Statistical software packages for PCs — A market survey

The increase of statistical software applications for PCs is caused by decreasing hardware costs and dramatically enhanced PC performance. Whereas in the past the domain of statistical computing has been reserved to mainframe solutions, a great number of new software packages for PCs have come out in the last five years. Therefore, the producers of established mainframe software were also forced to offer PC-based solutions. By limiting a market analysis to products with a medium set of well known statistical methods, the immense number of available products is reduced to about fifty systems. We ordered an evaluation copy of these systems to test the numerical quality, the system speed, and the performance of several procedures. Seventeen packages were made available for an extensive examination. This paper will (1) discuss the problems and the solutions of obtaining a complete and correct datamatrix that describes the entire market and (2) present the results of a comparative market analysis.     

TOWARD A SOCIOLOGY OF CULT FILMS: Reading Rocky Horror

This article provides a sociological reading of cult films, in particular, The Rocky Horror Picture Show. Cult films are secular documents, celebrated as sacred texts by audiences and used as shared foci to collectively create rituals and belief systems. They differ from popular re-releases, fad films, films with cult qualities, and critical cult films in that they involve typical people in atypical situations, sympathetic deviance, challenges to traditional authority, reflections of societal strains, and paradoxical and interpretable resolutions. Examination of the Rocky Horror text and the cult activities that occur during its viewing, reveal it as a paradoxical indictment and validation of traditional societal arrangements.     

Sex differences in nonverbal expressiveness: Emotional expression,personality, and impressions

Sex differences in expressiveness are well documented, but the reasons for and correlates of these important differences are not well studied. A comprehensive set of emotion-relevant personality measures was administered to 40 female and 39 male undergraduate participants, who were also videotaped in three situations: engaging in natural social interaction, describing a past emotional experience, and posing various emotions. Videotapes were judged by sets of naive observers as to emotion communicated and overall impression. Expressive females, who appeared friendly and dominant in social interaction, were found to have a hostile/aggressive personality (but this was not true of males). Expressive females also tended to look angry/disgusted when describing happy and sad experiences. The findings suggest that nonverbally skilled, charismatic women (but not men) may often possess a dominant/aggressive but self-controlled personality, in a new twist on the theory that sex differences in expressiveness result in part from the oppression of women in society.This research was supported in part by an intramural research grant from University of California, Riverside.     

丰水区筑坝截流——调丰补歉

该文从中国人口快速增长、经济建设加快、用水量逐年增大 ,加上气候变暖、少雨干旱将持续到 2 0 15年 ,我国北方水生态环境日趋恶化现状 ,说明在丰水区筑坝截流、调丰补歉势在必行 ,完全符合生态经济学发展原则和国际水法     

Defining the linear portion of a sigmoid‐shaped curve: bend points

Formulae are provided that define the ‘bend points’, the beginning and end of the essentially linear dose–response region, for the four‐parameter logistic model. The formulae are expressed in both response and dose units. The derivation of the formulae is shown in order to illustrate the general nature of the methodology. Examples are given that describe how the formulae may be used while planning and conducting bioassays. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Four‐Month‐Olds' Discrimination of Voice Changes in Multimodal Displays as a Function of Discrimination Protocol

Past studies have found equivocal support for the ability of young infants to discriminate infant‐directed (ID) speech information in the presence of auditory‐only versus auditory + visual displays (faces + voices). Generally, younger infants appear to have more difficulty discriminating a change in the vocal properties of ID speech when they are accompanied by faces. Forty 4‐month‐old infants were tested using either an infant‐controlled habituation procedure (Experiment 1) or a fixed‐trial habituation procedure (Experiment 2). The prediction was that the infant‐controlled habituation procedure would be a more sensitive measure of infant attention to complex displays. The results indicated that 4‐month‐old infants discriminated voice changes in dynamic face + voice displays depending on the order in which they were viewed during the infant‐controlled habituation procedure. In contrast, no evidence of discrimination was found in the fixed‐trial procedure. The findings suggest that the selection of experimental methodology plays a significant role in the empirical observations of infant perceptual abilities.     

A Numerical Solution to the Nonhomogeneous Two-Stage MVK Model of Cancer

In this article, we describe a straightforward method for solving the probability of at least one malignant cell by time t, and the associated hazard function, in the general (i.e., nonhomogeneous) two-stage Moolgavkar-Venzon-Knudson (MVK) model of cancer. The method consists of solving four coupled ordinary differential equations derived from the Kolmogorov backward equations for this process. The relationship of this method to previously proposed solutions is discussed.     

Expected sample moments of concomitants of selected order statistics

In this paper, the task of determining expected values of sample moments, where the sample members have been selected based on noisy information, is considered. This task is a recurring problem in the theory of evolution strategies. Exact expressions for expected values of sums of products of concomitants of selected order statistics are derived. Then, using Edgeworth and Cornish-Fisher approximations, explicit results that depend on coefficients that can be determined numerically are obtained. While the results are exact only for normal populations, it is shown experimentally that including skewness and kurtosis in the calculations can yield greatly improved results for other distributions.     

Joint impact of multiple observations on a subset of variables in multiple linear regression

In multiple linear regression analysis, each observation affects the fitted regression equation differently and has varying influences on the regression coefficients of the different variables. Chatterjee & Hadi (1988) have proposed some measures such as DSSE_ij (Impact on Residual Sum of Squares of simultaneously omitting the ith observation and the jth variable), F_j (Partial F-test for the jth variable) and F_j(i) (Partial F-test for the jth variable omitting the ith observation) to show the joint impact and the interrelationship that exists among a variable and an observation. In this paper we have proposed more extended form of those measures DSSE_IJ, F_J and F_J(I) to deal with the interrelationships that exist among the multiple observations and a subset of variables by monitoring the effects of the simultaneous omission of multiple variables and multiple observations.     

A comparison of indicators for evaluating x-11-arima seasonal adjustment

Summary The evaluation of the performance of seasonal adjustment procedures is an issue of practical importance in view of the unobservable nature of the components. Looking at just one indicator when judging the overall quality of a procedure may be misleading, even though this is common practice when many series are involved. The main purpose of this paper is to compare the information content of different synthetic indicators with reference to the X-11-ARIMA procedure. Sixty-six different types of monthly seasonal series are generated and the seasonal component then extracted by carrying out X-11-ARIMA with standard options. The correlation between the pseudo-true error for each series and various synthetic indicators allows us to compare the latter's reliability, under both the hypotheses of minimum and maximum variance of the pseudo-true seasonal component. We show that the overall quality indexQ-the indicator most commonly adopted by users of the X-11-ARIMA-is always outperformed by the simpler diagnostics based on the stability of the estimates. In particular, the “sliding-spans” indicator, proposed by Findley et al. (1990) and included in the diagnostics of the new X-12 procedure, shows a much stronger correlation with the pseudo-true error in the seasonal adjustment. We also show that the total forecasting errors in the one-year-ahead extrapolation of the seasonal component have a good informative power and perform almost as well as the “sliding-spans” indicator.