A seasonal mixed-POT model to estimate high flood quantiles from different event types and seasons

Flood events can be caused by several different meteorological circumstances. For example, heavy rain events often lead to short flood events with high peaks, whereas snowmelt normally results in events of very long duration with a high volume. Both event types have to be considered in the design of flood protection systems. Unfortunately, all these different event types are often included in annual maximum series (AMS) leading to inhomogeneous samples. Moreover, certain event types are underrepresented in the AMS. This is especially unsatisfactory if the most extreme events result from such an event type. Therefore, monthly maximum data are used to enlarge the information spectrum on the different event types. Of course, not all events can be included in the flood statistics because not every monthly maximum can be declared as a flood. To take this into account, a mixture Peak-over-threshold model is applied, with thresholds specifying flood events of several types that occur in a season of the year. This model is then extended to cover the seasonal type of the data. The applicability is shown in a German case study, where the impact of the single event types in different parts of a year is evaluated.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Amount of Publication Fees

Among the financing strategies available for Open Access (OA), the author-pays business model has received increasing attention. The consequences of this approach, however, for the system of scholarly communication and for publishing houses as participants in value added, have remained largely unclear. The paper presented here, therefore, analyzes the probable realistic magnitude of publishing fees in different subjects, based on empirical data. The paper shows that the most favorable conditions are met in the Natural Sciences and in Mathematics. However, the analysis also shows that publishing houses would have to raise publishing fees well beyond the level that scientists are willing to pay. Furthermore, the analysis leads to the conclusion that the amount of money currently available in the system of scholarly communication is probably not sufficient for the sustainable financing of publishing fees.     

Socio-economic patterns of sport demand and ageing

Due to the demographic situation in nowadays societies, physical activity, and sport expenditure have to be analysed from a demographic as well as socio-economical perspective. This means that determinants such as age, gender, nationality/ethnicity, income, time, educational level, profession, and social status have to be taken into account. However, when comparing the various studies, the different methods of analysis and different operationalisation of variables have to be considered. This is in particular vital investigating age. Whilst cross-sectional studies point out that physical activity generally decreases with increasing age, longitudinal analyses come to different results. Previous studies indicate that pertaining to gender more men take part in sports than women. However, considering period and cohort effects, recent longitudinal studies showed that women participate more in sport than in the past. Besides, it was found out that men generally tend to spend more money on sports than women do. A further finding is that the educational level influences physical activity positively. Research revealed that income had a positive impact on both, physical activity and sport expenditure.     

Democratic Participation in Voluntary Associations: A Multilevel Analysis of Sports Clubs in Europe

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Non-profit associations are usually democratically organized, and this feature plays a legitimizing role for the public...     

Child Protection in Voluntary Sports Clubs in Germany — Factors Fostering Engagement in the Prevention of Sexual Violence

Based on the theoretical framework of organisational capacity and using data from an online survey of 8571 sports clubs in Germany, this study investigates clubs’ engagement towards child protection and the prevention of sexual violence. Only half of the clubs indicate that the prevention of sexual violence is a relevant topic for them, and on average, the clubs have implemented between two and three prevention measures. Pertaining to organisational capacity, human resource capacity (e.g. share of volunteers, share of women on the board) and structural capacity (e.g. club culture) exhibit significant effects on clubs’ activation towards child protection.     

Incentive Contracts in Projects with Unforeseeable Uncertainty

Designing incentive contracts that constructively guide employee efforts is a particularly difficult challenge in novel innovation initiatives, where unforeseen events may occur. Empirical studies have observed a variety of incentive structures in innovation settings: “time and material contracts” (compensation for executing orders), “downside protection” (target‐driven incentives with protection from unexpected risks), and “upside rewards” (additional remuneration for pursuing opportunities). This paper develops a model of incentives in presence of unforeseen events and offers a theoretical prediction of which of the empirically observed incentive structures should be used under which circumstances. The combination of three key influences drives the shape of the best incentive contract. First, the presence of unforeseeable uncertainty, or the occurrence of events that cannot possibly be foreseen at the outset. These may force a change in the project's plan, making pure target setting insufficient. Second, fairness concerns dictate that the employee's expected compensation cannot be shifted downward by unforeseen events, because it would cause demotivation, hostility, and defection. Third, management may not be able to observe the detailed actions of the employee (moral hazard) nor whether a positive or negative unforeseen event has occurred (asymmetric information).     

Mentalisierung in der Teamsupervision

The present article focuses on mentalization in the context of team supervision. First, we elaborate on mentalization “breakdown”. We describe the different prementalizing modes by referring to the example of a team supervision, and we explain when and how they are activated. Beyond the general, stress-related model of mentalization, we identify factors in the organizational context that may impact mentalization positively and negatively. Afterwards, we illustrate how mentalization can be used in (team) supervision and how the general approach of and interventions from mentalization-based therapy (MBT) may be translated in the context of team supervision.