The future of public sector unionism in the United States

The future of nonpublic safety, non-teacher, non-federal public sector unions is bright. As a result of past success, the unions, led by AFSCME, have an organizing culture and sufficient power within the sector to maintain and increase density. However, the challenges that lie ahead in the 21st century will surely test the strength of AFSCME and the other public service unions. The large gains in public employee membership achieved in the last third of the 20th century are not likely to come with the relative ease with which they were achieved during that period. The remaining unorganized workers are in locations and occupations that have not been historically fertile ground for unions, public or private. In addition, the threat of privatization of jobs requires public unions to re-think their traditional strategies and organize in the more hostile private sector while simultaneously protecting the public sector from attacks. The public sector unions recognize that they have a tenuous grasp on their relatively strong position and must organize to maintain and strengthen their position. Absent dramatic changes in federal private sector labor law, and adoption of numerous public sector labor laws, the resources necessary for organization will be tremendous. The future is bright for the public sector unions only because they have demonstrated a willingness to adapt to change, make sacrifices, and deploy sufficient resources to achieve growth. The views herein are the author’s and do not necessarily represent the views of AFSCME.     

International Business Cycle Asymmetry and Time Irreversible Nonlinearities

Using tests of time reversibility, this paper provides further statistical evidence on the long-standing conjecture in economics concerning the potentially asymmetric behaviour of output over the expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle. A particular advantage of this approach is that it provides a discriminating test that is instructive as to whether any asymmetries detected are due to asymmetric shocks to a linear model, or an underlying non-linear model with symmetric shocks, and in the latter case is informative as to the potential form of that nonlinear model. Using a long span of international per capita output growth data, the asymmetry detected is overwhelmingly consistent with the long standing perception that the output business cycle is characterized by steeper recessions and longer more gentle expansions, but the evidence for this form of business cycle asymmetry is weaker in the data adjusted for the influence of outliers associated with wars and other extreme events. Statistically significant time irreversibility is reported for the output growth rates of almost all of the countries considered in the full sample data, and there is evidence that this time irreversibility is of a form implying an underlying nonlinear model with symmetrically distributed innovations for 15 of the 22 countries considered. However, the time irreversibility test results for the outlier-trimmed full sample data reveal significant time irreversibility in output growth for around one half of the countries considered, predominantly in Northern Europe and North America, and of a form implying a nonlinear underlying model in only a further half of those cases.     

Characteristics of technically progressive firms

Carter and Williams' study of the organizational and managerial characteristics of technically progressive firms remains one of the most frequently cited studies in this field. In this paper we replicate and extend eight of Carter and Williams' findings in a study of innovation in the United States footwear industry. We replicate Carter and Williams' tests but extend their results by conducting the tests in a more rigorous fashion and calculating the independent relationships of each variable with technical progressiveness. Because of the more rigorous methodology we can specify what aspects of their general concepts are related to technical progressiveness. Our results indicate strong relationships between technical progressiveness and (1) the technical expertise of the managerial staff; and (2) the openness of the formal inter-departmental communications structure. Carter and Williams' findings are supported insofar as their general concepts reflect aspects of these variables.     

OBJECT RELATIONS AND THE FAMILY SYSTEM IN BULIMIA: A THEORETICAL INTEGRATION

This paper presents an integration of object relations theory and family systems theory in the conceptualization of bulimia. It is based primarily on Winnicott's construct of the maternal "holding environment," and Klein's formulation of ego deficits at the level of part-object relations, as they apply to the family as a whole. We propose that in bulimic families there are transgenerational developmental deficits and adaptations which determine the level and quality of intrapsychic experience within individuals, as well as the interpersonal relationships and dynamic functioning of the larger family system.     

Social Deviance and the 'Discovery' of the Moron

American psychologist Henry H. Goddard's introduction of the Binet test in the United States was hailed by contemporaries as a major advance in diagnostic technique. With it he 'discovered' the moron, who was believed to suffer from a mild type of mental deficiency that had previously been unidentified. But Goddard had actually grafted his new classification onto an older tradition that was based on social judgments about what constituted normal behaviour. This paper describes the social context of Goddard's discovery along with the assumptions and methods that resulted in his 'scientific' confirmation of the earlier, socially constructed prototype.     

Longitudinal measurement models in evaluation research: Examining stability and change

This article provides an introduction to the use of Confirmatory Factor Analysis to test measurement invariance and stability in longitudinal research. The approach is illustrated through examples representing: (a) one construct, two measurement waves; (b) one construct, three waves; (c) two constructs, two waves; and (d) comparison of treatment and control groups in pre-post designs. Basic issues in establishing measurement invariance over time, across treatment groups, and within measurement waves are discussed. Estimates of the stability coefficients that are corrected for measurement error and method variance associated with each specific measured variable are provided. Establishing measurement invariance is a critical requirement for making inferences about treatment effects and changes in constructs over time.     

Environmental Tobacco Smoke: Science vs. Rhetoric

After an extensive review and analysis of the scientific evidence on the respiratory health effects of passive smoking, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency concluded that environmental tobacco smoke causes lung cancer in adult nonsmokers and increases the risk of a variety of non-cancer respiratory disorders, especially in children. This article is a response to claims in Dr. Gio Gori's article "Policy Against Science: The Case of Environmental Tobacco Smoke," appearing in the same issue of this journal, that such conclusions are unwarranted. This response focuses only on the respiratory health effects of environmental tobacco smoke.