The fertility contribution of Mexican immigration to the United States

Crucial to the long-term contribution of immigration to a receiving country's population is the extent to which the immigrants reproduce themselves in subsequent, native-born generations. Using conventional projection methodologies, this fertility contribution may be poorly estimated primarily because of problems in projecting the number of immigrants who are at risk of childbearing. We propose an alternative method that obviates the need to project the number of immigrants by using the full sending-country birth cohort as the risk group to project their receiving-country childbearing. This "sending-country birth cohort" method is found to perform dramatically better than conventional methods when projecting to 1999 from base years both before and after the large increase in inflows of Mexican immigrants to the United States in the late 1980s. Projecting forward from 1999, we estimate a cumulative contribution of Mexican immigrant fertility from the 1980s to 2040 of 36 million births, including 25% to 50% more births after 1995 than are projected using conventional methods.     

Subjective Distributions

A decision maker has to choose one of several random variables whose distributions are not known. As a Bayesian, she behaves as if she knew the distributions. In this paper we suggest an axiomatic derivation of these (subjective) distributions, which is more economical than the derivations by de Finetti or Savage. Whereas the latter derive the whole joint distribution of all the available random variables, our approach derives only the marginal distributions. Correspondingly, the preference questionnaire needed in our case is less smaller.     

Uncertainty and the Second Space: Modern Birth Timing and the Dilemma of Education

This paper focuses on the relationship between experiential and statistical uncertainties in the timing of births in Cameroon (Central Africa). Most theories of fertility level and change emphasize the emergence of parity-specific control, treating desired family size as both central, and stable across the life course. By contrast, this paper argues for a theory of reproduction that emphasizes process, social context, and contingency. The paper concentrates on the second birth interval, showing that it is longer and more variable among educated than among uneducated women. The paper argues that this difference is due to the specific forms of uncertainty associated with education in contemporary Cameroon.     

A comparison of Japanese failure models: Hybrid neural networks,logit models,and discriminant analysis

This article looks at the ability of a relatively new technique, hybrid artificial neural networks (ANNs), to predict Japanese banking and firm failures. These models are compared with traditional statistical techniques and conventional ANN models. The results suggest that hybrid neural networks outperform all other models in predicting failure for one year prior to the event. This suggests that for researchers, policymakers, and others interested in early warning systems, the hybrid network may be a useful tool for predicting banking and firm failures.     

On Combinatorial Approximation of Covering 0-1 Integer Programs and Partial Set Cover

The problems dealt with in this paper are generalizations of the set cover problem, min{cx | Ax b, x {0,1}ⁿ}, where c Q₊ⁿ, A {0,1}^{m × n}, b 1. The covering 0-1 integer program is the one, in this formulation, with arbitrary nonnegative entries of A and b, while the partial set cover problem requires only m–K constrains (or more) in Ax b to be satisfied when integer K is additionall specified. While many approximation algorithms have been recently developed for these problems and their special cases, using computationally rather expensive (albeit polynomial) LP-rounding (or SDP-rounding), we present a more efficient purely combinatorial algorithm and investigate its approximation capability for them. It will be shown that, when compared with the best performance known today and obtained by rounding methods, although its performance comes short in some special cases, it is at least equally good in general, extends for partial vertex cover, and improves for weighted multicover, partial set cover, and further generalizations.     

Charisma,Macht und Narzissmus

Charisma, power and narcissism. On the diagnostics of an ambivalent leading qualityManagers are often obviously narcissistic personalities with “charismatic qualities”. The author discusses the background of these qualities and their ambivalence, because behind the brilliance of a successful manager may be a hidden narcissistic problem as the actual motive power. Nevertheless a constructive narcissism is to be distinguished from a destructive one. Charismatic constellations as well as narcissistic dynamics are to be understood not only as an individual problem but as an interactional phenomenon, involving both sides of a relationship. In order to explain these dynamics, the author presents the concepts of “narcissistic collusion” and “expanded self”. It is of great importance to the coach, to be able to analyse and to deal with these relational patterns — and also to preserve oneself from being involved in such narcissistic dynamics.     

Coaching von Unternehmern Erfahrungen und Wirkungen

Coaching of owner-entrepreneurs — experiences and effectsThe author argues that the kind of coaching which owner-entrepreneurs require differs in fundamental ways from the kind of coaching for hired top managers. The difference is rooted in the higher level of complexity of the decision problems of owner-entrepreneurs, which needs to be reflected in a more complex approach chosen by the coach. In this context, the ability to make himself better understood by others turns out to be a very essential key capacity which some owner-entrepreneurs lack and which a qualified coach can help them to regain.     

Toyota in the 21st century in Asian countries: Information exchange system and best mix

This article explains the general nature of the business style of Toyota management strategy, its specific performance, and its development in China. It is quite difficult to find specific revolutionary policies and unusual strategies for the success of the Toyota Motor Corporation.     

Philosophie als Einübung des Perspektivenwechsels am Beispiel von Platon und Nietzsche

Philosophy as exercising the shift of perspectives, exemplified with Plato and NietzscheIn professional counselling a shift of perspectives is useful to develop new options of thinking and of action in the case of seemingly hopeless situations. Philosophy presents a great variety of concepts and also of models of change processes, which may offer a resource to counsellors. With regard to Plato’s “cave metaphor” and to Nietzsche’s “transvaluation of all values” the author presents a structure of change in three stages. Concerning the practice of counsellors some relevant aspects are derived from these discussions.