The Generalized Conditional Autoregressive Wishart Model for Multivariate Realized Volatility

It is well known that in finance variances and covariances of asset returns move together over time. Recently, much interest has been aroused by an approach involving the use of the realized covariance (RCOV) matrix constructed from high-frequency returns as the ex-post realization of the covariance matrix of low-frequency returns. For the analysis of dynamics of RCOV matrices, we propose the generalized conditional autoregressive Wishart (GCAW) model. Both the noncentrality matrix and scale matrix of the Wishart distribution are driven by the lagged values of RCOV matrices, and represent two different sources of dynamics, respectively. The GCAW is a generalization of the existing models, and accounts for symmetry and positive definiteness of RCOV matrices without imposing any parametric restriction. Some important properties such as conditional moments, unconditional moments, and stationarity are discussed. Empirical examples including sequences of daily RCOV matrices from the New York Stock Exchange illustrate that our model outperforms the existing models in terms of model fitting and forecasting.     

Family support policies and child outcomes: a realist-scoping review*

Family support policies (FSP) refer to government policies that promote the well-being of families with children (e.g. job-protected paid leave, cash transfers, childcare). We developed an initial conceptual and theoretical framework of FSP and conducted a realist-scoping review to document the state of evidence regarding the influence of FSP on three child outcomes: poverty, development, and health. Based on the contexts and mechanisms through which FSP are hypothesized to affect child outcomes, we constructed a framework to guide a search of five electronic databases (OVID, ProQuest, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Knowledge). We analysed articles meeting our inclusion criteria (i.e. conceptualized FSP as a function of the welfare state; conceptualized child poverty, development, and health as outcomes; and conducted empirical analyses) in relation to our mechanisms and thematic concerns (context, developmental periods, and differential impacts). A total of 22 studies met our inclusion criteria, which tested 25 independent child outcomes. Our findings identified initial mechanisms that explain the relationship between FSP and child outcomes through (1) increasing parents’ basic capabilities, (2) shaping parents’ childcare options, and (3) influencing parental leave-taking and shifting beliefs about gender relationships in the home and workplace. Future work will be to test these mechanisms and framework through a realist synthesis.     

Predictors of Treatment Outcome Among Asian Pathological Gamblers (PGs): Clinical,Behavioural, Demographic,and Treatment Process Factors

Research on predictors of treatment outcome among pathological gamblers (PGs) is inconclusive and dominated by studies from Western countries. Using a prospective longitudinal design, the current study examined demographic, clinical, behavioural and treatment programme predictors of gambling frequency at 3, 6 and 12-months, among PGs treated at an addiction clinic in Singapore. Measures included the Hospital anxiety and depression scale, gambling symptom assessment scale (GSAS), personal well-being index (PWI), treatment perception questionnaire and gambling readiness to change scale. Treatment response in relation to changes in symptom severity, personal wellbeing and abstinence were also assessed. Abstinence rates were 38.6, 46.0 and 44.4 % at 3, 6 and 12-months respectively. Significant reductions in gambling frequency, GSAS, and improvement in PWI were reported between baseline and subsequent outcome assessments, with the greatest change occurring in the initial three months. No demographic, clinical, behavioural or treatment programme variable consistently predicted outcome at all three assessments, though treatment satisfaction was the most frequent significant predictor. However, being unemployed, having larger than average debts, poor treatment satisfaction and attending fewer sessions at the later stages of treatment were associated with significantly poorer outcomes, up to 1-year after initiating treatment. These findings show promise for the effectiveness of a CBT-based treatment approach for the treatment of predominantly Chinese PGs. Clinical implications and suggestions for future research are discussed. Taken together, the findings suggest early treatment satisfaction is paramount in improving short-term outcomes, with baseline gambling behaviour and treatment intensity playing a more significant role in the longer term.     

