Forecasting Immigration in Official Population Projections Using an Econometric Model

Although substantial research has been conducted to quantify the determinants of international migration, most official population projections do not include such determinants in a formal migration model. Statistics Norway forecasts gross immigration to Norway using an econometric model based on standard migration theories. The main variables include income level, unemployment, and population size in Norway and the sending countries, and the number of immigrants already living in Norway. Projections of exogenous variables are drawn from international and Norwegian sources. Three different alternatives are specified for the income variables, leading to three different forecasts for gross immigration until 2100.     

Collaborative innovation: the decade that radically changed drilling performance

This article sheds light on key factors associated with innovations that are mainly based on experiential learning. The history of a company engaged in the offshore oil and gas industry exemplifies the points: Hitec started out as a small company with limited financial resources, but over a 10-year period, its innovations and improvements radically transformed offshore oil and gas drilling operations. An evolutionary methodological approach is balanced by theoretically informed analysis. A main finding is that customer–supplier interaction was crucial. Hitec's success, crowned by its eventual acquisition by American capital, can be attributed in part to the know-how and technology provided by one of its suppliers and partners during the early phase. However, it has also depended on a series of other factors: a flexible, motivated and creative organisation; targeting of the right know-how; being part of a cluster and thus enjoying easy access to important customers and suppliers as well as easy, informal flow of ideas and information; developers and entrepreneurs prepared to take risks; being in the right place at the right time; a good measure of luck; the underdeveloped state of American drilling control technology; Norwegian oil and gas policies supportive of domestic technological companies; and proximity to research labs which were conducting full-scale tests of drilling operations. An invention made by regional researchers can also be linked to Hitec's innovation of a drilling control system. The relevance of the article is its contribution to a better understanding of the complexity involved in the implementation of major practice-based innovations – a process which includes identifying and creating ideas; finding a market/customer and putting the ideas into practice.     

Telling Others How You Live—Refining Goffman's Stigma Theory Through an Analysis of Housing Strugglers in a Homeowner Nation

This article revisits Goffman's stigma theory from the perspective of housing studies. We elaborate on Goffman's approach by exploring how housing tenure can work as a proxy for moral character. We interviewed twenty‐seven people who are excluded from access to homeownership in two cities in Norway, which is a “homeowner nation.” These individuals are unable to enter the dominant “homeowner class” for different reasons, including drug‐dependency, mental illness, refugee background, low socioeconomic status; thus, they must access housing through other tenures; private renting or social housing. To many of them, housing becomes a stigma, in Goffman terms, an “undesired differentness.” Social housing is known to carry stigma in Norway. It was thus a paradox, that those with the softest differentness—private rental—were most likely to practice (Goffman:) “information control” over their housing situation. Goffman's theoretical apparatus, and his distinction between the discreditable and the discredited in particular, helped us make this paradox comprehensible. Through this analysis, refinements to Goffman's theory were discovered. We suggest that “multiple stigmas,” which was not seen clearly by Goffman himself, should be a key notion in stigma studies. We use this notion to distinguish between possible sub‐types to the discredited‐discreditable distinction.     

Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and Risk Management

This is a perspective article on foundational issues in risk assessment and management. The aim is to discuss the needs, obstacles, and challenges for the establishment of a renewed, strong scientific foundation for risk assessment and risk management suited for the current and future technological challenges. The focus is on (i) reviewing and discussing the present situation and (ii) identifying how to best proceed in the future, to develop the risk discipline in the directions needed. The article provides some reflections on the interpretation and understanding of the concept of “foundations of risk assessment and risk management” and the challenges therein. One main recommendation is that different arenas and moments for discussion are needed to specifically address foundational issues in a way that embraces the many disciplinary communities involved (from social scientists to engineers, from behavioral scientists to statisticians, from health physicists to lawyers, etc.). One such opportunity is sought in the constitution of a novel specialty group of the Society of Risk Analysis.     

On How to Deal with Deep Uncertainties in a Risk Assessment and Management Context

Recently, several authors have presented interesting contributions on how to meet deep or severe uncertainties in a risk analysis setting. In this article, we provide some reflections on some of the foundational pillars that this work is based on, including the meaning of concepts such as deep uncertainty, known probabilities, and correct models, the aim being to contribute to a strengthening of the scientific platform of the work, as well as providing new insights on how to best implement management policies meeting these uncertainties. We also provide perspectives on the boundaries and limitations of analytical approaches for supporting decision making in cases of deep uncertainties. A main conclusion of the article is that deep uncertainties call for managerial review and judgment that sees beyond the analytical frameworks studied in risk assessment and risk management contexts, including those now often suggested to be used, such as robust optimization techniques. This managerial review and judgment should be seen as a basic element of the risk management.     

Guaranteed Conditional Performance of Control Charts via Bootstrap Methods

To use control charts in practice, the in‐control state usually has to be estimated. This estimation has a detrimental effect on the performance of control charts, which is often measured by the false alarm probability or the average run length. We suggest an adjustment of the monitoring schemes to overcome these problems. It guarantees, with a certain probability, a conditional performance given the estimated in‐control state. The suggested method is based on bootstrapping the data used to estimate the in‐control state. The method applies to different types of control charts, and also works with charts based on regression models. If a non‐parametric bootstrap is used, the method is robust to model errors. We show large sample properties of the adjustment. The usefulness of our approach is demonstrated through simulation studies.     

Development NGOs: Actors in a Global Civil Society or in a New International Social System?

The international aid system forms a powerful structural force impacting organizational landscapes and civil societies all over the world in complex ways we do not yet understand. Dominant NGO research has failed to properly address this crucial issue, because of a conceptual, theoretical, and ideological tradition that is itself embedded in this very same system's normative, rhetorical agenda. This paper suggests some conceptual and theoretical approaches that should encourage more comparative research on the role of the development NGOs in shaping national and global civil societies     

An Evaluation of the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainties in the IPCC Reports on Climate Change

Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided.     

Risk analysis under attack: How risk science can address the legal,social, and reputational liabilities faced by risk analysts

The role of the risk analyst is critical in understanding and managing uncertainty. However, there is another type of uncertainty that is rarely discussed: The legal, social, and reputational liabilities of the risk analyst. Recent events have shown that professionals participating in risk analysis can be held personally liable. It is timely and important to ask: How can risk science guide risk analysis with consideration of those liabilities, particularly in response to emerging and unprecedented risk. This paper studies this topic by: (1) Categorizing how professionals with risk analysis responsibilities have historically been held liable, and (2) developing a framework to address uncertainty related to those potential liabilities. The result of this framework will enable individual analysts and organizations to investigate and manage the expectations of risk analysts and others as they apply risk principles and methods. This paper will be of interest to risk researchers, risk professionals, and industry professionals who seek maturity within their risk programs.