THE EFFECTS OF DISCRETIONARY FEDERAL SPENDING ON PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS

Parliamentary rules make it difficult for opposition members of Parliament to influence government spending. As the electorate is aware of this situation discretionary federal spending is expected to affect vote-share differently for majority and opposition incumbents. Consistent estimators yield positive and significant point estimates for the impact of increases in spending for majority incumbents in Canadian federal elections yet yield negative but insignificant point estimates for opposition incumbents. Furthermore, $100 additional federal spending per capita in an electoral district is estimated to increase majority candidates' vote-share, regardless of incumbency, by between 1.5 and 2.5 percentage points. (JEL D72, H59 )     

REPRESENTATIVE TRUST AND RECIPROCITY: PREVALENCE AND DETERMINANTS

This paper provides evidence about the determinants of trust and reciprocal inclinations, that is, a tendency for people to respond in kind to hostile or kind actions, in a representative setting. We investigate the prevalence of reciprocity in the population, the correlation between trust and positive and negative reciprocal inclinations within person, the individual determinants of reciprocity, and the relationship with psychological measures of personality. We find that most people state reciprocal inclinations, in particular in terms of positive reciprocity, as well as substantial heterogeneity in the degree of trust and reciprocity. Trust and positive reciprocity are only weakly correlated, while trust and negative reciprocity exhibit a negative correlation. In terms of determinants, being female and increasing age are associated with stronger positive and weaker negative reciprocal tendencies. Taller people are more positively reciprocal, but height has no impact on negative reciprocity. Psychological traits also affect trust and reciprocity. ( JEL D63, J3, J6)     

A heterarchical generic discrete manufacturing simulation model and its application in a world class manufacturing environment

Current factory design and evaluation is very primitive. Factory components are designed in many cases independently. Product and process design are not well integrated. An encompassing framework is needed for iterating through a series of total factory designs, searching for optimal performance. In addition, a vehicle is needed for predicting the performance of a proposed advanced manufacturing system, so that engineers may have a sound means for evaluating such proposals. A heterarchical discrete manufacturing SIMNET II simulation model (SIMCELLS) was developed as a comprehensive methodology for designing and evaluating discrete manufacturing systems. SIMCELLS allows manufacturing systems engineers to experiment with alternative system structures and control strategies while seeking that combination of design features that will produce the desired overall system performance. The model in combination with a modernization programme is enabling a firm to successfully manufacture and sell trucks meeting international standards. The SIMNET II model     

An Additive–Multiplicative Cox–Aalen Regression Model

We propose an additive–multiplicative intensity model that extends the Cox regression model as well as the additive Aalen model. Instead of having a simple baseline intensity the extended model uses an additive Aalen model as its covariate dependent baseline. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators of the baseline intensity functions and the relative risk parameters of the Cox model are suggested by solving the score equations. The derived estimator is efficient. We establish the large sample properties of the estimator. The model provides a simple pragmatic way of including time-varying covariate effects.     

ADDICTION AS EXTREME-SEEKING

This paper examines addictive and compulsive behavior within a new framework, in an effort to establish a stronger link to the psychological and sociological literature on the subject. Individuals who suffer an addiction are not the classic homo economicus of textbooks, but are instead extreme-seekers. Concavities in indifference curves provide a simple characterization of extreme-seeking. The consequences of consumption which is physiologically or psychologically addicting and which threatens the individual's health are modeled in terms of capital and threshold effects. The model is then used, tentatively, to assess policies aimed at controlling substance abuse.     

Television Exposure and Attitude Change: The Impact of Political Interest

A number of media effects studies have speculated that politicallyuninvolved individuals are susceptible to attitudinal or behavioralchange as a result of media exposure. This possibility is investigatedby testing a causal model of change in attitude toward PresidentNixon during the Watergate period (1972–1974). The initialanalysis suggested that political interest was a source of interactionin the model; it was thus treated as a specifying variable bytesting separate models for high and low interest respondents.Though exposure to Watergate-related television had no discernibleimpact on attitude toward Nixon for high interest individuals,it was the only significant predictor of 1974 Nixon attitudefor persons with low political interest.