The Pursuit of Continuous Improvement in the Field of Intergenerational Relationships: The Discipline of the Second Curve

This article presents a case for the field of intergenerational relationships to embrace the challenges associated with progressing its reputation, boundaries, and potential in the twenty-first century. The concept of the Sigmoid curve based upon curvilinear logic and the discipline of the second curve is introduced as a means of understanding how individuals, organizations, and institutions need to deal with the challenge of constant renewal as a consequence of rapid social change. The field of intergenerational relationships is challenged to align itself with the discipline of the second curve by (1) improving the impact of research through knowledge-based transfer and (2) exploring new fields of inquiry in the interest of maintaining and advancing relevance and legitimacy.     

Learning from Japanese Experience in Aged Care Policy

Like Singapore, Japan is projected to age rapidly. Japan is the first country in the world where more than 20% of the total population is over 65. Even as Japan adapts from western Europe and America where population ageing is more advanced up till now, it has been pioneering its own aged care policy, given the differences in sociocultural and political contexts. Of particular interest is its introduction of long-term care insurance and its effectiveness in meeting the needs of the long-term care of the aged and their family caregivers. In this article I seek to compare and contrast Singapore and Japan in terms of their demographic changes leading to rapid ageing, and their respective policy and program responses to a rapidly ageing population, drawing lessons from the Japanese experience.     

Semi-parametric modelling of temperature records

A range of instrumental and proxy temperature records are examined semi-parametrically, using empirical densities and quantile autoregressions containing a unit root, to assess the extent of non-stationarity and the presence of global warming trends. Only the instrumental records covering the last century and a half show any evidence of non-stationarity, but the trend behaviour of these series remains elusive.     

Bayesian variable selection and regularization for time–frequency surface estimation

Summary.  We describe novel Bayesian models for time–frequency inverse modelling of non-stationary signals. These models are based on the idea of a Gabor regression , in which a time series is represented as a superposition of translated, modulated versions of a window function exhibiting good time–frequency concentration. As a necessary consequence, the resultant set of potential predictors is in general overcomplete—constituting a frame rather than a basis—and hence the resultant models require careful regularization through appropriate choices of variable selection schemes and prior distributions. We introduce prior specifications that are tailored to representative time series, and we develop effective Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for inference. To highlight the potential applications of such methods, we provide examples using two of the most distinctive time–frequency surfaces—speech and music signals—as well as standard test functions from the wavelet regression literature.     

查拉图斯特拉工程与道德的本质——论欧洲基因技术与克隆道德

基因技术增加了人类治愈由于身体和生物学原因所致疾病的可能性,但是并无助于社会心理问题或文化问题的解决,例如人类的道德教化问题.人类的道德行为与创造性是以自由为前提的.没有自由,人就不能进行创造并对自己的行为负责.朝向生物机器人的人的技术化是基因技术的幻象,这种生物机器人将人所处的环境和同伴相分离,因为除非将人杀死,否则人的意志不能被取消.人类求生之意志(生物系统之保存)是人类一切愿望的来源.倘若基因技术不能规定这一意志和人类独立的精神能力,那么通过基因技术实现人类的道德教化也无从设想."新人"在此只能表明生物学意义上的新特质,而不是道德或精神上的新特征.     

Sick building syndrome and perceived indoor environmental quality: A survey of apartment buildings in Hong Kong

The outbreak of a highly communicable disease, SARS, in Asia in 2003 has revealed the health risk of living in a high-density environment. To show the important connection between human health and environmental quality, this study surveys the prevalence of sick building syndrome (SBS) among apartment residents and their evaluation of indoor environmental quality (IEQ). Based on a sample of 748 households living in Hong Kong, two interesting findings are revealed: (1) nasal discomfort was the commonest home-related SBS symptom despite the absence of any central ventilation system in apartment buildings; (2) noise, rather than ventilation, was the major IEQ problem perceived by residents. Our statistical analysis further showed that residents with SBS symptoms were less satisfied with their IEQ than those without. That is, despite a positive evaluation of specific IEQ criteria with respect to the building residents lived in, if they reported feeling SBS related symptoms, the overall IEQ evaluation of their building could still be negative. This perception bias gives rise to a sample selection problem in measuring perceived IEQ, which has implications on housing management practices and the formulation of a healthy housing policy.