Forecasting mortality rates via density ratio modeling

The authors propose a semiparametric approach to modeling and forecasting age‐specific mortality in the United States. Their method is based on an extension of a class of semiparametric models to time series. It combines information from several time series and estimates the predictive distribution conditional on past data. The conditional expectation, which is the most commonly used predictor in practice, is the first moment of this distribution. The authors compare their method to that of Lee and Carter.     

Safety culture

'Developing a positive health and safety culture is important if high standards of health and safety are to be achieved and maintained. There is a limit to the health and safety performance an organization can achieve without addressing the contribution which human factors have to play in eliminating occupational accidents and ill health' (David Eves, Deputy Director UK Health and Safety Executive; HSE 1997).     

Applying anticipatory and relational perspectives to the Nigerian delta region oil crisis

This paper addresses crisis communication shortcomings of oil companies working in the Nigerian delta region. The anticipatory model of crisis communication is blended with the public relations relational perspective to demonstrate how oil companies have responded to crises in the delta region in a manner contrary to what would be consistent with these perspectives. The result has been persistent turmoil in the region and significant distrust of the organizations.     

Cleveland 20 years on: themes of disruption and repair in the trauma narratives of children,adults and society

This is the second of two linked papers which explores coherent and incoherent narratives emerging from Cleveland. It draws a parallel between the disrupted narratives of child and adult survivors of child sexual abuse and professional and societal narratives of Cleveland. The paper looks at the therapeutic task of individual repair using attachment‐based therapy, illustrated by clinical examples. It identifies five key challenges relevant to repair in the interpersonal, intra‐personal and societal domains. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social Work Education and Clinical Learning

In response to a growing diversity of opinion regarding educational models and essential content in clinical social work education, this paper offers a perspective concerning graduate clinical curricula. Part I, the foundational piece of the paper, discusses the definition of clinical social work, social work’s core orientation and values, and influential contextual issues. The interrelated core orientations guiding knowledge and skill development are identified as the person-in-situation perspective and the concept of relationship. Based on this foundation, Part II identifies elements of a contemporary biopsychosocial knowledge base and essential clinical skills. This paper is intended to stimulate dialogue about a topic of importance to the profession and the clients it serves.     

CONDITIONAL INFERENCE ABOUT AN EQUICORRELATION COEFFICIENT

SenGupta (1987) proposed a locally most powerful test which is globally (one sided) unbiased, and an estimator of p, the equicorrelation coefficient of a standard symmetric multivariate normal (SSMN) distribution. Here we use the idea in Williams (1984) to illustrate the construction and use of ancillary statistics to make inference about p. The test and confidence intervals based on this construction are conditionally optimal.     

Managing Contradiction: Stockholder and Stakeholder Views of the Firm as Paradoxical Opportunity

Stockholder and stakeholder perspectives have been positioned in the literature as being in tension, and thus a potential source of innovation and change. However, researchers have overlooked a systematic examination of this presumption in theory and in practice. This study explores the ways that stockholder and stakeholder assumptions are presented by theorists and compares these with expressions of stockholder and stakeholder perspectives used by firms in practice. We argue that theoretical entrenchment dichotomizing these perspectives has disrupted the ability of researchers to leverage this tension. While scholarship remains trapped in a vicious cycle, we also argue that firms in practice express only the acceptance dimension of a virtuous cycle. Our empirical research demonstrates that firms accept and accommodate the paradoxical tension between managing for stockholders versus balancing the interests of stakeholders. This is evidenced by strategies we identify as book‐ending, cadence, continuous and simultaneous co‐mingling, and hybridization. We find that in practice these tensions are more integrated whereas in theory they are treated as more distinct and, often, in conflict. We suggest ways in which both scholarship and practice can better leverage tension as paradoxical opportunity.