UNDERSTANDING CHANGES IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE DYNAMICS

The volatility of economic activity in most G7 economies has moderated over the past 40 years. Also, despite large increases in trade and openness, G7 business cycles have not become more synchronized. After documenting these facts, we interpret G7 output data using a structural VAR that separately identifies common international shocks, the domestic effects of spillovers from foreign idiosyncratic shocks, and the effects of domestic idiosyncratic shocks. This analysis suggests that, with the exception of Japan, a significant portion of the widespread reduction in volatility is associated with a reduction in the magnitude of the common international shocks. Had the common international shocks in the 1980s and 1990s been as large as they were in the 1960s and 1970s, G7 business cycles would have been substantially more volatile and more highly synchronized than they actually were. (JEL: C3, E5)     

Exercise behavior in older adults: a test of the transtheoretical model

The transtheoretical model (TTM) was developed as a guide for understanding behavior change. Little attention has been given, however, to the appropriateness of the TTM for explaining the adoption of exercise behavior in older adults. The purposes of this study were to determine the reliability of the TTM instruments and validate TTM predictions in 86 community-dwelling older adults (mean age 75.1 +/- 7.0 years, 87% women) who were participants in a 16-week walking program. TTM construct scales--self-efficacy, decisional balance (pros and cons), and processes of change (behavioral and cognitive)--were generally reliable (all>.78). Behavioral processes of change increased from baseline to follow-up, but pros, cons, and cognitive processes did not change among participants who became regular exercisers. Stage of change did not predict exercise adoption, but baseline self-efficacy predicted walking behavior. These results lend partial support to the TTM in predicting exercise behavior.     

The Perennial Nature of the Catholic Worker Farms: A Reconsideration of Failure

Contemporary challenges in rural and environmental politics hinge on understanding what success and failure mean. One avenue of studying success and failure of political and social change efforts is to study social movements and intentional communities often equated with how many years such efforts persisted. The Catholic Worker movement's combination of a vision of radical social change, religion, nonviolence, hospitality, activism, and agrarianism involve publications, urban houses, and farms that constitute a movement and a network of autonomous intentional communities. The Catholic Worker movement's communal farms began in 1933 and at various points those efforts were deemed failures. Thus, the story of the Catholic Worker farms is one of impermanence and struggle for a desired ideal. However, what we are missing in condemning the farms to failure is the utter success since the 1970s of a strong agrarian and environmental strain of the Catholic Worker movement based on farm activity, activism, and cooperative economics. This study reconceptualizes failure in the language of process and context. The Catholic Worker farms case study refigures failure such that we can articulate a politics of possibility related to the dramatic challenges not only of society but also of the environment.     

Analysis of the strain on employees in the retail sector considering work-life balance

Many companies currently strive to support their employees' work-life balance through appropriate measures in order to improve employees' loyalty towards the company and to recruit new employees. In this context, flexibility in the area of working times is a measure that can influence employees' private lives immensely. This is why the individualisation of working time arrangements has been accorded high importance in current discussions on work-life balance. In this area, best practice examples can be found showing how working-time arrangements can improve the situation of the employees. It should be noted, however, that there is not one single perfect working-time model. A working-time model must always be adapted specifically to the actual situation of the company and the employees. Therefore, a targeted analysis of the challenges facing the company and the demands on the employees is essential for the creation of an appropriate working time policy. In particular, the employees' working-time preferences must be appropriately taken into account. Owing, however, to a combination of organisational complications and legal data protection restrictions, it is for the most part impossible to meet these working-time preferences in their entirety. This paper, which is based on an employee survey, illustrates the strain on employees in the retail sector and identifies different types of working-time preferences.     

So you want to earn a Ph.D. in economics: how much do you think you'll make?

Using data from individuals who earned a Ph.D. in economics in 1996-97, this study identifies factors associated with securing full-time permanent positions and determinants of starting salaries for new Ph.D. economists. Where individuals attend graduate school and factors including the field of specialization and work as a teaching/research assistant impact whether graduates obtain full-time permanent jobs. Choice of graduate program and amount of time spent in the program influence starting salary, as does obtaining a position outside academia or in a research-oriented academic institution, both of which entail higher salaries relative to employment at a B.A.-level academic institution.     

Heteroskedasticity‐Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression

The conventional heteroskedasticity‐robust (HR) variance matrix estimator for cross‐sectional regression (with or without a degrees‐of‐freedom adjustment), applied to the fixed‐effects estimator for panel data with serially uncorrelated errors, is inconsistent if the number of time periods T is fixed (and greater than 2) as the number of entities n increases. We provide a bias‐adjusted HR estimator that is ‐consistent under any sequences (n, T) in which n and/or T increase to ∞. This estimator can be extended to handle serial correlation of fixed order.     

A CUSUM SCHEME BASED ON THE EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION FOR SURVEDLLANCE OF RARE CONGENITAL MALFORMATIONS

A method of monitoring the incidence of malformations is described. It is suitable for systems where the number of births between successive malformations is known or can be estimated with reasonable accuracy. The method utilises a cusum technique based on the exponential distribution to detect an increase in the incidence of malformations above a baseline level. Adequate information to enable the implementation of the method is presented. The proposed method compares favourably with others such as the Poisson cusum and the modified sets technique.     

MULTIVARIATE NORMALITY AND A BOND RATING DECISION MODEL*

An assumption of multivariate normality for a decision model is validated in this paper. Measurements for the independent variables of a bond rating model were taken from a sample of municipal bonds. Three methods for examining both univariate and multivariate normality (including normal probability plots) are described and applied to the bond data. The results imply, after applying normalizing transformations to four of the variables, that the data reasonably approximate multivariate normality, thereby validating a distributional requirement of the discriminant-analysis-based decision model. The methods described in the paper may also be used by others interested in examining multivariate normality assumptions of decision models.