistical dependence among studies.     

On the independence problem and kendall's tau

A modification of Kendall's test for independence is described which allows one to test for association in a bivariate distribution as measured by Kendall's tau, a property not shared by Kendall's procedure. The proposed procedure, however, still provides an exactly distribution-free test of independence. The test procedure is inverted to obtain a confidence interval for tau which has distinct advantages over the currently employed confidence interval.     

A structural model for the markov chain of change in vote intention

Assuming a first-order Markov chain, we propose a structural model for the transition probabilities in vote intention. The proposed model utilizes the ordering among the categories representing vote intentions and carries the flavor of distance models. It also allows a stochastic ordering among distributions reflecting the extent of change. The model is easy to fit and provides a nice interpretation of the data. The model is applied to a panel study of vote intention acquired through six successive interviews before the 1940 Presidential election in Erie County, Ohio.     

The Role of Chance in the Census Bureau Database Reconstruction Experiment

Population Research and Policy Review - The Census Bureau plans a new approach to disclosure control for the 2020 census that will add noise to every statistic the agency produces for places below...     

Big Microdata for Population Research

This article describes an explosion in the availability of individual-level population data. By 2018, demographic researchers will have access to over 2 billion records of accessible microdata from over 100 countries, dating from 1703 to the present. Another 2 to 4 billion records will be available through restricted-access data enclaves. These new resources represent a new kind of data that will enable transformative research on demographic and economic change and the spatial organization of society.     

Adult Social Bonds and Use of Internet Pornography*

Objective. Sociological theories of deviant behavior have not been systematically applied to the problem of who uses and who does not use cyberpornography on the Internet. The present study contributes to the literature by providing the first systematic application of selected sociological theories of deviance to the problem of explaining use of cyberpornography. It tests a blended theoretical perspective, which includes measures from social control and opportunity theories of deviance, as well as measures of broader deviant lifestyles, as possible predictors of use of cyberporn. A key hypothesis is that persons with the strongest ties to conventional society will be less likely than others to use cyberporn. Methods. Complete data on 531 Internet users are taken from the General Social Surveys for 2000. Social bonds measures include religious, marital, and political ties. Measures of participation in sexual and drug‐related deviant lifestyles, and demographic controls are included. Results. The results of a logistic regression analysis found that among the strongest predictors of use of cyberporn were weak ties to religion and lack of a happy marriage. However, past sexual deviance (e.g., involvement in paid sex) was also a strong predictor of cyberporn use. Overall the model explained 40 percent of the variance in porn use on the Internet. Conclusion. Traditional theoretical perspectives on deviance are apparently applicable to this new form of deviant behavior.     

Forestalling the Business Veto: Investment Confidence and the Rise of Swedish Social Democracy, 1932–1936

Objective. We investigate the causes of the stability of Swedish business confidence in the early 1930s. Surprisingly, investors seemed unruffled by the Social Democrats' heterodox "Crisis Program," a proto–Keynesian response to the Great Depression. This research allows a productive modification of the argument that the state is dependent on private capital formation. Methods. Analysis of stock markets, currency prices, patterns of domestic investment, as well as written primary sources in Swedish and English. Results. The cross–class cooperation practiced by the Social Democrats, and the lack of a threat of radicalization, had an important calming effect on investors. Conclusions. To avoid capital flight and resulting economic dislocation, reformist governments must cooperate with business and conservatives, and turn away from workers and revolutionaries.