Keep Your Friends Close? Supply Chain Design and Disruption Risk

In this article, we evaluate the relationship between supply chain design decisions and supply chain disruption risk. We explore two supply chain design strategies: (i) the dispersion of supply chain partners to reduce supply chain disruption risk versus (ii) the co‐location of supply chain partners to reduce supply chain disruption risk. In addition, we assess supply chain disruption risk from three perspectives: the inbound material flow from the supplier (supply side), the internal production processes (internal), and the outbound material flow to the customer (customer side) as a disruption can occur at any of these locations. We measure disruption risk in terms of stoppages in flows, reductions in flow, close calls (disruptions that were prevented at the last minute), disruption duration (time until normal operation flow was restored), and the spread of disruptions all the way through the supply chain. We use seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to analyze our data, finding that lead times, especially supply side lead times, are significantly associated with higher levels of supply chain disruption risk. We find co‐location with suppliers appears to have beneficial effects to the reduction of disruption duration, and, overall supply side factors have a higher impact when it comes to supply chain disruption risk than comparable customer side factors.     

新冠肺炎疫情突发期政策制定的特征分析与效果评价 ——基于江苏省疾病预防控制中心的田野观察

文章聚焦政策本身,采用在江苏省疾病预防控制中心进行田野观察的研究方法,收集新型冠状病毒肺炎（简称新冠肺炎）疫情突发期的政策并进行文本分析,主要讨论政策文本发布时间的分布态势、发布单位、发布形式和政策内容4个方面。研究发现,在新冠肺炎疫情突发期（2020年1月15日至1月31日）国家级和省级指导性文件数量锐增。以江苏省为例,省级政策发文单位单一、文本类型多为通知类,起到了应对突发公共卫生事件时的及时反馈、迅速应急以及布置指导的作用。政策发布主体联防联控的及时应对性以及对政策文本的长效性考虑上尚有欠缺。总结政策制定的规律、原则以及经验,提出公共卫生事件突发期的政策观念应从单一权威主义走向多元协作,政策导向应从“战”时应急转向“平战结合”,政策价值应从“短期”应急转向“常态化”指导。     

A SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF THE JAPANESE JUST-IN-TIME TECHNIQUE (WITH KANBANS) FOR A MULTILINE,MULTISTAGE PRODUCTION SYSTEM

The Japanese “just-in-time with kanban” technique reduces in-process inventory to absolute minimal levels, in concert with the Japanese belief that inventory is an unnecessary evil. Due to the success of Japanese firms that employ this type of system, American firms would like to import this technique and emulate Japanese successes. But this Japanese success may be attributable not only to the just-in-time with kanban technique but also to the production environment in which the technique is employed. This paper simulates the just-in-time with kanban technique for a multiline, multistage production system in order to determine its adaptability to an American production environment that might include such characteristics as variable processing times, variable master production scheduling, and imbalances between production stages. The results have practical implications for those firms considering adoption of the Japanese technique.     

On Bartlett correction of empirical likelihood for regularly spaced spatial data

Bartlett correction constitutes one of the attractive features of empirical likelihood because it enables the construction of confidence regions for parameters with improved coverage probabilities. We study the Bartlett correction of spatial frequency domain empirical likelihood (SFDEL) based on general spectral estimating functions for regularly spaced spatial data. This general formulation can be applied to testing and estimation problems in spatial analysis, for example testing covariance isotropy, testing covariance separability as well as estimating the parameters of spatial covariance models. We show that the SFDEL is Bartlett correctable. In particular, the improvement in coverage accuracies of the Bartlett‐corrected confidence regions depends on the underlying spatial structures. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 455–472; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Business Collaboration within the Nazi War Machine: Corporations and the State in the Austrian Semiperiphery

The military strength of German National Socialism was based on the collaboration of large corporations with the Nazi state. Business provided capital, loans, taxes, managerial expertise and production for war industries. I elaborate four ideal‐typical modes of business collaboration. Each mode is illustrated by a case study of a German corporation that acquires an Austrian firm: Krupp (traditional mode); the Reichswerke state conglomerate (coercive); Deutsche Bank (managerial nationalist); and IG Farben (competitive investment mode). The first and the last modes occurred when the state was highly dependent on large businesses for the economic requisites of war. The acquired firms in the Austrian semiperiphery contributed to Nazi war mobilization, as they exploited labor and resources from the peripheral regions of southeastern Europe. Patterns of the state's resource dependency on business led to bargaining interactions between state and business, over time shaping the mix between state and private ownership of war industry.     

