Self-Directed Gambling Changes: Trajectory of Problem Gambling Severity in Absence of Treatment

Most problem gamblers do not seek formal treatment, recovering on their own through cognitive re-appraisal or self-help strategies. Although barriers to treatment have been extensively studied, there is a paucity of research on self-directed changes in problem gambling and very few studies have examined these changes prospectively. The aim of this study was to examine the trajectory of gambling severity and behavior change over an 18-month period, among a sample of non-treatment seeking/attending problem gamblers recruited from the community (N?=?204) interested in quitting or reducing gambling. Separate mixed effects models revealed that in absence of formal treatment, significant reductions in gambling severity, frequency, and amount gambled could be observed over the course of a 6 to 9-month period and that changes experienced within the first 12 months were maintained for an extended 6 months. Problem gambling severity at baseline was significantly associated with changes in severity over time, such that participants with more severe gambling problems demonstrated greater reductions in their gambling severity over time. A total of 11.1% of participants gambled within a low-risk threshold at 18 months, although 28.7% of the sample reported consecutive gambling severity scores below problem levels for the duration of 1 year or longer. The findings suggest that among problem gamblers motivated to quit or reduce their gambling, significant self-directed changes in gambling severity can occur over a relatively short time. Additional prospective studies are needed to document the role of specific self-help tools or thought processes in exacting gambling changes.     

Unclaimed Prize Information Biases Perceptions of Winning in Scratch Card Gambling

Unclaimed prize information (i.e., the number of prizes still available to be won) is information commonly provided to scratch card gamblers. However, unless the number of tickets remaining to be purchased is also provided, this information is uninformative. Despite its lack of utility in assisting gamblers in choosing the most favourable type of scratch card to play, we hypothesized that unclaimed prize information would bias participants’ judgments within a scratch card gambling context. In Experiment 1 (N?=?201), we showed that participants are influenced by this information such that they felt more likely to win, were more excited to play, and preferred to hypothetically purchase more of the scratch card with the greatest number of unclaimed prizes. In Experiment 2 (N?=?201), we attempted to ameliorate this bias by providing participants with the number of tickets remaining to be purchased and equating the payback percentages of all three games. The bias, although attenuated, still persisted in these conditions. Finally, in Experiment 3 (N?=?200), we manipulated the hypothetical scratch cards such that games with the highest number of unclaimed prizes were the least favourable, and vice versa. As in Experiment 2, participants still favoured cards with greater numbers of unclaimed prizes. Possible mechanisms underlying this bias are discussed. In conclusion, across three experiments, we demonstrate that salient unclaimed prize information is capable of exerting a strong effect over judgments related to scratch card games.     

The Indirect Effect of Child Maltreatment Severity on Adult PTSD Symptoms through Anxiety Sensitivity

Although the rate of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among survivors of child maltreatment is high, individuals differ in symptom severity and many do not experience clinically significant levels of psychopathology. The present study tested the indirect effects of child maltreatment severity on adult PTSD, suicidal ideations, and alcohol dependence via anxiety sensitivity. A sample of 336 participants (mean age of 22.81 years, SD = 8.93; 70.2% female) completed an online survey of child abuse and neglect, anxiety sensitivity, PTSD symptom severity, suicidal ideation severity, and alcohol dependence severity. The results revealed significant indirect effects of child maltreatment on PTSD symptom severity through cognitive and social concerns, but not physical concerns. No direct or indirect effects were demonstrated for suicidal ideations or alcohol dependence severity. These findings elucidate mechanisms in the robust relationship between child maltreatment and adult PTSD symptoms and can potentially inform future research on mechanisms of change in psychotherapy.     

The significance of meaning. Why IPBES needs the social sciences and humanities

The term “biodiversity” is often used to describe phenomena of nature, which can be studied without a reference to the socially constructed, evaluative, or indeed normative contexts. In our paper, we challenge this conception by focusing particularly on methodological aspects of biodiversity research. We thereby engage with the idea of interdisciplinary biodiversity research as a scientific approach directed at the recognition and management of contemporary society in its ecological embedding. By doing this, we explore how research on and assessments of biodiversity can be enhanced if meaning, aspiration, desires, and related aspects of agency are methodically taken into account. In six sections, we substantiate our claim that the discourse on biodiversity (including the IPBES (Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) debate) is incomplete without contributions from the social sciences and humanities. In the introduction, a brief overview of biodiversity’s conceptual history is provided showing that “biodiversity” is a lexical invention intended to create a strong political momentum. However, that does not impede its usability as a research concept. Section 2 examines the origins of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) by way of sociological discourse analysis. Subsequently, it proposes a matrix as a means to structure the ambiguities and tensions inherent in the CBD. The matrix reemphasizes our main thesis regarding the need to bring social and ethical expertise to the biodiversity discourse. In Section 3, we offer a brief sketch of the different methods of the natural and social sciences as well as ethics. This lays the groundwork for our Section 4, which explains and illustrates what social sciences and ethics can contribute to biodiversity research. Section 5 turns from research to politics and argues that biodiversity governance necessitates deliberative discourses in which participation of lay people plays an important role. Section 6 provides our conclusions.     

