Mixture inverse Gaussian for unobserved heterogeneity in the autoregressive conditional duration model

In this paper, we assume that the duration of a process has two different intrinsic components or phases which are independent. The first is the time it takes for a trade to be initiated in the market (for example, the time during which agents obtain knowledge about the market in which they are operating and accumulate information, which is coherent with Brownian motion) and the second is the subsequent time required for the trade to develop into a complete duration. Of course, if the first time is zero then the trade is initiated immediately and no initial knowledge is required. If we assume a specific compound Bernoulli distribution for the first time and an inverse Gaussian distribution for the second, the resulting convolution model has a mixture of an inverse Gaussian distribution with its reciprocal, which allows us to specify and test the unobserved heterogeneity in the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model.

Our proposals make it possible not only to capture various density shapes of the durations but also easily to accommodate the behaviour of the tail of the distribution and the non monotonic hazard function. The proposed model is easy to fit and characterizes the behaviour of the conditional durations reasonably well in terms of statistical criteria based on point and density forecasts.     

Elements of cultural competence in an Australian Aboriginal maternity program

Background

Pregnancy, labour and neonatal health outcomes for Australian Aboriginal women and their infants are frequently worse than those of the general population. Provision of culturally competent services may reduce these differences by improving access to timely and regular antenatal care. In an effort to address these issues, the Aboriginal Maternity Group Practice Program commenced in south metropolitan Perth, Western Australia, in 2011. The program employed Aboriginal Grandmothers, Aboriginal Health Officers and midwives working in a partnership model with pre-existing maternity services in the area.

Is demography destiny? The role of structural and demographic factors in Australis past and future labour supply

Following the release of the Intergenerational Report, the Australian Treasury identified the levers to address the economic effects of demographic ageing as ‘the three Ps’: population, participation and productivity. To date, the first ‘P’, population, has been treated as an exogenous factor, with the common view being that there is very little that the government can do to supplant demographic ageing. Focusing upon labour supply, this paper shows how variation in Australia’s underlying demography can significantly alter Australia’s future labour supply. Although governments cannot redirect the cohort flow component of population ageing, much can be achieved in promoting growth of the labour supply by maintaining or increasing fertility (in the longer term), or increasing targeted migration (in the short to medium term). This paper also decomposes the relative role of cohort flow, changing demography and changing labour force participation on the growth of the labour supply over the past 20 years. Over this period, the entry of the baby boom generation (cohort flow) and increased labour force participation of women accounted for almost all of the growth in the labour force. Changing demography had very little effect. However, Australias future labour supply will not include a large increase in cohort flow (as caused by the baby boomers) or a very large increase in female labour force participation. Regardless of the assumptions used, labour supply growth will be considerably lower in the next and subsequent 20 years, when compared to the previous 20.     

The Importance of Identity in Policy: The Case For and Of Children

This article draws out one of the core reasons why children should be conceived as active agents in research, particularly policy‐related research. The main thesis is that policy inevitably projects and, to an extent, constitutes the subject identities of its intended objects — in this case, that of ‘children’. Drawing on several bodies of theory — the ‘new’ sociology of childhood, identity theory, ‘governmentality’ and theories of discourse — the article shows why not incorporating children’s voices is a problem for social policy, and suggests that the impact of their exclusion has the potential to render policy both inappropriate and non‐responsive.     

A Bayesian approach to non-parametric monotone function estimation

Summary.  The paper proposes two Bayesian approaches to non-parametric monotone function estimation. The first approach uses a hierarchical Bayes framework and a characterization of smooth monotone functions given by Ramsay that allows unconstrained estimation. The second approach uses a Bayesian regression spline model of Smith and Kohn with a mixture distribution of constrained normal distributions as the prior for the regression coefficients to ensure the monotonicity of the resulting function estimate. The small sample properties of the two function estimators across a range of functions are provided via simulation and compared with existing methods. Asymptotic results are also given that show that Bayesian methods provide consistent function estimators for a large class of smooth functions. An example is provided involving economic demand functions that illustrates the application of the constrained regression spline estimator in the context of a multiple-regression model where two functions are constrained to be monotone.     

Sexual Well-Being in Older Women: The Relevance of Sexual Excitation and Sexual Inhibition

The aim of this study was to use the dual control model of sexual response (DCM) to investigate variation in sexual well-being among women 50 years of age and older. Data from 185 women 50 years of age and older (M = 59.46, SD = 6.96) were used to examine the relationships between sexual excitation (SE) and sexual inhibition (SI) and their lower-order factors to indicators of sexual well-being (i.e., sexual functioning, satisfaction, distress, frequency of sexual activity, and breadth of sexual behavior). Possible moderating factors were also explored. Independently, SE and SI were associated with the majority of the indicators of sexual well-being, and the directions of associations were consistent with the tenets of the DCM. SE and SI lower-order factors were significant predictors of sexual function, satisfaction, and frequency of sexual activity. Sexual distress was predicted more strongly by SI factors and breadth of sexual behavior by one SE lower-order factor (arousability). Partner physical and mental health and participant’s own mental health were identified as moderating variables of these associations. Findings of this study are discussed considering the contribution of the DCM to understanding the role of diversity in older women’s sexual well-being.