An extended semiparametric model for short-term and long-term hazard ratios

In survival analysis, one way to deal with non-proportional hazards is to model short-term and long-term hazard ratios. The existing model of this nature has no control over how fast the hazard ratio is changing over time. We add a parameter to the existing model to allow the hazard ratio to change over time at different speed. A nonparametric maximum likelihood approach is used to estimate the model parameters. The existing model is a special case of the extended model when the speed parameter is 0, which leads naturally to a way of testing the adequacy of the existing model. Simulation results show that there can be substantial bias in the estimation of the short-term and long-term hazard ratio if the speed parameter is fixed incorrectly at 0 rather than estimated. The extended model is fitted to three real data sets to shed new insights, including the observation that converging hazards does not necessarily imply the odds are proportional.     

Theoretical results on the discrete Weibull distribution of Nakagawa and Osaki

In this paper, we discuss some theoretical results and properties of the discrete Weibull distribution, which was introduced by Nakagawa and Osaki [The discrete Weibull distribution. IEEE Trans Reliab. 1975;24:300–301]. We study the monotonicity of the probability mass, survival and hazard functions. Moreover, reliability, moments, p-quantiles, entropies and order statistics are also studied. We consider likelihood-based methods to estimate the model parameters based on complete and censored samples, and to derive confidence intervals. We also consider two additional methods to estimate the model parameters. The uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimate of one of the parameters that index the discrete Weibull model is discussed. Numerical evaluation of the considered model is performed by Monte Carlo simulations. For illustrative purposes, two real data sets are analyzed.     

Communication in Statistics-Theory and methods improved GQL estimation method for the generalised BINMA(1) model

In a recent research, the quasi-likelihood estimation methodology was developed to estimate the regression effects in the Generalized BINMA(1) (GBINMA(1)) process. The method provides consistent parameter estimates but, in the intermediate computations, moment estimating equations were used to estimate the serial- and cross-correlation parameters. This procedure may not result optimal parameter estimates, in particular, for the regression effects. This paper provides an alternative simpler GBINMA(1) process based on multivariate thinning properties where the main effects are estimated via a robust generalized quasi-likelihood (GQL) estimation approach. The two techniques are compared through some simulation experiments. A real-life data application is studied.     

Urbanization-related distribution patterns and habitat-use by the marine mesopredator,giant Pacific octopus (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Enteroctopus dofleini</Emphasis>)

Urbanization is a process that heavily alters marine and terrestrial environments, though terrestrial urban ecosystems have been studied far more intensively. Terrestrial studies suggest that urbanization can facilitate mesopredators by enhancing food and shelter resources and reducing predation pressure from apex consumers. This in turn has considerable consequences for ecological communities. We evaluated spatial distribution patterns and habitat-use of the marine mesopredator, giant Pacific octopus (Enteroctopus dofleini), relative to terrestrial urbanization intensity in Puget Sound, Washington, USA. Using field surveys and citizen-contributed data for E. dofleini, we examined whether: (1) Distribution was related to urbanization, (2) Abundance was related to the extent of benthic anthropogenic debris, and (3) Diet differed as a function of urbanization and den cover. Our results suggest that urbanization impacts may differ with depth. Mixed-effects logistic regression model estimates for the probability of occurrence increased with urbanization in deep-water (> 24 m), and decreased with urbanization in shallow water (< 18 m). Accompanying field surveys indicated that E. dofleini abundance was correlated with the number of benthic anthropogenic debris items, and that E. dofleini diets were not affected by urbanization intensity or den cover. Though E. dofleini may be synanthropic within certain urban environments, the mechanisms driving this pattern likely differ from those affecting common urban mesopredators on land, with den provisioning from man-made structures being more important than altered food resources.