Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation

This paper formulates and estimates multistage production functions for children's cognitive and noncognitive skills. Skills are determined by parental environments and investments at different stages of childhood. We estimate the elasticity of substitution between investments in one period and stocks of skills in that period to assess the benefits of early investment in children compared to later remediation. We establish nonparametric identification of a general class of production technologies based on nonlinear factor models with endogenous inputs. A by‐product of our approach is a framework for evaluating childhood and schooling interventions that does not rely on arbitrarily scaled test scores as outputs and recognizes the differential effects of the same bundle of skills in different tasks. Using the estimated technology, we determine optimal targeting of interventions to children with different parental and personal birth endowments. Substitutability decreases in later stages of the life cycle in the production of cognitive skills. It is roughly constant across stages of the life cycle in the production of noncognitive skills. This finding has important implications for the design of policies that target the disadvantaged. For most configurations of disadvantage it is optimal to invest relatively more in the early stages of childhood than in later stages.     

A mixture of beta–Dirichlet processes prior for Bayesian analysis of event history data

In this paper, we propose a mixture of beta–Dirichlet processes as a nonparametric prior for the cumulative intensity functions of a Markov process. This family of priors is a natural extension of a mixture of Dirichlet processes or a mixture of beta processes which are devised to compromise advantages of parametric and nonparametric approaches. They give most of their prior mass to the small neighborhood of a specific parametric model. We show that a mixture of beta–Dirichlet processes prior is conjugate with Markov processes. Formulas for computing the posterior distribution are derived. Finally, results of analyzing credit history data are given.     

Job satisfaction and mental health of temporary agency workers in Europe: a systematic review and research agenda

ABSTRACT

The current systematic literature review aimed to analyse the associations between temporary agency work (TAW), job satisfaction, and mental health in Europe, as well as to outline a future research agenda. Twenty-eight scientific articles were identified by searching different data bases (i.e. PSYNDEX, PsycINFO, PubMed, and Web of Science) for the time span from January 2000 to December 2016. Our review reveals first that TAW is not consistently negatively related to job satisfaction. However, job insecurity and working conditions are important mediators in the relation of TAW and lowered job satisfaction. Second, TAW is not consistently related to all investigated types of mental health impairments. However, when focusing on specific outcomes and comparing temporary agency workers to permanent employees, we still find consistent evidence regarding higher levels of depression and fatigue among temporary agency workers. Inconsistent associations between TAW, job satisfaction and mental health can partly be attributed to unfavourable methodological aspects of the included primary studies. To address these aspects, future research should consider applying a standard measurement of TAW, including a minimum of meaningful confounding variables, improving the operationalisation of outcome variables and the study design.     

Photographs of disasters. An ethnomethodological approach

The essay analyses the photographs produced and circulated during the March 2011 tsunami and earthquake disaster in Japan, which show destroyed buildings, flooded landscapes, desperate people. Disaster destroys existing order. On first sight, the photographs of disaster depict this dissolution of order. The empirical analysis shows that the disastrousness of disaster is (also) created through the pictures of the disasters. The paper discusses why and in what way certain pictures reveal themselves to be iconographic of disaster and how they enter the visual memory as its representative. To achieve this, the study will invoke ethnomethodology. At the centre of the analysis is the question of the particular means with which these images illustrate the destructive force of the disasters and how pictures showing destruction and pain (‘pictures of pain’) turn into pictures effecting pain in the viewer (‘painful pictures’). The empirical study demonstrates: the photographs show the destruction of order; however, they do this in an orderly manner.

for Jörg Bergmann’s 70th birthday     

Human mobility in the context of environmental and climate change: Recent data collection tools from the International Organization for Migration to address key methodological and conceptual issues

This paper outlines recent data collection tools and methodologies that the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has been using in order to gather information on human mobility as influenced by environmental factors and their impacts. It looks at alternative ways for collecting and analysing data in the face of methodological challenges related to the multicausality of movements, the voluntary/involuntary continuum in human (im)mobility decisions in the context of environmental and climate change, and the policy and epistemological imperative from viewing migration as an adaptation strategy. The paper finds that certain data collection approaches can be quickly deployed in rapid-onset disasters as well as applied in contexts of gradual, slow-onset environmental change to provide information useful for operational responses to immediate crises and/or for developing policies in response. Some of the tools can be useful in both contexts and may support both immediate and long-term operational, policy and research objectives.     

Detecting mean increases in Poisson INAR(1) processes with EWMA control charts

Processes of serially dependent Poisson counts are commonly observed in real-world applications and can often be modeled by the first-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) model. For detecting positive shifts in the mean of a Poisson INAR(1) process, we propose the one-sided s exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart, which is based on a new type of rounding operation. The s-EWMA chart allows computing average run length (ARLs) exactly and efficiently with a Markov chain approach. Using an implementation of this procedure for ARL computation, the s-EWMA chart is easily designed, which is demonstrated with a real-data example. Based on an extensive study of ARLs, the out-of-control performance of the chart is analyzed and compared with that of a c chart and a one-sided cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart. We also investigate the robustness of the chart against departures from the assumed Poisson marginal distribution.     

Resistance as a means of creating accountability in child welfare institutions

This paper investigates the identity constructions of youths who are objects of special interventions in the area of child welfare. The aim of the paper was to explore the various dimensions of resistance to institutional identities among youths in special schools and foster‐care institutions. Interviews were conducted with adolescents aged between 12 and 15, identified as having social, emotional and behavioural difficulties. The analysis generates knowledge about society's interventions as well as how adolescents respond to offered institutional identities by adopting different kinds of discursive resistance. The paper highlights the different types of discursive resistance that adolescents use to present themselves as accountable individuals and discusses the importance of considering resistance as a positive force rather than as something that must be defeated.     

Comparison of multiple imputation and two-phase logistic regression to analyse two-phase case–control studies with rich phase 1: a simulation study

Two-phase case–control studies cope with the problem of confounding by obtaining required additional information for a subset (phase 2) of all individuals (phase 1). Nowadays, studies with rich phase 1 data are available where only few unmeasured confounders need to be obtained in phase 2. The extended conditional maximum likelihood (ECML) approach in two-phase logistic regression is a novel method to analyse such data. Alternatively, two-phase case–control studies can be analysed by multiple imputation (MI), where phase 2 information for individuals included in phase 1 is treated as missing. We conducted a simulation of two-phase studies, where we compared the performance of ECML and MI in typical scenarios with rich phase 1. Regarding exposure effect, MI was less biased and more precise than ECML. Furthermore, ECML was sensitive against misspecification of the participation model. We therefore recommend MI to analyse two-phase case–control studies in situations with rich phase 1 data.     

Körper-Kunst in der Kinderklinik – ein interdisziplinäres Projekt zwischen Pädiatrie, Tanztheater und Psychosomatik

On the basis of the deconstructive idea of dance as a means to experience inner coherences as well as dehiscences within the body, an interdisciplinary project between psychosomatic medicine, pediatrics and dance is outlined. Social processes between dancers, adolescents and trainer within a single clinically more in detail described workshop are presented and related to the situation of chronically ill children. Hereby, a reintegration of the rejected and negatively charged body in chronic conditions is initialized.