A course in constructing effective displays of data for pharmaceutical research personnel

Interpreting data and communicating effectively through graphs and tables are requisite skills for statisticians and non‐statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry. However, the quality of visual displays of data in the medical and pharmaceutical literature and at scientific conferences is severely lacking. We describe an interactive, workshop‐driven, 2‐day short course that we constructed for pharmaceutical research personnel to learn these skills. The examples in the course and the workshop datasets source from our professional experiences, the scientific literature, and the mass media. During the course, the participants are exposed to and gain hands‐on experience with the principles of visual and graphical perception, design, and construction of both graphic and tabular displays of quantitative and qualitative information. After completing the course, with a critical eye, the participants are able to construct, revise, critique, and interpret graphic and tabular displays according to an extensive set of guidelines. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding increments in model performance metrics

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is the most commonly reported measure of discrimination for prediction models with binary outcomes. However, recently it has been criticized for its inability to increase when important risk factors are added to a baseline model with good discrimination. This has led to the claim that the reliance on the AUC as a measure of discrimination may miss important improvements in clinical performance of risk prediction rules derived from a baseline model. In this paper we investigate this claim by relating the AUC to measures of clinical performance based on sensitivity and specificity under the assumption of multivariate normality. The behavior of the AUC is contrasted with that of discrimination slope. We show that unless rules with very good specificity are desired, the change in the AUC does an adequate job as a predictor of the change in measures of clinical performance. However, stronger or more numerous predictors are needed to achieve the same increment in the AUC for baseline models with good versus poor discrimination. When excellent specificity is desired, our results suggest that the discrimination slope might be a better measure of model improvement than AUC. The theoretical results are illustrated using a Framingham Heart Study example of a model for predicting the 10-year incidence of atrial fibrillation.     

Central Limit Theorem approximations for the number of runs in Markov-dependent binary sequences

We consider Markov-dependent binary sequences and study various types of success runs (overlapping, non-overlapping, exact, etc.) by examining additive functionals based on state visits and transitions in an appropriate Markov chain. We establish a multivariate Central Limit Theorem for the number of these types of runs and obtain its covariance matrix by means of the recurrent potential matrix of the Markov chain. Explicit expressions for the covariance matrix are given in the Bernoulli and a simple Markov-dependent case by expressing the recurrent potential matrix in terms of the stationary distribution and the mean transition times in the chain. We also obtain a multivariate Central Limit Theorem for the joint number of non-overlapping runs of various sizes and give its covariance matrix in explicit form for Markov dependent trials.     

Culinary Magazines

Abstract

Marvel Comics, along with rival DC Comics, is one of the two powerhouses of the comic book industry and has been for many decades. The company was founded in 1939 by pulp magazine publisher Martin Goodman. Goodman owned various publishing houses responsible for a variety of pulp titles, including Marvel Science Stories. In 1939, a colleague persuaded Goodman that comic books were the upcoming trend in periodical publishing, so Good-man launched a book called Marvel Comics. Issue no. 1 contained a story by Bill Everett about the Sub-Mariner, as well as the first appearance of the Human Torch. Both characters quickly became leading draws of the Golden Age of comics. Soon after, Goodman hired writer Joe Simon and artist Jack Kirby, who were to become giants in the industry. Simon and Kirby created Captain America, a character who remains a comics icon even today. In those early days, Goodman also hired another future legend: writer Stan Lee, who happened to be Good-man's nephew.

Goodman's comic company was known officially as Timely Comics, Inc., then later as Atlas Publishing. The firm did not change its name to Marvel until the early 1960s. Timely benefitted from the comics boom of the early 1940s, but interest in super-hero stories waned later in the decade. Atlas briefly revived its super-hero line-up in 1954, but the company spent most of the next decade publishing romance, western, horror, and humor comics.1 1. Les Daniels, Marvel: Five Decades of the World's Greatest Comics (NY: Abrams, 1991), pp. 17–23, 26–36, 40–61.¹     

Classes of diffusion-type processes with a sufficient reduction

Classes of processes of the diffusion type permitting a sufficient data reduction are derived. None of these classes are exponential families in the usual sense. For one type of such classes the sufficient statistic equals that of a curved exponential family of diffusion-type processes. For a second type the last observation is sufficient. In particular cases both types of classes are defined by means of a RICCATI equation     

A Simulation Study of Predicting Flush Date

For Canada's boreal forest region, the accurate modelling of the timing of the appearance of aspen leaves is important to forest fire management, as it signifies the end of the spring fire season that occurs after snowmelt. This article compares two methods, a midpoint rule and a conditional expectation method used to estimate the true flush date for interval-censored data from a large set of fire-weather stations in Alberta, Canada. The conditional expectation method uses the interval censored kernel density estimator of Braun et al. (2005 Braun , J. , Duchesne , T. , Stafford , J. E. ( 2005 ). Local likelihood density estimation for interval censored data . Canadian Journal of Statistics 33 : 39 – 60 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The methods are compared via simulation, where true flush dates were generated from a normal distribution and then converted into intervals by adding and subtracting exponential random variables. The simulation parameters were estimated from the data set and several scenarios were considered. The study reveals that the conditional expectation method is never worse than the midpoint method, and that there is a significant advantage to this method when the intervals are large. An illustration of the methodology applied to the Alberta data set is also provided.     

A Multivariate Synthetic Control Chart for Monitoring the Process Mean Vector of Skewed Populations Using Weighted Standard Deviations

This article proposes a multivariate synthetic control chart for skewed populations based on the weighted standard deviation method. The proposed chart incorporates the weighted standard deviation method into the standard multivariate synthetic control chart. The standard multivariate synthetic chart consists of the Hotelling's T ² chart and the conforming run length chart. The weighted standard deviation method adjusts the variance–covariance matrix of the quality characteristics and approximates the probability density function using several multivariate normal distributions. The proposed chart reduces to the standard multivariate synthetic chart when the underlying distribution is symmetric. In general, the simulation results show that the proposed chart performs better than the existing multivariate charts for skewed populations and the standard T ² chart, in terms of false alarm rates as well as moderate and large mean shift detection rates based on the various degrees of skewnesses.     

Systematic Effects of Capital Service Price Definition on Perceptions of Input Substitution

Earlier attempts at reconciling disparate substitution elasticity estimates examined differences in separability hypotheses, data bases, and estimation techniques, as well as methods employed to construct capital service prices. Although these studies showed that differences in elasticity estimates between two or three studies may be attributable to the aforementioned features of the econometric models, they have been unable to demonstrate this link statistically and establish the existence of systematic relationships between features of the econometric models and the perception of production technologies generated by those models. Using sectoral data covering the entire production side of the U.S. economy, we estimate 34 production models for alternative definitions of the capital service price. We employ substitution elasticities calculated from these models as dependent variables in the statistical search for systematic relationships between features of the econometric models and perceptions of the sectoral technology as characterized by the elasticities. Statistically significant systematic effects are found between the monotonicity and concavity properties of the cost functions and service price–technical change specifications as well as between substitution elasticities.