Bayesian Non-Parametric Estimation of Smooth Hazard Rates for Seismic Hazard Assessment

Abstract.  Hazard rate estimation is an alternative to density estimation for positive variables that is of interest when variables are times to event. In particular, it is here shown that hazard rate estimation is useful for seismic hazard assessment. This paper suggests a simple, but flexible, Bayesian method for non-parametric hazard rate estimation, based on building the prior hazard rate as the convolution mixture of a Gaussian kernel with an exponential jump-size compound Poisson process. Conditions are given for a compound Poisson process prior to be well-defined and to select smooth hazard rates, an elicitation procedure is devised to assign a constant prior expected hazard rate while controlling prior variability, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution is obtained. Finally, the suggested method is validated in a simulation study, and some Italian seismic event data are analysed.     

吸附制冷系统中吸附床的传热传质分析及结构设计

对化学吸附制冷系统中吸附剂颗粒之间以及整个吸附床的传热传质特性进行了分析，并总结了目前国内外强化吸附床传热传质性能的主要措施和方法．分析比较了两种用于化学吸附制冷的典型吸附床结构，在此基础上设计了一种新型的吸附床．     

Objective Bayes Factors for Gaussian Directed Acyclic Graphical Models

Abstract. We propose an objective Bayesian method for the comparison of all Gaussian directed acyclic graphical models defined on a given set of variables. The method, which is based on the notion of fractional Bayes factor (BF), requires a single default (typically improper) prior on the space of unconstrained covariance matrices, together with a prior sample size hyper‐parameter, which can be set to its minimal value. We show that our approach produces genuine BFs. The implied prior on the concentration matrix of any complete graph is a data‐dependent Wishart distribution, and this in turn guarantees that Markov equivalent graphs are scored with the same marginal likelihood. We specialize our results to the smaller class of Gaussian decomposable undirected graphical models and show that in this case they coincide with those recently obtained using limiting versions of hyper‐inverse Wishart distributions as priors on the graph‐constrained covariance matrices.     

探寻武士道嬗变的轨迹及其民族学透视

日本武家文化背景下孕育产生的武士道精神,经过千年发展积淀,逐渐与日本民族文化融为一体,对日本民族产生了深远的影响,是日本民族精神的核心。近代蜕变成为军国主义的精神工具,引领日本走上了侵略扩张道路。     

氯化钙-氨吸附式制冷的实验研究

介绍了以氯化钙一氨为工质对的吸附式两床循环制冷装置，并在此实验装置上进行了实验研究，得出了以氯化钙一氨为工质对的连续循环制冷系统的制冷量、性能系数COP随时间的变化关系．结果表明，此装置的制冷效果优于设计指标，设计的壳管式吸附器具有实用性．     

构建社会主义和谐社会符合穆斯林的宗教信仰和根本利益

和谐是人类普遍的追求,是历史发展的永恒主题。实现社会和谐,建设美好社会,是世界上各民族、各宗教孜孜以求的共同社会理想。现在党和国家提出构建社会主义和谐社会,那么中国穆斯林这样一个信仰伊斯兰教的中华民族的组成群体如何在构建和谐社会的过程中发挥自己的作用,作出应有的贡献?本文以宗教和社会主义相适应,各民族携手共建和谐社会这个角度,从对和谐社会的理解和认识、伊斯兰教的和谐观、中国穆斯林应该为构建社会主义和谐社会这一共同目标而不懈努力三个方面探讨了伊斯兰教和穆斯林群众对构建社会主义和谐社会应有的认识、态度及实践。     

山西省生猪产品竞争力比较分析

养猪业是农村经济的重要组成部分,是畜牧业的主导。山西省地处黄土高原,有发展养猪业的资源优势。运用简单比较法,对山西省生猪产品在不同的饲养方式下与全国生猪产品在同种饲养方式下进行对比分析,揭示了山西省生猪产品生产在成本、价格、收益方面与全国同指标(平均)水平对比的优(劣)势状况,畜产品质量安全状况,并提出提升山西省生猪产品竞争力的对策建议。     

On Block Ordering of Variables in Graphical Modelling

Abstract.  In graphical modelling, the existence of substantive background knowledge on block ordering of variables is used to perform structural learning within the family of chain graphs (CGs) in which every block corresponds to an undirected graph and edges joining vertices in different blocks are directed in accordance with the ordering. We show that this practice may lead to an inappropriate restriction of the search space and introduce the concept of labelled block ordering B corresponding to a family of B - consistent CGs in which every block may be either an undirected graph or a directed acyclic graph or, more generally, a CG. In this way we provide a flexible tool for specifying subsets of chain graphs, and we observe that the most relevant subsets of CGs considered in the literature are families of B -consistent CGs for the appropriate choice of B . Structural learning within a family of B -consistent CGs requires to deal with Markov equivalence. We provide a graphical characterization of equivalence classes of B -consistent CGs, namely the B - essential graphs , as well as a procedure to construct the B -essential graph for any given equivalence class of B -consistent chain graphs. Both largest CGs and essential graphs turn out to be special cases of B -essential graphs.     

论柏拉图“理念”论及其对中世纪基督教神学之影响

在柏拉图思想体系中,“理念”论是其核心,它充分彰显了古希腊人追问永恒、绝对之终极本体的渴求,尤其是其“两重世界”的划分和“善”的理念之绝对先验性和超越性以及“回忆说”表现出的一种神学倾向,与中世纪基督教思想一拍即合,为基督教中彼岸世界与上帝之“合理”存在和“光照论”提供了思想根基。在一定意义上说,柏拉图的“理念”论为中世纪基督教神学的产生提供了理论的核心。