The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models

This paper analyzes the specification and identification of causal multivariate duration models. We focus on the case in which one duration concerns the point in time a treatment is initiated and we are interested in the effect of this treatment on some outcome duration. We define “no anticipation of treatment” and relate it to a common assumption in biostatistics. We show that (i) no anticipation and (ii) randomized treatment assignment can be imposed without restricting the observational data. We impose (i) but not (ii) and prove identification of models that impose some structure. We allow for dependent unobserved heterogeneity and we do not exploit exclusion restrictions on covariates. We provide results for both single‐spell and multiple‐spell data. The timing of events conveys useful information on the treatment effect.     

CRITICAL PERIODS DURING CHILDHOOD AND ADOLESCENCE

We identify the ages that constitute sensitive (or critical) periods in children's development towards their adult health status, skills, and human capital. For this, we use data on families migrating into Sweden from countries that are poorer, with less healthy conditions. Late‐life health is proxied by adult height and other adult outcomes. The relation between siblings’ ages at migration and their adult outcomes allows us to estimate the causal effect of conditions at specific childhood ages. We effectively exploit that, for siblings, the migration occurs simultaneously in calendar time but at different developmental stages (ages). We find evidence that the period just before the puberty growth spurt constitutes a critical period for adult height and we find related critical periods for adult cognition, mental health, and education.     

Moral philosophy has much more to offer

Moral philosophy is a rich tradition that contains many alternative approaches to determining what is right and wrong. A limited account that only considers (hedonistic) utilitarianism and deontology cannot do justice to moral philosophy. It is necessary to also consider the many other general-purpose moral theories that have been proposed, as well as the approaches developed in various branches of applied ethics, such as healthcare ethics, the ethics of technology, and the ethics of risk.     

Informing employees in small and medium-sized firms about training: Results of a randomized field experiment

We mailed brochures to 10,000 randomly chosen employed German workers who were eligible for a subsidized occupational training program called WeGebAU, informing them about the importance of skills-upgrading training in general and about WeGebAU in particular. Using survey and register data, we estimate effects of the informational brochure on awareness of the program, on take-up of WeGebAU and other training, and on subsequent employment. The brochure more than doubles awareness of the program. There are no effects on WeGebAU take-up, but participation in other (unsubsidized) training increases among employees aged under 45. Short-term labor market outcomes are not affected.     

The longitudinal link between popularity,likeability, fear of negative evaluation and social avoidance across adolescence

This study investigated the longitudinal bidirectional associations between likeability, popularity, fear of negative evaluation, and social avoidance, to aid in preventing the negative consequences and persistent trajectories of low social status and heightened social anxiety. In total, 1741 adolescents in grades 7–9 participated at 3 yearly waves. A self-report questionnaire measured fear of negative evaluation. Peer nominations assessed likeability, popularity, and social avoidance. Lower popularity predicted more avoidance, and vice versa. More avoidance was related to lower likeability over time. Being less popular and/or more liked by peers, increased fear of negative evaluation. Support for a transactional model between social anxiety and social status was found, but distinguishing different social status and social anxiety components is necessary.