Assessment of Catastrophic Risk Using Bayesian Network Constructed from Domain Knowledge and Spatial Data

Prediction of natural disasters and their consequences is difficult due to the uncertainties and complexity of multiple related factors. This article explores the use of domain knowledge and spatial data to construct a Bayesian network (BN) that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and quantification of uncertainties within a consistent system for assessment of catastrophic risk. A BN is chosen due to its advantages such as merging multiple source data and domain knowledge in a consistent system, learning from the data set, inference with missing data, and support of decision making. A key advantage of our methodology is the combination of domain knowledge and learning from the data to construct a robust network. To improve the assessment, we employ spatial data analysis and data mining to extend the training data set, select risk factors, and fine‐tune the network. Another major advantage of our methodology is the integration of an optimal discretizer, informative feature selector, learners, search strategies for local topologies, and Bayesian model averaging. These techniques all contribute to a robust prediction of risk probability of natural disasters. In the flood disaster's study, our methodology achieved a better probability of detection of high risk, a better precision, and a better ROC area compared with other methods, using both cross‐validation and prediction of catastrophic risk based on historic data. Our results suggest that BN is a good alternative for risk assessment and as a decision tool in the management of catastrophic risk.     

RDS的接收技术

讨论了广播多工（ＲＤＳ）的接收技术，给出了接收机的基本结构，它包括载波层、调制层、基带层的硬件结构，以及信号层（或数据层）的软件实现，并以自己的方法建立了样机模型。整个系统和ＥＢＶ的ＲＤＳ规范同我国刚制定的ＲＤＳ规范一致。     

Willingness to speak out about gay laws reform: some cause for optimism

We examined the extent to which people's private attitudes to gay law reform are influenced by the attitudes of others. Ninety-six university students were told that they were either in a minority or in a majority relative to their university group on their attitudes to gay law reform. Contrary to a number of assumptions made in the social psychological literature, participants who supported gay law reform were more prepared to act in line with their attitudes than were those who opposed gay law reform. Furthermore, anti-gay law reform participants appeared to reassess their attitudes when they were told they were in a minority; in contrast, pro-gay law reform participants were unaffected by the group norm. This suggests that anti-gay law reform attitudes are softer and more easily influenced than are pro-gay law reform attitudes. The implications of these results for activists are discussed.     

Public attitudes toward the use of psychiatric medications for children

Psychiatric medication use for children has increased dramatically over the past three decades. Despite substantial media attention to the issue, little is known about how the lay public feels about the use of psychiatric medications for children. Drawing on theories of medicalization, we describe and analyze Americans' attitudes towards the use of psychiatric medications generally and Prozac specifically for children described as having three types of behavioral problems. Using data from the 1998 General Social Survey's Pressing Issues in Health and Medical Care Module, we find that more Americans (57%) are willing to use psychiatric medications for children who have expressed suicidal statements than for "oppositional" behaviors (34.2%) or for hyperactivity (29.5%). Across the board, respondents are less willing to give Prozac than the general class of psychiatric medications. While socio-demographics do little to identify Americans with differing positions, the strongest and most consistent correlates of willingness to give psychiatric medications to children are trust in personal physicians, general attitudes towards psychiatric medications, and the respondent's expressed willingness to take psychiatric medications herself or himself.     

What do employers think about employing people with experience of mental illness in New Zealand workplaces?

The researchers investigated employers' experiences with individuals with a mental illness and in their workplaces. Seventy-two business owners or human resource managers were interviewed. Most knew the prospective employee's health background prior to deciding to employ them. The majority of the reported experiences with employed individuals were very positive. Key strategies the employers or managers reported using to support employees were: to create trustworthy relationships, to work through issues and to seek external support.     

Practical Methods for Meeting Remediation Goals at Hazardous Waste Sites

Risk-based cleanup goals or preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) are established at hazardous waste sites when contaminant concentrations in air, soil, surface water, or groundwater exceed specified acceptable risk levels. When derived in accordance with the Environmental Protection Agency's risk assessment guidance, the PRG is intended to represent the average contaminant concentration within an exposure unit area that is left on the site following remediation. The PRG, however, frequently has been used inconsistently at Superfund sites with a number of remediation decisions using the PRG as a not-to-exceed concentration (NTEC). Such misapplications could result in overly conservative and unnecessarily costly remedial actions. The PRG should be applied in remedial actions in the same manner in which it was generated. Statistical methods, such as Bower's Confidence Response Goal, and mathematical methods such as "iterative removal of hot spots," are available to assist in the development of NTECs that ensure the average postremediation contaminant concentration is at or below the PRG. These NTECs can provide the risk manager with a more practical cleanup goal. In addition, an acute PRG can be developed to ensure that contaminant concentrations left on-site following remediation are not so high as to pose an acute or short-term health risk if excessive exposure to small areas of the site should occur. A case study demonstrates cost savings of five to ten times associated with the more scientifically sound use of the PRG as a postremediation site average, and development of a separate NTEC and acute PRG based on the methods referenced in this article.     

Uncle Long Legs' Letter Box; A Letter Counseling Service for Children in Hong Kong

During the growing up process, children face many challenges. They need support and guidance from adults whom they can trust. Uncle Long Legs' Letter Box provides a letter counseling service for children aged from around 10 to 14 years, who are mainly studying in primary four to junior secondary school. Using letters as the medium, children are encouraged to seek help from Uncle Long Legs when they are facing problems related to family, friendship, and study. In letters, children are often more willing to disclose their personal feelings and problems than they are in face-to-face contacts. The project was started in 1994 in a children and youth center. Up to July 2001, more than fifteen thousand letters have been received from about eight thousand children. Now the service has expanded to five centers and about 120 volunteer counselors are involved. This article summarizes the working experience of Uncle Long Legs' Letter Box and discusses the strengths and limitations of letter counseling to children.     

The Significance of Community to Business Social Responsibility1

Abstract In this paper, I focus attention on one aspect of business social responsibility, the relationship between businesses and community. Specifically, I explore the impact of business operators' perceptions about norms of collective action in their communities on the level of their support for and commitment to their communities. This relationship was elaborated using data from interviews with 1,008 business owners and managers randomly selected from 30 small Iowa communities (500 to 10,000 in population). Findings indicate the majority of small business operators report that they are committed to and provide support for their community. Also, it is concluded that operators' educational levels and lengths of residence, the success and age of their businesses, and their perceptions of community levels of collective action are significantly associated with levels of business social responsibility.