Zur Auswirkung von Endlichkeitskorrekturen bei der Analyse einfacher Zufallsstichproben

In statistical inference one usual assumption is, that data relates to a set of independent identically distributed random variables. From the viewpoint of sampling theory this assumption is only satisfied, if we draw a simple random sample with replacement or the population size is infinite. Then it is not necessary to consider a finite population correction when calculating the variance of a given estimator. To examine the effect of simple random sampling without replacement on the above assumption, the exact variances are calculated in the cases of mean value and variance estimation. This may give us information whether finite population correction is neglible or not.     

The probabilistic analysis of testimony

The probabilistic analysis of testimony is surveyed. The coverage is not comprehensive; attention is focused on several problems of particular interest or complexity. The theory often contains implicit assumptions, and some attempt is made to clarify the role these play. The theory originally arose in an attempt to understand the logic of belief. It was not empirically grounded, however, and later died out in the 19th century when its conclusions became largely self-evident, and its non-empirical background suspect.     

Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

AIDS funding and the rhetoric of scarcity

This article describes the “rhetoric of scarcity,” a viewpoint that focuses on the inadequate past support for and the uncertain future of AIDS funding. This view is at variance with the consistent rise in financial support for AIDS and with the criticism from some quarters that AIDS is being overfunded relative to other diseases. The rhetoric of scarcity expressed by members of the AIDS community is distinctive but not unique to HIV/AIDS and can be traced to qualities of the epidemic and the ways in which nonprofit organizations obtain their funds.