Using geotagged tweets to track population movements to and from Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria

Population and Environment - After a disaster, there is an urgent need for information on population mobility. Our analysis examines the suitability of Twitter data for measuring post-disaster...     

Reduction in Dietary Acrylamide Exposure—Impact of Potatoes with Low Acrylamide Potential

Acrylamide forms primarily from a reaction between reducing sugars (e.g., glucose and fructose) and an amino acid (asparagine, Asn) formed naturally in foods, including potatoes. This reaction occurs when carbohydrate‐rich foods are heated at temperatures above 120 °C. Multiple potato varieties were transformed with potato genomic DNA that results in down‐regulation of the expression of the asparagine synthetase‐1 gene (Asn1), significantly reducing synthesis of free Asn, and consequently lowering the potential to form acrylamide during cooking. These potatoes with low acrylamide potential (LAP) were tested in agronomic trials, and processed into French fries and potato chips. Decreased levels of acrylamide were measured in these cooked food products when derived from LAP potatoes compared with those derived from conventional potatoes. These reductions can be directly attributed to reduction in Asn levels in the LAP potatoes. The corresponding average reduction in exposure to acrylamide from French fry and potato chip consumption is estimated to be 65%, which would amount to approximately a 25% reduction in overall dietary exposure. Considering that children consume nearly three times more acrylamide than adults on a per kg body weight basis, they would experience the most impact from the reduced acrylamide associated with LAP potatoes. The potential public health impacts, in context of dietary acrylamide exposure reduction, are discussed in this study.     

Beyond Planning:: Strategies for Successfully Implementing Strategic Decisions

This article brings strategy back to managers and their organizations. It argues and demonstrates empirically that what managers do, and the kind of organization they lead, matter in terms of achieving stated objectives. Managerial action involves a set of activities from assessing the problem to prioritising action, and takes place within an organizational context which has two important elements for decision-making. First, organizations have an accumulated stock of experience, and the more managers can access and utilise this experience base the better. Secondly, the culture and structure of an organization may exhibit more or less readiness for the changes that decisions bring about, and contexts less ready for change pose problems for managers in the implementation of decisions.This long-term study of 55 decisions in UK firms shows that careful managerial planning does not of itself guarantee successful outcomes: the organizational context is crucial in framing actions and influencing achievement, and decisions may send a firm on a trajectory beyond the point at which it can plan with confidence. Where experience and readiness are strong, decisions achieve stated objectives—where both are lacking, decisions tend to fail. But, as examination of two illustrative cases indicates, strength in either domain may be enough: sound experience may win out in comparatively unreceptive situations, and decisions may still succeed where experience is lacking but the organization is ready for change. The article closes with some implications for managers.     

Dynamic Assignment of Flexible Service Resources

Resource flexibility is an important tool for firms to better match capacity with demand so as to increase revenues and improve service levels. However, in service contexts that require dynamically deciding whether to accept incoming jobs and what resource to assign to each accepted job, harnessing the benefits of flexibility requires using effective methods for making these operational decisions. Motivated by the resource deployment decisions facing a professional service firm in the workplace training industry, we address the dynamic job acceptance and resource assignment problem for systems with general resource flexibility structure, i.e., with multiple resource types that can each perform different overlapping subsets of job types. We first show that, for systems containing specialized resources for individual job types and a versatile resource type that can perform all job types, the exact policy uses a threshold rule. With more general flexibility structures, since the associated stochastic dynamic program is intractable, we develop and test three optimization‐based approximate policies. Our extensive computational tests show that one of the methods, which we call the Bottleneck Capacity Reservation policy, is remarkably effective in generating near‐optimal solutions over a wide range of problem scenarios. We also consider a model variant that requires dynamic job acceptance decisions but permits deferring resource assignment decisions until the end of the horizon. For this model, we discuss an adaptation of our approximate policy, establish the effectiveness of this policy, and assess the value of postponing assignment decisions.     

Practical Methods for Meeting Remediation Goals at Hazardous Waste Sites

Risk-based cleanup goals or preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) are established at hazardous waste sites when contaminant concentrations in air, soil, surface water, or groundwater exceed specified acceptable risk levels. When derived in accordance with the Environmental Protection Agency's risk assessment guidance, the PRG is intended to represent the average contaminant concentration within an exposure unit area that is left on the site following remediation. The PRG, however, frequently has been used inconsistently at Superfund sites with a number of remediation decisions using the PRG as a not-to-exceed concentration (NTEC). Such misapplications could result in overly conservative and unnecessarily costly remedial actions. The PRG should be applied in remedial actions in the same manner in which it was generated. Statistical methods, such as Bower's Confidence Response Goal, and mathematical methods such as "iterative removal of hot spots," are available to assist in the development of NTECs that ensure the average postremediation contaminant concentration is at or below the PRG. These NTECs can provide the risk manager with a more practical cleanup goal. In addition, an acute PRG can be developed to ensure that contaminant concentrations left on-site following remediation are not so high as to pose an acute or short-term health risk if excessive exposure to small areas of the site should occur. A case study demonstrates cost savings of five to ten times associated with the more scientifically sound use of the PRG as a postremediation site average, and development of a separate NTEC and acute PRG based on the methods referenced in this article.     

The Media and Genetically Modified Foods: Evidence in Support of Social Amplification of Risk

Empirical examinations of the "social amplification of risk" framework are rare, partly because of the difficulties in predicting when conditions likely to result in amplification effects will occur. This means that it is difficult to examine changes in risk perception that are contemporaneous with increases and/or decreases in social or media discussion of the risks associated with a particular risk event. However, the collection of attitude data before, during, and after the increased reporting of the risks of genetically modified food in the United Kingdom (spring 1999) has demonstrated that people's risk perceptions do increase and decrease in line with what might be expected upon examination of the amplification and attenuation mechanisms integral to the framework. Perceptions of benefit, however, appeared to be permanently depressed by negative reporting about genetically modified food. Trust in regulatory institutions with responsibility for protecting the public was not affected. It was concluded that the social amplification of risk framework is a useful framework for beginning to explain the potential impact on risk perceptions of a risk event, particularly if that risk event is presented to the public as a new hazard occurring in a crisis context.     

Identification of Standard Auction Models

This paper presents new identification results for models of first–price, second–price, ascending (English), and descending (Dutch) auctions. We consider a general specification of the latent demand and information structure, nesting both private values and common values models, and allowing correlated types as well as ex ante asymmetry. We address identification of a series of nested models and derive testable restrictions enabling discrimination between models on the basis of observed data. The simplest model—symmetric independent private values—is nonparametrically identified even if only the transaction price from each auction is observed. For richer models, identification and testable restrictions may be obtained when additional information of one or more of the following types is available: (i) the identity of the winning bidder or other bidders; (ii) one or more bids in addition to the transaction price; (iii) exogenous variation in the number of bidders; (iv) bidder–specific covariates. While many private values (PV) models are nonparametrically identified and testable with commonly available data, identification of common values (CV) models requires stringent assumptions. Nonetheless, the PV model can be tested against the CV alternative, even when neither model is identified.