Gender and social conformity: Do men and women respond differently to social pressure to vote?

In this paper, we re-analyze data from a large-scale field experiment (N = 344,084) on voter turnout in order to determine whether men and women respond differently to social pressure aimed at voter mobilization. To date, there have been mixed results regarding the interaction between a person’s gender and receptivity to social influence. On the whole, our analyses confirm prior findings that social pressure increases voter turnout but uncover little to no evidence of gender differences in receptivity to social pressure cues in the context of political participation.     

The exponentiated reduced Kies distribution: Properties and applications

Here we consider an exponentiated version of the reduced Kies distribution and discuss some of its properties. The parameters of the distribution are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and illustrated with the help of certain real-life data sets. Asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the distribution is also studied by using certain simulated data sets.     

Synthetic double sampling s chart

This study proposes a synthetic double sampling s chart that integrates the double sampling (DS) s chart and the conforming run length chart. An optimization procedure is proposed to compute the optimal parameters of the synthetic DS s chart. The performance of the synthetic DS s chart is compared with other existing control charts for monitoring process standard deviation. The results show that the synthetic DS s chart is more effective for detecting increases in the process standard deviation for a wide range of shifts. An example is provided to illustrate the operation procedure of the synthetic DS s chart.     

The Generalized Conditional Autoregressive Wishart Model for Multivariate Realized Volatility

It is well known that in finance variances and covariances of asset returns move together over time. Recently, much interest has been aroused by an approach involving the use of the realized covariance (RCOV) matrix constructed from high-frequency returns as the ex-post realization of the covariance matrix of low-frequency returns. For the analysis of dynamics of RCOV matrices, we propose the generalized conditional autoregressive Wishart (GCAW) model. Both the noncentrality matrix and scale matrix of the Wishart distribution are driven by the lagged values of RCOV matrices, and represent two different sources of dynamics, respectively. The GCAW is a generalization of the existing models, and accounts for symmetry and positive definiteness of RCOV matrices without imposing any parametric restriction. Some important properties such as conditional moments, unconditional moments, and stationarity are discussed. Empirical examples including sequences of daily RCOV matrices from the New York Stock Exchange illustrate that our model outperforms the existing models in terms of model fitting and forecasting.     

Bivariate,multivariate, and matrix variate normal characterizations: A brief survey II

The paper entitled “Bivariate and Multivariate Normal Characterizations: A Brief Survey,” by Hamedani, which was published in 1992, covered the published characterizations of bivariate and multivariate normal (MVN) distributions from 1941 to 1991. The present work is a follow-up to the 1991/1992 survey which includes not only characterizations of the bivariate and MVN distributions, but also characterizations of the matrix variate normal distribution, which have appeared from 1991/1992 to the present.     

Estimates of subgroup treatment effects in overall nonsignificant trials: To what extent should we believe in them?

In drug development, it sometimes occurs that a new drug does not demonstrate effectiveness for the full study population but appears to be beneficial in a relevant subgroup. In case the subgroup of interest was not part of a confirmatory testing strategy, the inflation of the overall type I error is substantial and therefore such a subgroup analysis finding can only be seen as exploratory at best. To support such exploratory findings, an appropriate replication of the subgroup finding should be undertaken in a new trial. We should, however, be reasonably confident in the observed treatment effect size to be able to use this estimate in a replication trial in the subpopulation of interest. We were therefore interested in evaluating the bias of the estimate of the subgroup treatment effect, after selection based on significance for the subgroup in an overall “failed” trial. Different scenarios, involving continuous as well as dichotomous outcomes, were investigated via simulation studies. It is shown that the bias associated with subgroup findings in overall nonsignificant clinical trials is on average large and varies substantially across plausible scenarios. This renders the subgroup treatment estimate from the original trial of limited value to design the replication trial. An empirical Bayesian shrinkage method is suggested to minimize this overestimation. The proposed estimator appears to offer either a good or a conservative correction to the observed subgroup treatment effect hence provides a more reliable subgroup treatment effect estimate for adequate planning of future studies.