Towards a Multidimensional Measure of Governance

This paper proposes a new index of governance based on the Alkire-Foster methodology and compares it with the Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance. The proposed new index improves on existing measures of governance in two ways. First, it is able to incorporate both cardinal and ordinal variables without having to assign cardinal meaning to ordinal variables. The cardinalization of ordinal variables can lead to ambiguous rankings depending on the choice of the cardinal scale. Second, by borrowing the mechanism of cutoffs found in poverty measurement literature, the index can focus attention on nations deprived in terms of governance. The index is computed for the 48 countries of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation’s data. The groups of best-performing and worst-performing nations identified by each of the two methods are largely similar. However, there are some differences among the middle order governance nations. An additional advantage of the proposed methodology is that it involves counting each country’s achievements in the dimensions of governance, which can be presented in a report card of governance.     

The concept of risk unbiasedness in statistical prediction

This paper extends the concept of risk unbiasedness for applying to statistical prediction and nonstandard inference problems, by formalizing the idea that a risk unbiased predictor should be at least as close to the “true” predictant as to any “wrong” predictant, on the average. A novel aspect of our approach is measuring closeness between a predicted value and the predictant by a regret function, derived suitably from the given loss function. The general concept is more relevant than mean unbiasedness, especially for asymmetric loss functions. For squared error loss, we present a method for deriving best (minimum risk) risk unbiased predictors when the regression function is linear in a function of the parameters. We derive a Rao–Blackwell type result for a class of loss functions that includes squared error and LINEX losses as special cases. For location-scale families, we prove that if a unique best risk unbiased predictor exists, then it is equivariant. The concepts and results are illustrated with several examples. One interesting finding is that in some problems a best unbiased predictor does not exist, but a best risk unbiased predictor can be obtained. Thus, risk unbiasedness can be a useful tool for selecting a predictor.     

Understanding the role of facial asymmetry in human face identification

Face recognition has important applications in forensics (criminal identification) and security (biometric authentication). The problem of face recognition has been extensively studied in the computer vision community, from a variety of perspectives. A relatively new development is the use of facial asymmetry in face recognition, and we present here the results of a statistical investigation of this biometric. We first show how facial asymmetry information can be used to perform three different face recognition tasks—human identification (in the presence of expression variations), classification of faces by expression, and classification of individuals according to sex. Initially, we use a simple classification method, and conduct a feature analysis which shows the particular facial regions that play the dominant role in achieving these three entirely different classification goals. We then pursue human identification under expression changes in greater depth, since this is the most important task from a practical point of view. Two different ways of improving the performance of the simple classifier are then discussed: (i) feature combinations and (ii) the use of resampling techniques (bagging and random subspaces). With these modifications, we succeed in obtaining near perfect classification results on a database of 55 individuals, a statistically significant improvement over the initial results as seen by hypothesis tests of proportions.     

Analyzing the Dimensionality of Place Attachment and Its Relationship with Residential Satisfaction in New Cities: The Case of Sadra,Iran

Social Indicators Research - During the recent decades, new cities have been set up around Iranian main cities, after exclusive pre-planning and investigations. However, no significant research...     

Exact inference for the two-parameter exponential distribution under Type-II hybrid censoring

Epstein (1954) introduced the Type-I hybrid censoring scheme as a mixture of Type-I and Type-II censoring schemes. Childs et al. (2003) introduced the Type-II hybrid censoring scheme as an alternative to Type-I hybrid censoring scheme, and provided the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean of a one-parameter exponential distribution based on Type-II hybrid censored samples. The associated confidence interval also has been provided. The main aim of this paper is to consider a two-parameter exponential distribution, and to derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters based on Type-II hybrid censored samples. The marginal distributions and the exact confidence intervals are also provided. The results can be used to derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the percentile point, and to construct the associated confidence interval. Different methods are compared using extensive simulations and one data analysis has been performed for illustrative purposes.     

An empirical bayes estimate of multinomial probabilities

This paper deals with the prblem of estimating simultaneously the parameters (Cell probabilities) of m ≤ 2 independent multinomial distributions, with respect to a quadratic loss functions. An empirical Bayes estimator is proposed which is shown to have smaller risk than the maximum likelihood estimator for sufficiently large values of mq, where q is a measure of the average diversity of the given multinomial populations. Some numerical results are given on the performance of the proposed estimator.     

Bayesian Analysis of Different Hybrid and Progressive Life Tests

Type-I and Type-II censoring schemes are the widely used censoring schemes available for life testing experiments. A mixture of Type-I and Type-II censoring schemes is known as a hybrid censoring scheme. Different hybrid censoring schemes have been introduced in recent years. In the last few years, a progressive censoring scheme has also received considerable attention. In this article, we mainly consider the Bayesian inference of the unknown parameters of two-parameter exponential distribution under different hybrid and progressive censoring schemes. It is observed that in general the Bayes estimate and the associated credible interval of any function of the unknown parameters, cannot be obtained in explicit form. We propose to use the Monte Carlo sampling procedure to compute the Bayes estimate and also to construct the associated credible interval. Monte Carlo Simulation experiments have been performed to see the effectiveness of the proposed method in case of Type-I hybrid censored samples. The performances are quite satisfactory. One data analysis has been performed for illustrative purposes.     

An L-statistic approach to a test of exponentiality against IFR alternatives

In this note we consider the problem of testing exponentiality against IFR alternatives. A measure of deviation from exponentiality is developed and a test statistic constructed on the basis of this measure. It is shown that the test statistic is an L-statistic. The asymptotic as well as the exact distribution of the test statistic is obtained and the test is shown to be consistent.     

Setting confidence intervals by ratio estimator

For the survey population total of a variable y when values of an auxiliary variable x are available a popular procedure is to employ the ratio estimator on drawing a simple random sample without replacement (SRSWOR) especially when the size of the sample is large. To set up a confidence interval for the total, various variance estimators are available to pair with the ratio estimator. We add a few more variance estimators studded with asymptotic design-cum-model properties. The ratio estimator is traditionally known to be appropriate when the regression of y on x is linear through the origin and the conditional variance of y given x is proportional to x. But through a numerical exercise by simulation we find the confidence intervals to fare better if the regression line deviates from the origin or if the conditional variance is disproportionate with x. Also, comparing the confidence intervals using alternative variance estimators we find our newly proposed variance estimators to yield favourably competitive results.     

Likelihood inference for lognormal data with left truncation and right censoring with an illustration

The lognormal distribution is quite commonly used as a lifetime distribution. Data arising from life-testing and reliability studies are often left truncated and right censored. Here, the EM algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of the lognormal model based on left truncated and right censored data. The maximization step of the algorithm is carried out by two alternative methods, with one involving approximation using Taylor series expansion (leading to approximate maximum likelihood estimate) and the other based on the EM gradient algorithm (Lange, 1995). These two methods are compared based on Monte Carlo simulations. The Fisher scoring method for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates shows a problem of convergence under this setup, except when the truncation percentage is small. The asymptotic variance-covariance matrix of the MLEs is derived by using the missing information principle (Louis, 1982), and then the asymptotic confidence intervals for scale and shape parameters are obtained and compared with corresponding bootstrap confidence intervals. Finally, some numerical examples are given to illustrate all the methods of inference developed here.