Poll of Polls: A Compositional Loess Model

A large number of polls on party preferences are published today. In order to obtain an estimate of the changes in political opinion, the polls may be combined into a poll of polls. We discuss a method for combining polls using the fact that they are compositions and respecting the properties of the compositional sample space (the simplex). The method is easily implemented and the estimate may be computed in linear time. We provide an example with Swedish data from year 2007 to 2010. The method also allows us to present the deviations between the estimated compositions and the observed. In the data set, we note, for example, differences between different polling institutes.     

Adult adjustment problems of separated children: a longitudinal study from birth to the age of 23 years

The study investigated the risk of adult criminality, alcohol abuse and mental health problems (between 18 and 23 years of age) that were associated with a) the number of separations to which a child had been subjected, b) age at separation and c) the sex of the child. Data were used from a Swedish longitudinal study of a large representative sample. It was found that: 1) experiencing a separation during childhood was associated with a significantly increased risk of later maladjustment for all 3 adjustment problems; 2) the risk increased approximately additively with the number of separation events experienced during childhood; and 3) for all 3 adjustment problems, the risks were largest in the case of early (before age 7) and late (age 12-16) separations and there was not any significant risk increase arising from separations in the intervening age period. These risk increase patterns were similar for males and females, but the levels differed, since male sex in itself almost quadrupled the odds for later criminality and alcohol abuse.     

The effect of current sexual behavior on friendship,dating, and marriage desirability

The purpose of this research was to extend previous studies examining the influence of a person's sexual behavior on others' perceptions of his/ her relationship desirability. Over 750 students from three universities judged the friendship, dating, and marriage desirability of a person based on information ostensibly provided by him/her about current sexual activity. Overall, the results indicated that a target person portrayed as engaging in low sexual activity in a current relationship was perceived to be more desirable as a friend and marriage partner than a person engaging in moderate or high sexual activity, whereas moderate or high sexual activity was preferred more in a dating partner. Whether the sexual activity occurred in a casual or steady dating relationship, however, also affected desirability perceptions. Finally, evidence was found for a reverse double standard in ratings of dating desirability: males were perceived as most desirable as a date when they engaged in moderate sexual activity, whereas females were perceived as most desirable as a date when they engaged in high sexual activity.     

Probability of living through a period of economic instability

Welfare Based on Assets, a Way to Smooth Out Economic Instability and Develop Children's Human Capital is a four-part series of reports that focuses on the relationship between economic instability (i.e., income shocks, asset shocks, home loss, and asset poverty) and children's human capital development. Collectively, these reports build on the compelling observation that the pattern low-income families walk into is a present time oriented or consumption based pattern of behavior; in contrast, the pattern higher income families walk into is future oriented or asset based. In this first paper we find that between 2005 and 2009 the probability of a low-income child living through an income shock is between 43% (major shock) and 55% (minor shock). In contrast, the chance of a high-income child experiencing an income shock is between 6% (major shock) and 15% (minor shock) during the same period. We also find that the probability that a child will experience a net worth asset shock close to doubles for a child living in a black or low-income family between 2005 and 2009 when compared to 2000 and 2004. Policy implications are discussed.     

Accumulating assets,debts in young adulthood: Children as potential future investors

Child Development Accounts (CDA) aim to open savings accounts in childhood as a way to lay a foundation for building assets in young adulthood and beyond. Mainstream banks may be key partners in opening the accounts in which children can build assets. While children may have limited savings to invest initially, they may increasingly invest over time by accumulating assets and debts through mainstream banks. Mainstream banks may benefit from children's increasing investments. This paper uses propensity score weighted, longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and its supplements to examine savings, assets, debt, and net worth accumulation of young adults and whether or not they accumulate more when they have savings accounts as children. Young adults accumulate a median of $1000 in savings accounts, $4600 in total assets, $965 in debt (excluding student loans), and $4000 in net worth (excluding student loans). Young adults accumulate more savings and total assets when they have savings accounts as children. They accumulate less debt and more net worth when their households accumulate high net worth.     

Resource Accessibility and Walkability Among Older Adults in Extended-Stay Hotels

Older adults represent a large and growing population group in the United States. This population cohort is projected to grow to 72.1 million, or 19% of the total population, by 2030, up from 40 million in 2010 (Administration on Aging, 2011; Federal Interagency Forum on Aging-Related Statistics, 2012). Despite reported decreases in the proportion of older adults living in poverty in recent years, inequities prevail. Approximately 40% of older American households reported housing cost burdens¹Cost burdens are expenditures on housing and utilities that exceed 30% of household income. (Federal Interagency Forum on Aging-Related Statistics, 2012). Many of these low-income older adults live in socially and economically marginalized positions, and housing them remains a major challenge complicated by (a) limited affordable housing options and (b) chronic health conditions that seriously undermine long-term health and mobility. In a study on the impacts of public housing transformation in Atlanta, Oakley, Reid, & Ruel (2011) reported that 26% of seniors entered public housing because of a health condition or disability. According to Smith (2006), seniors in public housing are in worse health than other older Americans, even other poor older Americans suffering from such chronic health conditions as hypertension, diabetes, arthritis, and asthma. Despite these realities, Ball (2012) has noted that older adults receive little attention in comprehensive development planning beyond specialized age-segregated retirement and care communities. Salkin (2009) echoes similar concerns about the tendency toward housing initiatives and designs for more affluent older adults. She commented that most states have focused attention on programs that are best suited for seniors who do not have the same income limitations as those who are truly on fixed incomes and living close to the poverty level (Salkin, 2009). While public housing remains the predominant affordable housing option for low-income older adults, such housing is out of reach for many low-income older adults who find themselves displaced and homeless. As a result, some of these adults move into extended-stay hotels to remain sheltered.