Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Martingale generalizations and preservation of martingale properties

This article investigates circumstances under which seven important martingale properties are preserved by the following six martingale generalizations: quasimartingales, amarts, martingales in the limit, games fairer with time, progressive martingales, and eventual martingales.     

CHERRIES, LEMONS, AND THE FTC: MINIMUM QUALITY STANDARDS IN THE RETAIL USED AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY

The FTC initially considered two forms of regulation in the used automobile market, requiring dealers to either certify or warrant the mechanical condition of each automobile sold. Since the regulation would have been imposed only on dealers and not on private sellers, its effectiveness was dependent on the magnitude of the induced shift of sales into the private market. Accordingly, this paper employs a gametheoretic model to examine the theoretical conditions under which society could be expected to benefit from either regulatory alternative. Among other things, it is concluded that a socially beneficial minimum quality standard may not exist in some situations.     

Professor Cuneo's analysis of class exploitation in Canada*

Ce texte examine l'étude faite par le professeur Cuneo sur la relation entre l'exploitation des classes et les conflits manifestes entre les classes au Canada. Nous démontrons que la thèse de Cuneo selon laquelle il existe une relation positive entre ces variables est fausse, étant donné que pour arriver à ses indices, Cuneo s'est servi de statistiques erronnées sur le taux de plus-value, les grèves et les lock-outs.
Profesor Cuneo's study of the relation between class exploitation and overt class conflict in Canada is examined. We show that his finding of a positive relation between these variables is based on errors in constructing his indices of the rate of surplus value and strike and lockout activity.     

Structural Aspects of Differences in Income between Anglophones and Francophones*

Cet article compare les données publiées par Raynauld et al. concernant les différences dans le revenu entre les Français et les Anglais à l'aide de données récentes provenant d'une enquête sur échantillon. Il souligne plusieurs faiblesses méthodologiques de l'analyse de Raynauld. Une mise en parallèle des données recueillies en 1961 et en 1968 révèle un nivellement des différences dans le revenu durant cette période. Bien que le taux « national » du revenu moyen des francophones par rapport à celui des anglophones se rapproche de l'unité, les différences dans le revenu se sont accentuées chez les travailleurs au bas de l'échelle professionnelle. Cette conclusion ainsi que d'autres résultats permettent d'invoquer la « discrimination » comme étant un facteur influençant le niveau de revenu. This paper compares the data on French-British income differences presented by Raynauld et al. with more recent survey data. It mentions several methodological criticisms of Raynauld's analysis. Comparisons between data gathered in 1961 and 1968 indicate a levelling of the income differences during that period. Although the nation-wide ratio of francophone to anglophone incomes is now closer to unity, the income disparity has increased for persons in lower-skilled occupations. These and other findings invite various interpretations of “discrimination” as a variable related to income.     

Continuities in Support for Racial Equality, 1972 to 1976

Capitalizing upon the panel component of the 1972–1976National Election Study, we explore change in white Americans'support for racial equality. Two general propositions regardingindividual change are examined: frustration-aggression theory,which attributes change to the stresses and strains of privatelife; and realistic group conflict theory, which attributeschange to the tangible threats blacks pose to whites' privateinterests. We find intermittent support for the first and virtuallyno support for the second. Much more impressive is the durabilityof opinion on racial equality, the insulation of racial opinionfrom the ostensibly powerful predicaments of private life.