Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?

We identify the effects of monetary policy on credit risk‐taking with an exhaustive credit register of loan applications and contracts. We separate the changes in the composition of the supply of credit from the concurrent changes in the volume of supply and quality, and the volume of demand. We employ a two‐stage model that analyzes the granting of loan applications in the first stage and loan outcomes for the applications granted in the second stage, and that controls for both observed and unobserved, time‐varying, firm and bank heterogeneity through time*firm and time*bank fixed effects. We find that a lower overnight interest rate induces lowly capitalized banks to grant more loan applications to ex ante risky firms and to commit larger loan volumes with fewer collateral requirements to these firms, yet with a higher ex post likelihood of default. A lower long‐term interest rate and other relevant macroeconomic variables have no such effects.     

Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data

We present new identification results for nonparametric models of differentiated products markets, using only market level observables. We specify a nonparametric random utility discrete choice model of demand allowing rich preference heterogeneity, product/market unobservables, and endogenous prices. Our supply model posits nonparametric cost functions, allows latent cost shocks, and nests a range of standard oligopoly models. We consider identification of demand, identification of changes in aggregate consumer welfare, identification of marginal costs, identification of firms' marginal cost functions, and discrimination between alternative models of firm conduct. We explore two complementary approaches. The first demonstrates identification under the same nonparametric instrumental variables conditions required for identification of regression models. The second treats demand and supply in a system of nonparametric simultaneous equations, leading to constructive proofs exploiting exogenous variation in demand shifters and cost shifters. We also derive testable restrictions that provide the first general formalization of Bresnahan's (1982) intuition for empirically distinguishing between alternative models of oligopoly competition. From a practical perspective, our results clarify the types of instrumental variables needed with market level data, including tradeoffs between functional form and exclusion restrictions.     

Intergenerational Coresidence and Family Transitions in the United States, 1850 - 1880

This study uses a new source of linked census data (N = 6,734) to test theories proposed to explain the high intergenerational coresidence in 19th‐century America. Was it a system of support for dependent elderly, or did it reflect intergenerational interdependence? I focus on transitions from middle age to old age, and I assess key predictors of family transitions, including widowhood, retirement, disability, migration, and wealth. The results show that adverse events precipitated changes in the headship of intergenerational families but did not increase the likelihood of residing in an intergenerational family. The findings suggest that 19th‐century intergenerational coresidence was not principally a means of old‐age support; more often, probably, there was a reciprocal relationship between generations.     

Nursing home deficiency citations for safety

Deficiency citations for safety violations in U.S. nursing homes from 2000 to 2007 are examined (representing a panel of 119,472 observations). Internal (i.e., operating characteristics of the facility), organizational factors (i.e., characteristics of the facility itself), and external factors (i.e., characteristics outside of the influence of the organization) associated with these deficiency citations are examined. The findings show that nursing homes increasingly receive deficiency citations for resident safety issues. Low staffing levels, poor quality of care, and an unfavorable Medicaid mix (occupancy and reimbursement) are associated with the likelihood of receiving deficiency citations for safety violations. In many cases, this likely influences the quality of life and quality of care of residents.     

Beyond Association: How Employees Want to Participate in Their Firms' Corporate Social Performance

Although many studies have found a positive relationship between corporate social performance and employer attractiveness, few have examined how different forms of responsibility might mediate that attraction, particularly when those social practices afford different degrees of employee participation. The current study undertook this line of inquiry by examining prospective employees’ attraction to three common approaches to corporate social performance (CSP) that offer increasing levels of participation: donation, volunteerism, and operational integration. Unexpectedly, findings from an empirical investigation challenged the study's main hypothesis; that is, prospective employees were least attracted to firms that integrated their social and financial goals. Consequently, important implications and questions remain for both employers and business educators.     

Consumer Heterogeneity and Paid Search Effectiveness: A Large‐Scale Field Experiment

Internet advertising has been the fastest growing advertising channel in recent years, with paid search ads comprising the bulk of this revenue. We present results from a series of large‐scale field experiments done at eBay that were designed to measure the causal effectiveness of paid search ads. Because search clicks and purchase intent are correlated, we show that returns from paid search are a fraction of non‐experimental estimates. As an extreme case, we show that brand keyword ads have no measurable short‐term benefits. For non‐brand keywords, we find that new and infrequent users are positively influenced by ads but that more frequent users whose purchasing behavior is not influenced by ads account for most of the advertising expenses, resulting in average returns that are negative.     

Peter C. Fishburn (1936–2021)

Theory and Decision -     

Substitute-care information systems under public law 96-272

This paper reports on the results of a survey of state responses to the requirements of Public Law 96-272, including the use of permanency planning and periodic review techniques in substitutecare services, and, in particular, the nature and scope of information systems developed to monitor these services. Officials from 44 states and the District of Columbia completed the survey.All respondents reported having implemented statewide policies requiring permanency planning for and periodic review of all substitute-care cases. Those surveyed also indicated strongly favorable attitudes toward these policies among both administrators and direct-service personnel.A large majority (85%) of responding states had developed automated information systems for substitute care, most in the form of a central, statewide data base. Only four states reported depending solely on manual record keeping. The computer systems were most frequently used for administrative applications such as generating aggregate reports, monitoring case reviews, and coordinating caseloads. Applications least commonly reported included reducing narrative recording, determining placement availability, and linking clients to resources, activities more common to direct services. Finally, results of a set of attitudinal questions indicated support for the use of automated data management and the belief that it is a necessary technology, but many respondents also noted that automation has engendered complaints and opposition from staff members in field settings.     

Advances in Exponential Random Graph (p*) Models Applied to a Large Social Network

Recent advances in statistical network analysis based on the family of exponential random graph (ERG) models have greatly improved our ability to conduct inference on dependence in large social networks (Snijders 2002, Pattison and Robins 2002, Handcock 2002, Handcock 2003, Snijders et al. 2006, Hunter et al. 2005, Goodreau et al. 2005, previous papers this issue). This paper applies advances in both model parameterizations and computational algorithms to an examination of the structure observed in an adolescent friendship network of 1,681 actors from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (AddHealth). ERG models of social network structure are fit using the R package statnet, and their adequacy assessed through comparison of model predictions with the observed data for higher-order network statistics.For this friendship network, the commonly used model of Markov dependence leads to the problems of degeneracy discussed by Handcock (2002, 2003). On the other hand, model parameterizations introduced by Snijders et al (2006) and Hunter and Handcock (2006) avoid degeneracy and provide reasonable fit to the data. Degree-only models did a poor job of capturing observed network structure; those that did best included terms both for heterogeneous mixing on exogenous attributes (grade and self-reported race) as well as endogenous clustering. Networks simulated from this model were largely consistent with the observed network on multiple higher-order network statistics, including the number of triangles, the size of the largest component, the overall reachability, the distribution of geodesic distances, the degree distribution, and the shared partner distribution. The ability to fit such models to large datasets and to make inference about the underling processes generating the network represents a major advance in the field of statistical network analysis.