Inferring an Augmented Bayesian Network to Confront a Complex Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model with Durability Studies: Application to Bacillus Cereus on a Courgette Purée Production Chain

The Monte Carlo (MC) simulation approach is traditionally used in food safety risk assessment to study quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models. When experimental data are available, performing Bayesian inference is a good alternative approach that allows backward calculation in a stochastic QMRA model to update the experts’ knowledge about the microbial dynamics of a given food‐borne pathogen. In this article, we propose a complex example where Bayesian inference is applied to a high‐dimensional second‐order QMRA model. The case study is a farm‐to‐fork QMRA model considering genetic diversity of Bacillus cereus in a cooked, pasteurized, and chilled courgette purée. Experimental data are Bacillus cereus concentrations measured in packages of courgette purées stored at different time‐temperature profiles after pasteurization. To perform a Bayesian inference, we first built an augmented Bayesian network by linking a second‐order QMRA model to the available contamination data. We then ran a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to update all the unknown concentrations and unknown quantities of the augmented model. About 25% of the prior beliefs are strongly updated, leading to a reduction in uncertainty. Some updates interestingly question the QMRA model.     

Attitudes of Arab and Jewish mothers towards punitive and non‐punitive discipline methods

This study used data from 234 Jewish and Arab mothers in Israel to determine the association between cultural and socioeconomic factors on their views of punitive and non‐punitive discipline behaviours. Mothers highly approved the use of nonpunitive disciplines. For example, all mothers supported to explain to the child what the rules are to try to prevent misbehaviour; however, their support of punitive disciplines was not negligible. For instant, 15.32% approved spank, slap, smack or swat children; one out of 10 mothers endorsed using an object such as a paddle, hairbrush, belt, etc. on children. Mothers with lower levels of education (completing high school or lower) and Arab mothers approved the use of corporal punishment and psychological aggression more than others. More support and training are required for these families.     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Introduction into Spain via Legal Trade of Live Poultry

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is considered one of the most important diseases of poultry. During the last 9 years, HPAI epidemics have been reported in Asia, the Americas, Africa, and in 18 countries of the European Union (EU). For that reason, it is possible that the risk for HPAI virus (HPAIV) introduction into Spain may have recently increased. Because of the EU free‐trade policy and because legal trade of live poultry was considered an important route for HPAI spread in certain regions of the world, there are fears that Spain may become HPAIV‐infected as a consequence of the legal introduction of live poultry. However, no quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into Spain or into any other EU member state via the trade of poultry has been published in the peer‐reviewed literature. This article presents the results of the first quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into a free country via legal trade of live poultry, along with estimates of the geographical variation of the risk and of the relative contribution of exporting countries and susceptible poultry species to the risk. The annual mean risk for HPAI introduction into Spain was estimated to be as low as 1.36 × 10⁻³, suggesting that under prevailing conditions, introduction of HPAIV into Spain through the trade of live poultry is unlikely to occur. Moreover, these results support the hypothesis that legal trade of live poultry does not impose a significant risk for the spread of HPAI into EU member states.     

Conference reports

The lack of women engaging themselves in science has been thoroughly discussed in feminist and nonfeminist science studies. It has remained a mystery why so few female students take professional careers as scientists. Though more and more female students enroll in physics studies, for example, they seem to disappear before they reach academic positions. Instead of discussing this as a query of gender inequality in this article, I discuss the more general issues of inclusion and exclusion in communities of practices. I argue that selection mechanisms in a group of students can be connected to their premises for engaging themselves in an activity. As students have different embodied experiences, they also have different premises for engaging themselves. What seems like the same practice can, in fact, be analyzed as practices belonging to different activities. This approach might bring us a small step further in the discussions of the relations between gender and science.     

Critical Theorist,Postmodernist and Social Constructionist Paradigms in Organizational Analysis: A Paradigmatic Review of Organizational Learning Literature

In an effort to clarify alternative approaches to organizational analysis, this paper is concerned to stimulate the debate on how an inquiry into organizational phenomena, in general, and organizational learning, in particular, can be accomplished. Encouraging attention to different aspects of various paradigmatic approaches, the paper focuses on critical theory, postmodernism and social constructionism and how these paradigms have contributed and can contribute to the research in the subject domain of organizational learning. To this end, a paradigmatic review of the literature on organizational learning is offered in this paper. Organizational learning, as the study of learning processes of, and within, organizations, has attracted significant attention in academe since the early 1980s. There is a plethora of studies on organizational learning, which offer rich material for a paradigmatic review. This study highlights the need for further development of the field from alternative paradigmatic perspectives, with a view to generating more insights into the multifaceted, complex and changing nature of learning in contemporary organizations.     

Intuition in Management Research: A Historical Review

In this historical review we chart the progress of intuition research over the past eight decades. We highlight the distinction between intuition research in management and intuition research in base disciplines and related fields, and offer a critical commentary on the ways in which the dynamic between these two historical threads has affected progress in the study of intuition in organizations. We conclude by identifying several promising new directions for intuition research, and offer a number of recommendations to intuition researchers in management which may help in taking this topic forward in ways that do not recapitulate previous errors, diversions or digressions.     

Global Sensitivity Analysis Applied to a Contamination Assessment Model of Listeria monocytogenes in Cold Smoked Salmon at Consumption

In this study, a variance‐based global sensitivity analysis method was first applied to a contamination assessment model of Listeria monocytogenes in cold smoked vacuum packed salmon at consumption. The impact of the choice of the modeling approach (populational or cellular) of the primary and secondary models as well as the effect of their associated input factors on the final contamination level was investigated. Results provided a subset of important factors, including the food water activity, its storage temperature, and duration in the domestic refrigerator. A refined sensitivity analysis was then performed to rank the important factors, tested over narrower ranges of variation corresponding to their current distributions, using three techniques: ANOVA, Spearman correlation coefficient, and partial least squares regression. Finally, the refined sensitivity analysis was used to rank the important factors.     

Life‐Course Transitions and the Age Profile of Internal Migration

Despite underlying regularities in the age profile of migration, there is mounting evidence of cross‐national variations in the ages at which migration occurs. Explanations for these differences have variously been sought by reference to cultural, social, and economic factors, and through analysis of reasons for moving. There is also a growing body of work linking migration events to particular transitions in the life course. We set out a conceptual framework that links contextual factors to the age structure of migration through life‐course transitions that act as proximate determinants of the age at migration. We propose metrics to capture the prevalence, timing, and spread of four key life‐course transitions: education completion, labor force entry, union formation, and first childbearing. We then seek to quantitatively establish the link between these indicators and the age and intensity of internal migration at its peak for a global sample of 27 countries. Correlation and factor analysis reveal substantial diversity in the timing and spread of transitions to adult roles, and show that cross‐national differences in the age profile of migration closely parallel variations in the age structure of the life course for over two‐thirds of countries. Migration age profiles are aligned with transitions to adulthood for both sexes but most strongly among women.