“FOI POR ACASO”*:

Everyone knows that most of the things that happen to them happen “by accident,” and this is particularly true of the things that are most important to us, like our choice of a career or a mate. Yet social science theory looks for determinate causal relationships, which do not give an adequate account of this thing that “everyone knows.” If we take the idea of “it happened by chance” seriously, we need a quite different kind of research and theory than we are accustomed to.     

Services for troubled adolescents: exploring user variation

This paper outlines some of the main findings from an exploratory study of a sample of 257 adolescents living in children's homes, foster homes and residential special schools ‘for pupils with emotional and behavioural difficulties’ (‘EBD’). It focuses on the characteristics of service users, particularly contrasting the looked after and EBD groups. Though there are some similarities, there are also important differences between the populations in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, reasons for separation, legal status, family background and education. An attempt was made systematically to compare groups by creating a subsample of ‘difficult’ adolescents, based on involvement in anti‐social behaviour. Unexpectedly, this revealed that half of the teenagers were not ‘difficult’. Factors associated with being identified as ‘difficult’ were explored.     

REMARKS ON OPTIMAL INFERENCE FOR MARKOV BRANCHING PROCESSES: A SEQUENTIAL APPROACH

Use of a suitable stopping rule yields exact uniformly most powerful tests and minimum variance unbiased estimators of various parameters of a Markov branching model with or without immigration. The population model discussed includes the pure birth, simple epidemic, immigration-death, M/M/ 1 queue, linear birth-death and a branching diffusion process, among others, as special cases.     

Energy interdependence in the economy of the Federal Republic of Germany

The paper reports an input-output analysis of energy flows in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) economy which includes a capital flows matrix. Results include a quantification of the interdependence of energy with other manufacturing resources, and an estimate of energy and energy-related costs of commodities. An approximate method of estimating the effects of changes in technical coefficients and primary input costs is assessed.     

Perceived income adequacy and selected financial management practices among families in Chile and Mexico

The purpose of this study was to explore the perceived adequacy of families' incomes and selected financial management practices (food budgetin debt, saving) in two Latin American countries. An interview survey was used to gather socioeconomic and demographic information from 537 families in Chile and Mexico. There were major differences between Chile and Mexico in the income adequacy responses and also major differences within countries between income levels. Implications of the findings for policy makers and curriculum planners who work in developing countries with inflationary conditions and income inadequacies are discussed.     

Estimating the completeness of under-5 death registration in Egypt

To evaluate the completeness of registration of infant and child deaths in Egypt, reinterviews were conducted with families who had reported a death of a child under age 5 in the five years before the survey for two national surveys recently conducted in Egypt: the United Nations PAPCHILD survey of1990-1991 and the Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) of 1992. The survey instrument included questions regarding notification of the death at the local health bureau. If the family said the death had been notified, separate employees searched the health bureau records for the registration. Overall 57% of infant deaths were reported as notified and 68% of those death reports were found; the corresponding figuresfor child deaths were 89% and 74%. Using the percentage reported as notified as an estimate for completeness of registration, we adjusted upward the national infant and child mortality rates from registration data, giving values of 73 per 1,000 for infant mortality and 99 for ₅q₀ for the period 1987-1990. These values are approximately 20% above the corresponding direct estimates from the PAPCHILD and EDHS surveys.