Family Check Up effects on adolescent arrest trajectories: Variation by developmental subtype

This study examines the effect of the Family Check Up intervention on the probability of arrests from ages 12 to 17 years for youth following heterogeneous developmental trajectories of antisocial behavior. Latent Growth Mixture Modeling results supported the presence of three developmental trajectories of arrests, including a large group of youth with few police contacts, a smaller group of youth showing early onset and chronic arrests, and a group with adolescent-onset arrests. In line with hypotheses, effects of intervention were seen within the adolescent-onset group, but not in the early onset chronic arrest trajectory group, or those youth with little police contact. The trajectory groups were differentiated by peer, family, behavioral and academic risk variables at age 11.     

Comparison of Bayesian sample size criteria: ACC, ALC, and WOC

A challenge for implementing performance-based Bayesian sample size determination is selecting which of several methods to use. We compare three Bayesian sample size criteria: the average coverage criterion (ACC) which controls the coverage rate of fixed length credible intervals over the predictive distribution of the data, the average length criterion (ALC) which controls the length of credible intervals with a fixed coverage rate, and the worst outcome criterion (WOC) which ensures the desired coverage rate and interval length over all (or a subset of) possible datasets. For most models, the WOC produces the largest sample size among the three criteria, and sample sizes obtained by the ACC and the ALC are not the same. For Bayesian sample size determination for normal means and differences between normal means, we investigate, for the first time, the direction and magnitude of differences between the ACC and ALC sample sizes. For fixed hyperparameter values, we show that the difference of the ACC and ALC sample size depends on the nominal coverage, and not on the nominal interval length. There exists a threshold value of the nominal coverage level such that below the threshold the ALC sample size is larger than the ACC sample size, and above the threshold the ACC sample size is larger. Furthermore, the ACC sample size is more sensitive to changes in the nominal coverage. We also show that for fixed hyperparameter values, there exists an asymptotic constant ratio between the WOC sample size and the ALC (ACC) sample size. Simulation studies are conducted to show that similar relationships among the ACC, ALC, and WOC may hold for estimating binomial proportions. We provide a heuristic argument that the results can be generalized to a larger class of models.     

Economy “versus” Environment: The Influence of Economic Ideology and Political Identity on Perceived Threat of Eco‐Catastrophe

Using data from a national survey of American adults, we examine the relationships between economic, political, sociodemographic, and religious characteristics with perception of the potential for eco‐catastrophe. We employ the treadmill of production theory to frame our understanding of views about ecological concerns, arguing that the treadmill discourse associated with economic development is hegemonic and fundamentally shapes public views of eco‐catastrophe. In line with this approach, economic ideology is the strongest predictor of attitudes about eco‐catastrophe, and its influence is conditioned by political identity. There is also significant patterning in these perceptions based on gender, race, education, and religion, but the influence of social characteristics is primarily indirect—mediated by economic ideology and political identity. These results provide useful information for addressing environmental problems in public discourse and bridging policy divides.     

Immigrant Entrepreneurs: The Identification of Foreign Market Opportunities

Building on the very few studies that examine how immigrant entrepreneurs identify opportunities to conduct business in foreign markets, this article explores how Italian immigrant entrepreneurs in Australia identify such opportunities. Relying on social network theory (Patel and Conklin, 2009), international business research indicates that social ties, including kinship and ethnic ties, facilitate the flow of information that enables entrepreneurs to identify opportunities (Ellis, 2011; Hayton, Chandler and DeTienne, 2011). This study finds that the Italian immigrant entrepreneurs prefer to receive information about business opportunities from trusting, social ties, particularly country of origin (Italy) regional based ethnic ties, rather kinship ties for fear of damaging the relationship. However both first and second generation immigrants do use kinship ties to gain knowledge about Italian market conditions. Implications for policy and practice, limitations of the study and ideas for future research are also presented.     

