Migration Patterns and Remittance Transfer in Nepal: A Case Study of Sainik Basti in Western Nepal

International labour migration is a main livelihood strategy for many people in Nepal. This article analyses the migration process from the perspective of migrants and their non‐migrating household members, exploring the institutional regulations that structure the organization of migration and the cash flows involved. The results are based on a case study conducted in Sainik Basti, Western Nepal, in 2002. The article shows that for different destinations there are specific ways of organizing migration. These country specific ways of organizing migration demand specific assets from prospective migrants and their household members and, therefore, influence their choice of destination. Savings are remitted back home mainly by carrying them personally or by using the hundi system. In spite of the risks and difficulties involved, international labour migration often contributes to sustainable livelihoods. The main outcomes of migration are increased financial capital, education of the children, migration‐specific knowledge, and increased social capital. This enlarged asset endowment lowers both investment costs and risks involved in migration, and thereby increases its potential net return. Each act of migration, therefore, facilitates and stimulates subsequent migration.¹     

Multiparameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision-making: current approaches

Summary.  Alongside the development of meta-analysis as a tool for summarizing research literature, there is renewed interest in broader forms of quantitative synthesis that are aimed at combining evidence from different study designs or evidence on multiple parameters. These have been proposed under various headings: the confidence profile method, cross-design synthesis, hierarchical models and generalized evidence synthesis. Models that are used in health technology assessment are also referred to as representing a synthesis of evidence in a mathematical structure. Here we review alternative approaches to statistical evidence synthesis, and their implications for epidemiology and medical decision-making. The methods include hierarchical models, models informed by evidence on different functions of several parameters and models incorporating both of these features. The need to check for consistency of evidence when using these powerful methods is emphasized. We develop a rationale for evidence synthesis that is based on Bayesian decision modelling and expected value of information theory, which stresses not only the need for a lack of bias in estimates of treatment effects but also a lack of bias in assessments of uncertainty. The increasing reliance of governmental bodies like the UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence on complex evidence synthesis in decision modelling is discussed.     

ALL-BIAS DESIGNS FOR POLYNOMIAL SPLINE REGRESSION MODELS

Polynomial spline regression models of low degree have proved useful in modeling responses from designed experiments in science and engineering when simple polynomial models are inadequate. Where there is uncertainty in the number and location of the knots, or breakpoints, of the spline, then designs that minimize the systematic errors resulting from model misspecification may be appropriate. This paper gives a method for constructing such all‐bias designs for a single variable spline when the distinct knots in the assumed and true models come from some specified set. A class of designs is defined in terms of the inter‐knot intervals and sufficient conditions are obtained for a design within this class to be all‐bias under linear, quadratic and cubic spline models. An example of the construction of all‐bias designs is given.     

LOG-PERIODOGRAM ESTIMATION OF LONG MEMORY VOLATILITY DEPENDENCIES WITH CONDITIONALLY HEAVY TAILED RETURNS

Many recent papers have used semiparametric methods, especially the log-periodogram regression, to detect and estimate long memory in the volatility of asset returns. In these papers, the volatility is proxied by measures such as squared, log-squared, and absolute returns. While the evidence for the existence of long memory is strong using any of these measures, the actual long memory parameter estimates can be sensitive to which measure is used. In Monte-Carlo simulations, I find that if the data is conditionally leptokurtic, the log-periodogram regression estimator using squared returns has a large downward bias, which is avoided by using other volatility measures. In United States stock return data, I find that squared returns give much lower estimates of the long memory parameter than the alternative volatility measures, which is consistent with the simulation results. I conclude that researchers should avoid using the squared returns in the semiparametric estimation of long memory volatility dependencies.     

Studying the Effects of the Audience on Verbal Behavior

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior -     

Gender and the 'New Paradigm' of Health

This article provides a critical review of literature on the relationship between gender and the 'new paradigm' of health. An overview of the feminist critique of health is given, from the Women's Health Movement of the late 1960s and early feminist debates about medicalisation, to more recent discussions about structural inequalities between men and women, eating disorders, and AIDS. I then go on to explore the feminist response to the so-called 'new paradigm' of health (an approach that emphasises health promotion, individual responsibility for health, and body-monitoring). Arguments that health promotion initiatives target women and confirm their position as principal guardians of health within the family are considered, as well as literature on the breast cancer awareness campaign. I then explore the growing body of literature on masculinity and health, and its account of the relationship between gender and current ideas about healthiness. Finally, I offer up some suggestions for the direction a new feminist critique of health might take.     

Risk Compensation or Risk Reduction? Seatbelts,State Laws,and Traffic Fatalities*

Objective. The risk compensation hypothesis suggests that drivers enjoying greater safety will drive more recklessly and thereby impose greater risks on nonoccupants. We provide a test of the risk compensation hypothesis in the context of state seatbelt laws and belt use rates. Methods. Fixed‐effects models with policy and demographic variables are estimated using annual state data from 1985 to 2002 to test the effect of seatbelt laws and seatbelt use rates on logged fatality rates for occupants, pedestrians, motorcyclists, and all nonoccupants in separate models. Results. Contrary to the risk compensation hypothesis, the results indicate that both occupants and nonoccupants enjoy greater safety due to state mandatory use laws and increased safety belt use rates. Conclusion. Overall, seatbelt laws and the higher belt use these laws induce do not increase nonoccupant risk exposure. If anything, these laws and the accompanying increase in belt use result in safer driving behavior.     

Intersensory Redundancy Enhances Memory in Bobwhite Quail Embryos

Information presented concurrently and redundantly to 2 or more senses (intersensory redundancy) has been shown to recruit attention and promote perceptual learning of amodal stimulus properties in animal embryos and human infants. This study examined whether the facilitative effect of intersensory redundancy also extends to the domain of memory. We assessed bobwhite quail chicks' ability to remember and prefer an individual maternal call presented either unimodally or redundantly and synchronously with patterned light during the period prior to hatching. Embryos provided with unimodal auditory exposure failed to prefer the familiar call over a novel maternal call postnatally at 48 hr and 72 hr following exposure. In contrast, embryos provided with redundant, synchronous audiovisual stimulation significantly preferred the familiar call at 48 hr following exposure, but not at 72 hr. A second experiment provided chicks with a single 10‐min refamiliarization with the familiar call at either 48 hr or 72 hr following hatching. Chicks given only unimodal auditory exposure prior to hatching did not appear to benefit from this brief postnatal refamiliarization, showing no preference for the familiar call at either 72 or 96 hr. Chicks that received redundant audiovisual stimulation prenatally showed a significant preference for the familiar call (following the brief reexpo sure 24 hr earlier) at both 72 and 96 hr of age. These results are the first to demonstrate that redundantly specified information is remembered longer and reactivated more easily than the same information presented unimodally. These findings provide further evidence of the salience of intersensory redundancy in guiding selective attention and perceptual learning during early development.