DO PRICES LEAD MONEY? A REEXAMINATION OF THE NEUTRALITY HYPOTHESIS

In one class of theoretical models, real epects occur only if changes in money growth are expected to occur in some future period, if expected in the current period, they are neutral. Some empirical models examine the neutrality of expected current money growth and therefore do not directly address the neutrality of expected future growth. This paper develops an empirical model that explicitly incorporates expected future changes in money growth. A reexamination of the rationality, neutrality, and macro-rational expectations hypotheses over a sample of four countries suggests that the use of expected future money growth results in strong rejections of the neutrality hypothesis.     

THE REACTION OF INTEREST RATES TO UNANTICIPATED FEDERAL RESERVE ACTIONS AND STATEMENTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MONEY ANNOUNCEMENT CONTROVERSY

This paper examines the reaction of long- and short-term interest rates to monetary policy surprises that influenced market expectations of the future behavior of the federal funds rate in the period after October 1979. We find that the relative reaction of long- and short-term rates to policy surprises is similar to the relative reaction of these rates to money announcements. Consequently, we conclude that the large reaction of long-term interest rates to money announcements in the period after October 1979 is consistent with the "policy anticipations hypothesis" which views this reaction as a movement in real interest rates.     

Is a Questionnaire Necessary in a Second Mailing?

Current Research This section of POQ is reserved for brief reportsof research in progress, discussions of unresolved problems,methodological studies, and public opinion data not extensivelyanalyzed or interpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed,as well as hypotheses and insights that may be useful to otherstudents of public opinion. Usually, material in this sectionis shorter, more informal, and more tentative than in precedingpages.     

SOME FACTORS AFFECTING MOBILITY IN THE LABOR MARKET FOR ACADEMIC ECONOMISTS

This study examines the effects of publication, geographic preferences, and institutional preferences on the mobility of academic economists during the period 1955-69. Using a sample of 3813 economists who published at least one article during this period, the analysis indicates that publications do promote upward mobility but to a limited extent. The number of publications rather than their quality promotes mobility, but movement occurs primarily within well-defined geographic regions. The market for academic economists appears to be strongly segmented along geographic lines. Moves within geographic regions tend to be to departments of equal or lesser prestige than the department from which the individual has moved.     

Professional Wrestling as Moral Order

This paper treats structuralist and interactionist perspectives as complementary in an approach to the dynamics of professional wrestling as a social scene. Both directive or formulating aspects of culture as it is specified for social life and the creativity of human agents in negotiating such constraints from the viewpoint of their particularistic interests are emphasized in an examination of the confirmation and negotiation of identities, the clash and resolution of moral meanings, the calculated transgression of legal tradition, the location of the charismatic hero, and the ritual importance of disorder and crisis in wrestling. As such, the paper is offered as a contribution to an understanding of the sources and movement of meanings in ritual and dramatic forms.