Two Decades of Stability and Change in Age at First Union Formation

The landscape of union formation has been shifting; Americans are now marrying at the highest ages on record and the majority of young adults have cohabited. Yet little attention has been paid to the timing of cohabitation relative to marriage. Using the National Survey of Families and Households and 4 cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth, the authors examined the timing of marriage, cohabitation, and unions over 20 years. As the median age at first marriage has climbed, the age at cohabitation has remained stable for men and women. The changes in the timing of union formation have been similar according to race/ethnicity. The marked delay in marriage among women and men with low educational attainment has resulted in a near‐convergence in the age at first marriage according to education. The authors conclude that the rise in cohabitation has offset changes in the levels and timing of marriage     

Selection-Based Instruction and the Emergence of Topography-Based Responses to Interview Questions

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior -     

Third Sector Social Policy Research in Australia: New Actors,New Politics

Human service NGOs have become central actors in contemporary welfare states. The broadening of the role of NGOs in Australia as both providers of the human services that are an integral part of the welfare state and as lobbyists or advocates and agents of social change has been widely acknowledged; however, this paper focuses on a recent deepening of the role of human service NGOs in the Australian welfare state by exploring an additional dimension of their growth. Based on a recent study, it is evident that there has been increasing involvement by human service NGOs in the production of social policy knowledge through ‘policy research’ activities. The research mapped policy research activities, policy research infrastructure and policy research resources in human service NGOs, and also captured NGO policy researchers’ perceptions of the rationales and motivations driving NGOs in this direction. It was clear that this shift is based on strong beliefs that researchers located within human service agencies are best placed to produce the kind of knowledge that should form the basis of social policies responding to human need. Other drivers identified by policy researchers suggest, however, that the inclusion of third sector organizations in policy processes cannot simply be understood as the ‘opening up’ or ‘democratization’ of social policy processes to include Third Sector participants. The motivations for human service NGOs moving into social policy knowledge production in Australia are thus complex and diverse. Drawing on the findings of our study, Researching the Researchers, this paper reflects on the implications of this reconfiguration of welfare state politics. Who produces the knowledge that influences, moulds, and even determines the allocation of resources for the delivery of human services, and how this knowledge is produced have been ongoing concerns in social policy scholarship. We suggest, that in the case of human service NGOs in Australia, entry into the field of social policy research can be understood as a reconfiguring of the democratic system of policy determination. It may also be one in which the NGOs become ‘experts’ on citizens’ needs through research practices that are fundamentally less, rather than more inclusive, of the subjects of social policy. The implications of a possible shift in power to influence and in some cases determine who gets what in the welfare state is of deep concern in relation to future models of social protection and ultimately the redistributive and democratic processes of nation states. This paper seeks to question the often-unquestioned ascendancy of the third sector in welfare and asks whether this shift is in keeping with the democratic process and whether it is the best way to determine and satisfy human need.     

Female Part‐Time Managers: Careers,Mentors and Role Models

This paper explores the careers of 27 women employed as part‐time managers in a range of UK public, private and not‐for‐profit sector organizations. Drawing upon semi‐structured interviews, the article briefly summarizes the career trajectories of these women, prior to and after a transition to part‐time working, before exploring whether and how career progression is linked to the support of role models and mentors. The part‐time managers in this sample held varied careers while working full‐time, but careers often stalled following a transition to part‐time work. Given research has identified role models and mentors as having a positive impact upon career progression, this paper explores the existence of role models and mentors within the sample of female part‐time managers. While the majority of interviewees identified role models, just over half identified these as negative role models who did little to champion part‐time working. Drawing upon Gibson's ‘positive/negative’ role model dimensions, we argue the likelihood of identifying positive and negative role models alters when an analysis takes account of gender and working hours. Few interviewees identified mentors: just four women spoke of being mentored currently, though ten others identified being mentored in the past. We argue this lack of mentors and the identification of negative role models, the majority of whom were women, exacerbates the already precarious position of these female part‐time managers. The paper concludes by commenting on the lack of support for female part‐time managers, and the paucity of influential people working part‐time in organizations, despite the rapid growth of part‐time work in the UK over the past four decades.